| binary solo said: But the YTD is suggesting that the PS4 selling trend is >2:1 over Xb one. So for Xb one to have a chance of getting to 10 million before PS4 gets to 20 million some time in 2015 Xb one needs to be more than twice as close to 10 million than PS4 is to 20 million. So if PS4 makes it to 17.2 million by 1 Jan 2015, needing 2.8 million more to get to 20 million, then Xb one needs to be over 8.6 million by 1 jan 2015 meaning it needs to sell less than 1.4 to get to 10 million. By my calculations Xb one should get to ~8 million by 1 Jan 2015, and I don't think PS4 will get to over 17 million I think it is likely that PS4 will be 3.5 million short of 20 million by 1 Jan 2015, and Xb one will be <2 million short. That makes it very close but still maybe still slightly in favour of PS4. If Xb one gets to over 8.25 million by 1 Jan 2015 I think it will make 10 million before PS4 makes 20 million. So I am kind of arguing against my previous post, now. I probably wasn't really thinking clearly about what the holidays are likely to do. I think Xb one will do relatively better in the holidays than through the year. So I can definitely see Xb one selling 3 million 1 jan 2015, which puts it well beyond 8 million LTD. PS4 should sell at least 5-6 million so it's lead will substantially increase, but it seems where PS4 will actually ceate that >2:1 LTD gap is during the quieter 9 months of the year. but that won't happen before Xb one reaches 10 million. |
| ICStats said: Right, you're saying YTD is good enough for estimating end of 2014 sales. What I'm saying is given your estimate for end of 2014, we can conclude PS4 will hit 20 much sooner than XB1 will hit 10. PS4 is outselling XB1 by 2.8:1 YTD... so why not complete your logic. I'd say roughly: - Wii U @ 10 mil in December 2014 |
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