i think a 20$-30$ price cut might do it some good, it gets out of the 300$ zone and will looks more appealing. 300$ looks a bit much but 280$ 270$ looks psychologically more nice xD

What do you base this assumption on? According to

http://www.vgchartz.com/game/71408/mario-kart-8/Global/

the sales decline very slowly. Compare that with Watchdogs:

http://www.vgchartz.com/game/71547/watch-dogs/Global/

It's pretty obvious MK8 has good legs (momentum).

Quick maths (real cigarette packet stuff):

Currently at 6.9 mil
Assuming baseline stays at 60k, between 2/8 and 1/11 there's 12 weeks, therefore 720,000 sales
So going into Holiday period sales will look around 7.62 mil

Can Nintendo sell 2.38 mil Wii Us over Christmas?

What about with bumps from Smash, Hyrule Warriors, Bayonetta, etc?

I think 10million by the end of 2014 should be a fairly comfortable goal. It's unlikely that it'll smash past it to 11, but I think end of year sales will probably be sitting around the 10.2 mark

What about with amiibos?

9.2 million for wii u

I'd say it's a safe bet that it can hit 10 mil by the end of 2014, and practically a certainty to hit that by the end of the fiscal year. If the amiibo toys end up doing their job correctly, 11-11.5 million by the end of the fiscal year wouldn't be unthinkable.

What do I have? How about the fact that the Wii U sold 3x as well in Q1 this year compared with Q1 last year? How about the fact that, in July, the Wii U sold more than twice as well as it did last year? How about the fact that, even if the Wii U were to sell exactly as badly for the rest of the financial year as it did last financial year, it would beat the 3.6 million mark?

How about the history of videogame consoles selling better in their third financial year than their second (with the only recent exceptions being PSP and PS Vita)?

Then there's the fact that the Wii U has held its 60k per week sales while the Xbox One, which got a price cut, has seen a drop in weekly sales every week since the price cut (currently around 50k), despite Xbox One getting new releases as Wii U getting none, suggesting that the Wii U sales numbers are the new baseline for the system.

You don't seem to have a particularly firm grasp on logic, if you think logic means "look at it selling poorly in the past. Therefore, it will sell poorly in the future".

You claim that 60k a week is not good... if the Wii U were to sell 60k per week for one year, it would sell over 3.1 million units. That's without any week seeing higher sales than that. Now consider that, in December 2013 alone, the Wii U sold over 1.1 million units, rather than the 240-300k you'd expect based on 60k per week. Add just that extra 800k, and you're already at 3.9 million, which is more than Nintendo's prediction. Do you honestly expect that the Wii U will sell worse this holiday, with Smash Bros, than it did last year, by so much that it would see worse sales in December than it saw in June?

In short, you are being ridiculous, by asserting that I have no facts to back up my claim before I've even been asked to provide facts, and then putting forward "facts" of your own that are completely irrelevant and asserting that logic is on your side when the only logic you provide is "it didn't do it last year".

By the way, Iwata himself said that it was a lowball - a number they were confident they could reach, because they'd been missing their targets so often. Even before the release of Mario Kart 8, they were hopeful of selling well beyond that number. Notice how many times he says "conservative estimates".

And given that the actual meaning of "lowball" isn't "predict far less than what will happen", but "predict the lower-end of what is expected", and most people, irrespective of their opinion of Nintendo, considered their prediction to be very achievable, I'd say that you're wrong on that point, too. This is especially true when you consider basic logic and the simplest of arithmetic - 60 x 52 = 3120.

EDIT: As somebody is probably going to either wilfully or mistakenly misinterpret my reference to Xbox One sales, I just thought I'd note that I only brought it up in order to demonstrate that it is reasonable to call the Wii U's current sales pattern "stable" and "baseline", by using another system, that has had more activity in terms of releases, etc, as reference. I am not in any way trying to make an actual comparison between the two systems in terms of potential sales, long-term sales, or value.

1) Went up 600% in UK or something MK week didn't it? All utterly meaningless statistics when you're dealing with incredibly low numbers, and that IS what we're dealing with. It's at 60k a week, double last year, but still dire numbers.

2) seems you can't count. Nintendo shipped 2.82m last FY, and an extra 350k this Q yoy. So if it was flat it would ship 3.17m not 3.6m.

3) I'm not and havn't debated WiiU can't sell better than its second year? I agree with their estimates which is higher than last year. So pointless outtake there.

4) If the baseline is 60k that's poor, I will wait for more solid sale figures over the coming months how, as Bayo and Hyrule fail to do anything outside of Japan (which will be short lived anyway).

5) XB1 is getting pretty much naff all right now, nobody should be worried about its bad sales until September onwards, if it doesn't rectify ove the holidays then XB1 is truly fucked forever. Shouldn't take more than 1 crappy holiday to see a console is fucked. Which I would definitely do in the case of XB1.

6) I have never said Nintendo can't achieve their target, I have said they have cried wolf far too often (6 years in a row filled with missed expectations) so no, I won't blindly believe them when they say they're being conservative until I see it with my own eyes.

Lastly, why are you assuming a solid 60k baseline from now until the holiday?

It's definitely possible. It will definitely sell over 9 million.

It's been selling about 60k weekly since Week Ending June 21st, and there isn't anything to suggest it will change.

if wii u sells 100,000 a week from now on it will sell about 2 million more, we all know that aint happening before smash, so no