Will PS4 reach 20M HW sales before Xbone reaches 10M?

[Zanten]

Anyway, on the original topic, I'm of mixed opinion about whether it'll happen. On the one hand, the PS4's shattered every sales expectation I had about it, and the Xbox One's kinda disappointed every time I expected a significant upswing. But there are a couple of things that I'd like to point out that are keeping me from going along with it.

First, the holidays are likely to be a bit of a crazy time for all of the console sellers. It's why I kind of roll my eyes when I hear the prediction that 'Oooo, this holiday, Xbox One will close the U.S. gap!' Depending on demand, it's actually pretty likely that, in that market at least, both sides will sell pretty evenly, as we'll be having a fair number of people just picking up a console for their young 'un, without much, if any research or preparation beforehand. (Heck, the mentality might even be 'Well, my kid owns an Xbox, might as well get 'im the new one!') Granted, even as I say this, I admit this might just be something else the Xbox One ends up disappointing me in. xP

Now, Europe and Asia will be another story- I don't know much of the buying patterns outside North America, so can't say for sure how much of a boost those markets get during the holiday- and so the PS4 could end up seriously cleaning house globally, especially if they don't have the supply issues there that they did last holiday. Depending on how the U.S. sales go, however, the global gap might not be 2:1 during the holidays.

Second, there is the 'Microsoft's An Eccentric Billionaire' angle, i.e. the fact that there still is a chance Microsoft will radically change the 'rules of engagement' again. While I think that buying Mojang is a bad example- because, as I mentioned in my earlier post, they seem to be looking more at mobile than Xbox with that move- there is the admittedly crazy bundling and deals they've been doing. Seriously, two brand new games AND a fifty dollar gift card for buying the console? o.O That crazy as hell Germany bundle that gave Halo: MCC AND Destiny at only a slight surcharge? Heck, even the free game U.S. thing, which was flat out; 'Hey, you know that really anticipated multiplat Sony has been advertising and has exclusive content that you might be getting a PS4 for? Buy us. We will GIVE YOU THE GAME FOR NO EXTRA MONIES.' That was a bold move. o.o God only knows what they have planned for Black Friday.

Now, don't get me wrong, the money-flinging certainly hasn't helped Microsoft narrow the gap, but it may have helped slow the rate it spreads a bit. If this holiday, and in early 2015, Microsoft starts firing on all cylinders and tries undercutting their competition to the point of obsession, they might be able to dig their heels in enough to hit the 10 million before the PS4 hits 20. Doubt they'll be able to STOP the gap from widening, they might just be able to slow how much it widens. xD