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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Will PS4 reach 20M HW sales before Xbone reaches 10M?

Norris2k on 21 September 2014
Arkaign said:
I think it's quite likely that PS4 beats XBO to the 20M/10M separation.

Why? Because XBO has had a number of smaller bumps that skewed things out of the ordinary.

(1)- HUGE marketing push + Titanfall giveaway to try to win March. Even though it didn't win, it did push what, 500k global extra sales probably because of this?

(2)- Tier2 launch and some extra attempts to juice the numbers (free game weekend, limited Madden bundle). These were extremely temporary measures (as next weeks numbers will show).

(3)- 2014 sales in isolation show that the rate of sales is WAY past 2:1 globally in favor of PS4. This will continue easily throughout 2015, and actually may accelerate as smaller markets begin to push XBO off the shelves. Stores are VERY smart about how to use their limited shelf space, and if something doesn't move, they can and will move quickly to reduce the space for slow sellers, and expand space for faster sellers. Hell, here in Texas earlier tonight I noticed something at Walmart.

Before they had 3 Xbox cases and an Xbox One Kiosk/half case. The three cases were the standard floor to ~9' full height lockcases, and one was dedicated for XBO games, while the other two were 360 stuff, along with a slight overflow of XBO accessories near the bottom. The half case across the aisle had an XBO demo station and under that a lock case where the XBO consoles were kept.

Now : the XBO demo kiosk and half-case is totally gone, and the XBO consoles are stuffed into one of the remaining full height cases, along with all of the XBO software and accessories. Towards the bottom, there are some overflow of 360 software titles. The other Xbox full height case is 100% 360 stuff.

The PS section expanded to take one of the old Xbox cases, and is now about 55/45% split between PS4 and PS3, with a single sad row of Vita (poor Vita). I think I also spotted one or two ancient PSP titles in there.

Now say what you will about Walmart, but they're not the world's largest retailer because they're dumb about how they merchandise things. They have some of the most sophisticated stock management and analysis infrastructure on earth, and the reason they did that is because XBO is failing relative to previous expectations.

Now think about that for a minute. This is the heart of Xbox country previously, and it's solidly a PS4 advantage now. What about Europe, Japan, South America, SE Asia, etc? Do you think little shops with limited space will continue to stock Xbox stuff that sits there for ages until it has to be clearanced? Hell no.

(4)- Xbox One was HUGELY front loaded. There were a core group of Xbox fans that would have bought a box full of cow patties so long as it had the Xbox logo on it. The same is true of a core group of PS and Nintendo fans. We all know who these people are. And that let XBO have honestly a GREAT Nov/Dec 2013. But what's happened since then? I'll tell you what :

To date, more XBOs were sold in 2013 than in 2014. The extreme front-loading of the demand meant that the core fans got theirs, and it's been largely languishing ever since, and outright failing in Europe.

3,066,449 XB1s were sold in 2013, and 2,341,188 have been sold in 2014. See the problem? Compare to :

4,409,596 PS4s were sold in 2013, and 6,400,495 have been sold in 2014. MUCH more consistent demand.

Now let's say that XBO has 3 good months this year, starting from (let's be generous) 5.5M on October 1st. Let's say that they average out to 1M/month globally (obviously most of their sales are from US/UK by a huge margin). What does that give us? 8.5M. Now you have a situation where you're starting 2015 1M+ in the hole away from 10M. PS4 will start at around 18M or so. Now in 2015, with the long-term demand problems we've seen from XBO, do you think PS4 will sell 2M before XBO sells 1.5M?

You'd have to be an insane person to think that XBO will sell anywhere close to fast enough. Need I remind you of 2014 YTD sales for both?

6,400,495 PS4
2,341,188 XBO

That's right, XBO has sold LESS than 37% of PS4's rate for the year so far. Nearly 3 PS4s have sold for every single XBO. 2015 won't change this, in fact, it will probably accelerate.

I'll go further and say : PS4 will hit 50M before XBO hits 20M, and 100M before XBO hits 50 (spoiler : XBO will never get to 50M).

I agree on that ! Especially, the PS4 becoming the de facto standard, and the XOne near irrelevance in Europe. It makes the situation for the XOne far worst than what the data show for the average sales on 2014-2015. I can't think about anything that would make me believe that the XOne can achieve 1:2.



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platformmaster918 on 21 September 2014

I think PS4 will reach 20m this holiday and Xbox will reach 10m as well this holiday. It'll be close but PS4 keeps pleasantly surprising so we shall see! Haven't been able to set an expectation too large yet! (thought it would reach 10m Destiny week)




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GribbleGrunger on 21 September 2014
cheryl said:

i have no idea, but im sure ps4 at the end of the years the total sales will be around 13 million.

about microsoft...

once again they will reduce the price of xbox one..

november or december at $349

The PS4 is already passed 11 million so you expect the PS4 to only sell 2 million for the rest of this year? Could you explain why you think the PS4 will suddenly start selling less during the busiest time of the year for consoles?

I think you're 3m - 4m short of the mark. Possibly even more.



 

The PS5 Exists. 


ICStats on 21 September 2014
Norris2k said:
Arkaign said:
I think it's quite likely that PS4 beats XBO to the 20M/10M separation.

Why? Because XBO has had a number of smaller bumps that skewed things out of the ordinary.

(1)- HUGE marketing push + Titanfall giveaway to try to win March. Even though it didn't win, it did push what, 500k global extra sales probably because of this?

(2)- Tier2 launch and some extra attempts to juice the numbers (free game weekend, limited Madden bundle). These were extremely temporary measures (as next weeks numbers will show).

(3)- 2014 sales in isolation show that the rate of sales is WAY past 2:1 globally in favor of PS4. This will continue easily throughout 2015, and actually may accelerate as smaller markets begin to push XBO off the shelves. Stores are VERY smart about how to use their limited shelf space, and if something doesn't move, they can and will move quickly to reduce the space for slow sellers, and expand space for faster sellers. Hell, here in Texas earlier tonight I noticed something at Walmart.

Before they had 3 Xbox cases and an Xbox One Kiosk/half case. The three cases were the standard floor to ~9' full height lockcases, and one was dedicated for XBO games, while the other two were 360 stuff, along with a slight overflow of XBO accessories near the bottom. The half case across the aisle had an XBO demo station and under that a lock case where the XBO consoles were kept.

Now : the XBO demo kiosk and half-case is totally gone, and the XBO consoles are stuffed into one of the remaining full height cases, along with all of the XBO software and accessories. Towards the bottom, there are some overflow of 360 software titles. The other Xbox full height case is 100% 360 stuff.

The PS section expanded to take one of the old Xbox cases, and is now about 55/45% split between PS4 and PS3, with a single sad row of Vita (poor Vita). I think I also spotted one or two ancient PSP titles in there.

Now say what you will about Walmart, but they're not the world's largest retailer because they're dumb about how they merchandise things. They have some of the most sophisticated stock management and analysis infrastructure on earth, and the reason they did that is because XBO is failing relative to previous expectations.

Now think about that for a minute. This is the heart of Xbox country previously, and it's solidly a PS4 advantage now. What about Europe, Japan, South America, SE Asia, etc? Do you think little shops with limited space will continue to stock Xbox stuff that sits there for ages until it has to be clearanced? Hell no.

(4)- Xbox One was HUGELY front loaded. There were a core group of Xbox fans that would have bought a box full of cow patties so long as it had the Xbox logo on it. The same is true of a core group of PS and Nintendo fans. We all know who these people are. And that let XBO have honestly a GREAT Nov/Dec 2013. But what's happened since then? I'll tell you what :

To date, more XBOs were sold in 2013 than in 2014. The extreme front-loading of the demand meant that the core fans got theirs, and it's been largely languishing ever since, and outright failing in Europe.

3,066,449 XB1s were sold in 2013, and 2,341,188 have been sold in 2014. See the problem? Compare to :

4,409,596 PS4s were sold in 2013, and 6,400,495 have been sold in 2014. MUCH more consistent demand.

Now let's say that XBO has 3 good months this year, starting from (let's be generous) 5.5M on October 1st. Let's say that they average out to 1M/month globally (obviously most of their sales are from US/UK by a huge margin). What does that give us? 8.5M. Now you have a situation where you're starting 2015 1M+ in the hole away from 10M. PS4 will start at around 18M or so. Now in 2015, with the long-term demand problems we've seen from XBO, do you think PS4 will sell 2M before XBO sells 1.5M?

You'd have to be an insane person to think that XBO will sell anywhere close to fast enough. Need I remind you of 2014 YTD sales for both?

6,400,495 PS4
2,341,188 XBO

That's right, XBO has sold LESS than 37% of PS4's rate for the year so far. Nearly 3 PS4s have sold for every single XBO. 2015 won't change this, in fact, it will probably accelerate.

I'll go further and say : PS4 will hit 50M before XBO hits 20M, and 100M before XBO hits 50 (spoiler : XBO will never get to 50M).

I agree on that ! Especially, the PS4 becoming the de facto standard, and the XOne near irrelevance in Europe. It makes the situation for the XOne far worst than what the data show for the average sales on 2014-2015. I can't think about anything that would make me believe that the XOne can achieve 1:2.

I agree with a lot of those points, but I never underestimate Microsoft's ability.

In fact last time I mentioned that, they soon after they announced the Tomb Raider exclusivity.  Damn I hate being right

Imagine if Microsoft got FFXV as XB1 exclusive, that would piss people off and cause more damage to PS4 than good for XB1.  But if you find that hard to believe just think they paid $2.5 billion for Mojang.  They can definitely write a cheque big enough for Square Enix to go XB1 exclusive.  That would really suck .



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Captain_Tom on 21 September 2014
Turkish said:

PS4 is currently at ~11M while Xbone is at 5.4M. Will either reach their own milestone before the end of the year? It's gonna be close but it can happen, and as to who will reach it first, I really can't predict. It's gonna be so close


Technically it should based on current projections.  But still even I would be amazed if it did...



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binary solo on 21 September 2014
cheryl said:

i have no idea, but im sure ps4 at the end of the years the total sales will be around 13 million.

about microsoft...

once again they will reduce the price of xbox one..

november or december at $349

You really need to get a clue about sales. PS4 will sell about 3 million units in December alone.

I don't think MS will drop the price again this year. They need to at least see if the end of year offerings can get them a decent amount of revenue at the current price. If it doesn;t do the job then $349 will happen at E3 2015. But it won't help much because PS4 will be $349 in September 2015.



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GribbleGrunger on 21 September 2014

I think February will decide it.



 

The PS5 Exists. 


Wonktonodi on 21 September 2014

It's possible. Though if I recall correctly the boost in sales in the US are a little disproportionate to the rest of the world during the holidays, so with the ratio being much closer in the the US the xbox might hit that milestone first contrary to what the LTD pattern would lead us to predict.



Captain_Tom on 21 September 2014
Norris2k said:
Arkaign said:
I think it's quite likely that PS4 beats XBO to the 20M/10M separation.

Why? Because XBO has had a number of smaller bumps that skewed things out of the ordinary.

(1)- HUGE marketing push + Titanfall giveaway to try to win March. Even though it didn't win, it did push what, 500k global extra sales probably because of this?

(2)- Tier2 launch and some extra attempts to juice the numbers (free game weekend, limited Madden bundle). These were extremely temporary measures (as next weeks numbers will show).

(3)- 2014 sales in isolation show that the rate of sales is WAY past 2:1 globally in favor of PS4. This will continue easily throughout 2015, and actually may accelerate as smaller markets begin to push XBO off the shelves. Stores are VERY smart about how to use their limited shelf space, and if something doesn't move, they can and will move quickly to reduce the space for slow sellers, and expand space for faster sellers. Hell, here in Texas earlier tonight I noticed something at Walmart.

Before they had 3 Xbox cases and an Xbox One Kiosk/half case. The three cases were the standard floor to ~9' full height lockcases, and one was dedicated for XBO games, while the other two were 360 stuff, along with a slight overflow of XBO accessories near the bottom. The half case across the aisle had an XBO demo station and under that a lock case where the XBO consoles were kept.

Now : the XBO demo kiosk and half-case is totally gone, and the XBO consoles are stuffed into one of the remaining full height cases, along with all of the XBO software and accessories. Towards the bottom, there are some overflow of 360 software titles. The other Xbox full height case is 100% 360 stuff.

The PS section expanded to take one of the old Xbox cases, and is now about 55/45% split between PS4 and PS3, with a single sad row of Vita (poor Vita). I think I also spotted one or two ancient PSP titles in there.

Now say what you will about Walmart, but they're not the world's largest retailer because they're dumb about how they merchandise things. They have some of the most sophisticated stock management and analysis infrastructure on earth, and the reason they did that is because XBO is failing relative to previous expectations.

Now think about that for a minute. This is the heart of Xbox country previously, and it's solidly a PS4 advantage now. What about Europe, Japan, South America, SE Asia, etc? Do you think little shops with limited space will continue to stock Xbox stuff that sits there for ages until it has to be clearanced? Hell no.

(4)- Xbox One was HUGELY front loaded. There were a core group of Xbox fans that would have bought a box full of cow patties so long as it had the Xbox logo on it. The same is true of a core group of PS and Nintendo fans. We all know who these people are. And that let XBO have honestly a GREAT Nov/Dec 2013. But what's happened since then? I'll tell you what :

To date, more XBOs were sold in 2013 than in 2014. The extreme front-loading of the demand meant that the core fans got theirs, and it's been largely languishing ever since, and outright failing in Europe.

3,066,449 XB1s were sold in 2013, and 2,341,188 have been sold in 2014. See the problem? Compare to :

4,409,596 PS4s were sold in 2013, and 6,400,495 have been sold in 2014. MUCH more consistent demand.

Now let's say that XBO has 3 good months this year, starting from (let's be generous) 5.5M on October 1st. Let's say that they average out to 1M/month globally (obviously most of their sales are from US/UK by a huge margin). What does that give us? 8.5M. Now you have a situation where you're starting 2015 1M+ in the hole away from 10M. PS4 will start at around 18M or so. Now in 2015, with the long-term demand problems we've seen from XBO, do you think PS4 will sell 2M before XBO sells 1.5M?

You'd have to be an insane person to think that XBO will sell anywhere close to fast enough. Need I remind you of 2014 YTD sales for both?

6,400,495 PS4
2,341,188 XBO

That's right, XBO has sold LESS than 37% of PS4's rate for the year so far. Nearly 3 PS4s have sold for every single XBO. 2015 won't change this, in fact, it will probably accelerate.

I'll go further and say : PS4 will hit 50M before XBO hits 20M, and 100M before XBO hits 50 (spoiler : XBO will never get to 50M).

I agree on that ! Especially, the PS4 becoming the de facto standard, and the XOne near irrelevance in Europe. It makes the situation for the XOne far worst than what the data show for the average sales on 2014-2015. I can't think about anything that would make me believe that the XOne can achieve 1:2.

+1 from me too.  Arkaign convinced me that the PS4 will definetely hit 20 before X1 hits 10.  Man this is gonna get ugly. I gauruntee either there won't be another Xbox, or they will release the next one by 2018.



chocoloco on 21 September 2014

The ratio of X1 to PS4 sales does not seem like it will change in favor of the X1. Clearly the US would have to change the sales ratio in favor of the X1 for this sales marks of 10 million to 20 million not to happen. I do not think America's sales alone could do this even if the X1 starts selling a ton better then the PS4 in the USA.

To make it short, yes I think it will happen at the ratio of >2:1.