By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales - Will Wii U hit 10 million by the end of the year?

 

Will Wii U hit 10 million by the end of 2014?

Yes 504 59.64%
 
No 339 40.12%
 
Total:843
tbone51 on 06 August 2014
Nexus7 said:

1. Hyrule Warriors will not even sell a million units worldwide. The game isn't a true Zelda game and that genre has never been a big seller.

2. Smash Bros. U will sell about half as well as Mario Kart 8 did. Plus, the 3DS version will no doubt cannibalize a decent amount of the Wii U sales.

3. Mario Kart 8's momentum is dying down. The vast majority who wanted that game already own it. It basically sold well to the current install base.

4. Bayonetta 2 won't be a big seller. A small niche group will buy that game. Won't help Wii U sales one bit.

5. IMHO, the console is still $50-100 too expensive. It needs a price drop this year.

1. How about we wait and see, its not like its impossible for 1mil sales, besides we dont kno how much it needs to be a profit.

2. No SSBU wont be half of MK8, it'll be alot more. And the 3ds version wont cannibalize the wiiu sales.

3. How can you say that when MK8 is still selling well and even its up Weekly in japan?

4. Your right its small and niche, but if nintendo promotes this well it can actually sell a good amount and move HW (not as much as SSB would obviously, but still). Its got the Bayo1 port going for it. So it'll no doubt be more successful than many thought when Bayo2 was first announced.

5. Yes it can use a price drop, $100 is too much, There is no point in selling an extra 1mil-2mil during holiday if all that money is lost (wiiu will be selling at a major loss at $200)



Around the Network
TechnoHobbit on 06 August 2014

I have a bet depending on it so it better reach 10 million!

Even if it doesn't, it'll be very close (at least for shipments--sales will of course be 200-300k lower). Even if this year just matches last year the shipments will be at 8.93 million and this year is looking to beat last year by quite a bit.



Bets:

1. If the Wii U sells closer to 10 million LTD by 1/3/2015 I win. If it sells closer to 9.5 million LTD by 1/3/2015 OfficerRaichu15 wins (winner gets 2 weeks of avatar control)--Lost.

zorg1000 on 06 August 2014
Seece said:
Aielyn said:
Seece said:

No, not even Nintendo expect 10m (shipped) end of the year (and they have over estimated home console sales for about 6 years running)

Nintendo have been over-estimating... which is why they've underestimated this one. Pretty much everybody who saw Nintendo's forecast for 2014/2015 thought the same thing - they're lowballing their prediction because having to repeatedly go "We weren't able to reach our forecast" becomes tiresome and problematic. Forecasting 3 million and selling 5 million looks better than forecasting 10 million and selling 5 million.

They're low balling? IMO I've only heard that from Nintendo fans, who never at any stage thought WiiU sales would be like this or get lower than they have. I heard it all last year (WiiU will do 8m end of the year) and everyone was wrong.

All I'm saying is history and logic is on my side here.

History - Nintendo have missed their forecast for 6 years running.
Logic - WiiU has done very poor numbers since its inception and is still doing poor numbers. 60k a week is not good.

What do you have? Just your opinion 3.6m is low even though it's several hundred k higher than any year WiiU has been out yet?


Nintendo themselves said it was a conservative estimate, meaning they think it will do better but want to play it safe.

Its far from gauranteed but I still believe its possible, 9 million minimum by the end of the year.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Nexus7 on 06 August 2014
tbone51 said:

1. How about we wait and see, its not like its impossible for 1mil sales, besides we dont kno how much it needs to be a profit.

2. No SSBU wont be half of MK8, it'll be alot more. And the 3ds version wont cannibalize the wiiu sales. 

3. How can you say that when MK8 is still selling well and even its up Weekly in japan?

4. Your right its small and niche, but if nintendo promotes this well it can actually sell a good amount and move HW (not as much as SSB would obviously, but still). Its got the Bayo1 port going for it. So it'll no doubt be more successful than many thought when Bayo2 was first announced.

5. Yes it can use a price drop, $100 is too much, There is no point in selling an extra 1mil-2mil during holiday if all that money is lost (wiiu will be selling at a major loss at $200)


1. 500K sounds reasonable to me, not 1 million. Dynasty Warriors 8 only sold about 800K units on the PS3 and 360 combined. That is with an install base of 160 million consoles total.  Just because Zelda is in it doesn't mean it will sell well. Now that I think about it my sales prediction is a bit too generous. 1 million definitely isn't going to happen buddy. 

2. SSB is not anywhere near as popular as Mario Kart. Just look at sales for the original Wii games. Mario Kart Wii sold like 3x more units than Smash Bros. Do you think people who just have a 3DS will wait for the Wii U version of Smash Bros? I'm betting the majority will be satisfied with the 3DS version and all the hardcore players will choose the Wii U version. 

3. I didn't say it isn't selling well, but the momentum is dying down. It has definitely helped sales, but when you consider how poorly the Wii U was selling before Mario Kart U was released it isn't really saying much. The game sold incredibly well to the current install base, but it isn't saving the Wii U. 

4. It won't sell as well as Bayo 1 did  because it is only exclusive to one platform and Bayo 1 wasn't really a big hit to begin with. 

5. Well then at least a $50 price cut should happen by the holidays, or bring out $299.99 bundles with Smash. 

Hey, I might be wrong and the Wii U might go off to sell 10+ million units by the end of 2014, but I just personally don't see that happening. A lot of people think Smash Bros. is as big of a franchise as Mario Kart, but it isn't. 



tbone51 on 06 August 2014
Nexus7 said:
tbone51 said:

1. How about we wait and see, its not like its impossible for 1mil sales, besides we dont kno how much it needs to be a profit.

2. No SSBU wont be half of MK8, it'll be alot more. And the 3ds version wont cannibalize the wiiu sales. 

 


1. 500K sounds reasonable to me, not 1 million.

2. SSB is not anywhere near as popular as Mario Kart. Just look at sales for the original Wii games. Mario Kart Wii sold like 3x more units than Smash Bros. Do you think people who just have a 3DS will wait for the Wii U version of Smash Bros? I'm betting the majority will be satisfied with the 3DS version and all the hardcore players will choose the Wii U version. 


Im only going to address the first 2. For HW, we'll see soon so its just a matterof opinion that will be answered shortly! :)

 

Why does many people look at MKWii #s only? Its a game that will be a 1 time thing in those huge sales. It was on a casual system and thats why it sold that high. Look at GCN.  SSB>MK, but lets ignore it?

And as i said 3DS wont cannibalize wiiu sales. If SSB sells over 5mil lifetime, i definitely say 3DS didnt hurt it. I mean i can say MK7 hurt MK8 right? Its the same thing. Also we had a similar thing with NSMB2 and NSMBU. They were released very well and despite 2 completely huge userbase differences,NSMBU is way over half of NSMB2!



Around the Network
Nexus7 on 06 August 2014
tbone51 said:


Im only going to address the first 2. For HW, we'll see soon so its just a matterof opinion that will be answered shortly! :)

 

Why does many people look at MKWii #s only? Its a game that will be a 1 time thing in those huge sales. It was on a casual system and thats why it sold that high. Look at GCN.  SSB>MK, but lets ignore it?

And as i said 3DS wont cannibalize wiiu sales. If SSB sells over 5mil lifetime, i definitely say 3DS didnt hurt it. I mean i can say MK7 hurt MK8 right? Its the same thing. Also we had a similar thing with NSMB2 and NSMBU. They were released very well and despite 2 completely huge userbase differences,NSMBU is way over half of NSMB2


Look at N64 sales. MK64>SSB.   MK64 sold about 2x more units than SSB did on the N64.  

The 3DS version will indeed cannibalize some sales, because those who just own a 3DS have no need to pickup a Wii U just to play Smash Bro. To the degree that it will cannibalize sales is anyone's guess, but it will in fact hurt some of the Wii U's potential sales. This I can guarantee. 

If I'm wrong I'll gladly admit it, but I've yet to be completely wrong with any Wii U predictions I've made so far. 



tbone51 on 06 August 2014
Nexus7 said:
tbone51 said:


Im only going to address the first 2. For HW, we'll see soon so its just a matterof opinion that will be answered shortly! :)

 

Why does many people look at MKWii #s only? Its a game that will be a 1 time thing in those huge sales. It was on a casual system and thats why it sold that high. Look at GCN.  SSB>MK, but lets ignore it?

And as i said 3DS wont cannibalize wiiu sales. If SSB sells over 5mil lifetime, i definitely say 3DS didnt hurt it. I mean i can say MK7 hurt MK8 right? Its the same thing. Also we had a similar thing with NSMB2 and NSMBU. They were released very well and despite 2 completely huge userbase differences,NSMBU is way over half of NSMB2!

Look at N64 sales. MK64>SSB. 

Yeah where SSB released near the end of N64 cycle and was the first in the series. 5.55mil for a new franchise?

Im not saying SSB is a bigger franchise, but they are definitely close. SSB will push more HW than MK8 by a big margin and Its going to be close in sales. MK8 should win by 1-2mil more lifetime, But SSB no doubt will be up in the top 3 most sold WiiU games lifetime



Nexus7 on 06 August 2014

Yeah where SSB released near the end of N64 cycle and was the first in the series. 5.55mil for a new franchise?

Im not saying SSB is a bigger franchise, but they are definitely close. SSB will push more HW than MK8 by a big margin and Its going to be close in sales. MK8 should win by 1-2mil more lifetime, But SSB no doubt will be up in the top 3 most sold WiiU games lifetime

Ok, fair point.  

The Wii version of Smash Bros sold about 12 million units.  That is without a DS version and an install base of 100 million users. 

Smash Bros. U will be lucky to sell half that in total worldwide sales on the Wii U. A console whose lifetime sales likely won't even hit 20 million units. Then you have to account for the fact that a 3DS version will be released months before. I know you think it won't cannibalize Wii U sales and I would have agreed if both versions were  released on the same day. I just think people who only own a 3DS will just pickup the 3DS version and not even bother going for the more expensive Wii U route. 



tbone51 on 06 August 2014
Nexus7 said:

Yeah where SSB released near the end of N64 cycle and was the first in the series. 5.55mil for a new franchise?

Im not saying SSB is a bigger franchise, but they are definitely close. SSB will push more HW than MK8 by a big margin and Its going to be close in sales. MK8 should win by 1-2mil more lifetime, But SSB no doubt will be up in the top 3 most sold WiiU games lifetime

Ok, fair point.  

The Wii version of Smash Bros sold about 12 million units.  That is without a DS version and an install base of 100 million users. 

Smash Bros. U will be lucky to sell half that in total worldwide sales on a console. A console whose lifetime sales likely won't even hit 20 million units. Then you have to account for the fact that a 3DS version will be released months before. I know you think it won't cannibalize Wii U sales and if they were released on the same day I would agree with you, but a lot of people might just opt for the handheld version instead. 


Looking at it overall, I say its possible to do 6mil, but 4-5mil is most realistic. I'll accept 3DS cannibalize WiiU (SSB) if SSB WiiU sells under 3mil lifetime. 

That said i think if released this mid Nov (meaning if it doesn't get delayed), we can see SSB WiiU sell around 2.5mil-3mil and SSB 3DS should do 4mil+



sborwege on 06 August 2014
tbone51 said:
Nexus7 said:

1. Hyrule Warriors will not even sell a million units worldwide. The game isn't a true Zelda game and that genre has never been a big seller.

2. Smash Bros. U will sell about half as well as Mario Kart 8 did. Plus, the 3DS version will no doubt cannibalize a decent amount of the Wii U sales.

3. Mario Kart 8's momentum is dying down. The vast majority who wanted that game already own it. It basically sold well to the current install base.

4. Bayonetta 2 won't be a big seller. A small niche group will buy that game. Won't help Wii U sales one bit.

5. IMHO, the console is still $50-100 too expensive. It needs a price drop this year.

1. How about we wait and see, its not like its impossible for 1mil sales, besides we dont kno how much it needs to be a profit.

2. No SSBU wont be half of MK8, it'll be alot more. And the 3ds version wont cannibalize the wiiu sales.

3. How can you say that when MK8 is still selling well and even its up Weekly in japan?

4. Your right its small and niche, but if nintendo promotes this well it can actually sell a good amount and move HW (not as much as SSB would obviously, but still). Its got the Bayo1 port going for it. So it'll no doubt be more successful than many thought when Bayo2 was first announced.

5. Yes it can use a price drop, $100 is too much, There is no point in selling an extra 1mil-2mil during holiday if all that money is lost (wiiu will be selling at a major loss at $200)

5.  I think the Wii U is a good value at the price for the quality of games availible.  However; If Xbox is going be availible for $399 with Madden/ or $60 gift card then the Wii U needs to lower cost to compete.  Some good bundles like HW and Bayo for $299, and with either of those they should do the mario kart type promotion again.  Not asking for handouts, they just need to convince others that the price is comparible.