That's a given

Doubt it.

Keep in mind this:

Holidays can be expected to sell as much as the YTD for the rest of the year.

thats 12.8 year sales PS4, 4.6 year sales XB1

add that to 4.4 PS4 2013, 3.1 XB1 2013

17.2 PS4 vs 7.7 XB1 at the end of this year as a rough minimum estimate.

Meaning XB1 being 2.3 away from 10 mil while PS4 would be 2.8 mill away from 20 mil.

Likely, XB1 will hit 10 mil before PS4 20 million, but another thing to consider is whoever announces it first, not to mention MS is less likely to announce 10 mill if Sony is anywhere near 20 Mil.

to early to call but as mentioned ps4 has been selling 2.5-3-1 against the xb1 WW weekly so thats something to think about

dont think ps4 will hit 20M sold by years end i have it at 18-19M

for xb1 i need to see how it will do when cod aw and when all the other holiday 3rd party games release i just dont know if its sales will pick up much

but i would assume xb1 will be able to get to 10M fast then ps4 to 20M as of right now
rough estimates

oct ps4 1-1.5M xb1 .7M
nov. ps4 3M xb1 2M
dec ps4 4M xb1 2.2- 2.7M

and whatever is left for sept

Umm, I follow your logic up until you said XB1 will hit 10 mil before PS4 20 million .

Let's say we use June as a baseline month (XB1 pricecut month!):

- PS4 June 756k
- XB1 June 306k

At those rates...

- PS4 will sell 2.8mil in 3.7 months.
- XB1 will sell 2.3mil in 7.5 months.

So PS4 would reach it's milestone in half the time...

and thats why i said that i think its possible.

I'm completely disregarding anything but YTD sales, because I consider monthly sales dependent on too many variables.

There isn't really any way to predict the weekly rates without wild guessing so, I use the rate of sales of consoles in general in holidays, selling the same amount in holidays as they did the rest of the year. So at minimum their is a 500k difference in favor of the One by the start of 2015, right now neither are trending towards 20/10 mill before January 2015.

I'm certain that it will.

I feel like I should say no, because it seems like a ridiculous notion. But it seems quite possible if you look at sales trends through this year. Year to date PS4 is approaching 3:1 over Xb one and it's so close to 2:1 LTD already it just seems likely that the 2:1 thing will be a reality, and probably more than 2:1 as time goes by. Weird, I would not have picked that before the gen started, and even at the beginning of 2014 I would not have picked PS4 to be more than 2:1 ahead of both of the other consoles.

I think it's quite likely that PS4 beats XBO to the 20M/10M separation.

Why? Because XBO has had a number of smaller bumps that skewed things out of the ordinary.

(1)- HUGE marketing push + Titanfall giveaway to try to win March. Even though it didn't win, it did push what, 500k global extra sales probably because of this?

(2)- Tier2 launch and some extra attempts to juice the numbers (free game weekend, limited Madden bundle). These were extremely temporary measures (as next weeks numbers will show).

(3)- 2014 sales in isolation show that the rate of sales is WAY past 2:1 globally in favor of PS4. This will continue easily throughout 2015, and actually may accelerate as smaller markets begin to push XBO off the shelves. Stores are VERY smart about how to use their limited shelf space, and if something doesn't move, they can and will move quickly to reduce the space for slow sellers, and expand space for faster sellers. Hell, here in Texas earlier tonight I noticed something at Walmart.

Before they had 3 Xbox cases and an Xbox One Kiosk/half case. The three cases were the standard floor to ~9' full height lockcases, and one was dedicated for XBO games, while the other two were 360 stuff, along with a slight overflow of XBO accessories near the bottom. The half case across the aisle had an XBO demo station and under that a lock case where the XBO consoles were kept.

Now : the XBO demo kiosk and half-case is totally gone, and the XBO consoles are stuffed into one of the remaining full height cases, along with all of the XBO software and accessories. Towards the bottom, there are some overflow of 360 software titles. The other Xbox full height case is 100% 360 stuff.

The PS section expanded to take one of the old Xbox cases, and is now about 55/45% split between PS4 and PS3, with a single sad row of Vita (poor Vita). I think I also spotted one or two ancient PSP titles in there.

Now say what you will about Walmart, but they're not the world's largest retailer because they're dumb about how they merchandise things. They have some of the most sophisticated stock management and analysis infrastructure on earth, and the reason they did that is because XBO is failing relative to previous expectations.

Now think about that for a minute. This is the heart of Xbox country previously, and it's solidly a PS4 advantage now. What about Europe, Japan, South America, SE Asia, etc? Do you think little shops with limited space will continue to stock Xbox stuff that sits there for ages until it has to be clearanced? Hell no.

(4)- Xbox One was HUGELY front loaded. There were a core group of Xbox fans that would have bought a box full of cow patties so long as it had the Xbox logo on it. The same is true of a core group of PS and Nintendo fans. We all know who these people are. And that let XBO have honestly a GREAT Nov/Dec 2013. But what's happened since then? I'll tell you what :

To date, more XBOs were sold in 2013 than in 2014. The extreme front-loading of the demand meant that the core fans got theirs, and it's been largely languishing ever since, and outright failing in Europe.

3,066,449 XB1s were sold in 2013, and 2,341,188 have been sold in 2014. See the problem? Compare to :

4,409,596 PS4s were sold in 2013, and 6,400,495 have been sold in 2014. MUCH more consistent demand.

Now let's say that XBO has 3 good months this year, starting from (let's be generous) 5.5M on October 1st. Let's say that they average out to 1M/month globally (obviously most of their sales are from US/UK by a huge margin). What does that give us? 8.5M. Now you have a situation where you're starting 2015 1M+ in the hole away from 10M. PS4 will start at around 18M or so. Now in 2015, with the long-term demand problems we've seen from XBO, do you think PS4 will sell 2M before XBO sells 1.5M?

You'd have to be an insane person to think that XBO will sell anywhere close to fast enough. Need I remind you of 2014 YTD sales for both?

6,400,495 PS4
2,341,188 XBO

That's right, XBO has sold LESS than 37% of PS4's rate for the year so far. Nearly 3 PS4s have sold for every single XBO. 2015 won't change this, in fact, it will probably accelerate.

I'll go further and say : PS4 will hit 50M before XBO hits 20M, and 100M before XBO hits 50 (spoiler : XBO will never get to 50M).

I actually think when the XOne gets to ten million, PS4 lifetime will be closing in on twenty million.