Will PS4 reach 20M HW sales before Xbone reaches 10M?

[ICStats]

Dr.Henry_Killinger said:

ICStats said:

Dr.Henry_Killinger said:

thats 12.8 year sales PS4, 4.6 year sales XB1

add that to 4.4 PS4 2013, 3.1 XB1 2013

17.2 PS4 vs 7.7 XB1 at the end of this year as a rough minimum estimate.

Meaning XB1 being 2.3 away from 10 mil while PS4 would be 2.8 mill away from 20 mil.

Likely, XB1 will hit 10 mil before PS4 20 million, but another thing to consider is whoever announces it first, not to mention MS is less likely to announce 10 mill if Sony is anywhere near 20 Mil.

Umm, I follow your logic up until you said XB1 will hit 10 mil before PS4 20 million .

Let's say we use June as a baseline month (XB1 pricecut month!):

- PS4 June 756k
- XB1 June 306k

At those rates...

- PS4 will sell 2.8mil in 3.7 months.
- XB1 will sell 2.3mil in 7.5 months.

So PS4 would reach it's milestone in half the time...

I'm completely disregarding anything but YTD sales, because I consider monthly sales dependent on too many variables.

There isn't really any way to predict the weekly rates without wild guessing so, I use the rate of sales of consoles in general in holidays, selling the same amount in holidays as they did the rest of the year. So at minimum their is a 500k difference in favor of the One by the start of 2015, right now neither are trending towards 20/10 mill before January 2015.

Right, you're saying YTD is good enough for estimating end of 2014 sales.

What I'm saying is given your estimate for end of 2014, we can conclude PS4 will hit 20 much sooner than XB1 will hit 10.

PS4 is outselling XB1 by 2.8:1 YTD... so why not complete your logic.

I'd say roughly:

- Wii U @ 10 mil in December 2014
- PS4 @ 20mil in April 2015
- XB1 @ 10mil in August 2015