Will Wii U hit 10 million by the end of the year?

[tbone51]

Nexus7 said:

Yeah where SSB released near the end of N64 cycle and was the first in the series. 5.55mil for a new franchise?

Im not saying SSB is a bigger franchise, but they are definitely close. SSB will push more HW than MK8 by a big margin and Its going to be close in sales. MK8 should win by 1-2mil more lifetime, But SSB no doubt will be up in the top 3 most sold WiiU games lifetime

Ok, fair point.  

The Wii version of Smash Bros sold about 12 million units.  That is without a DS version and an install base of 100 million users. 

Smash Bros. U will be lucky to sell half that in total worldwide sales on a console. A console whose lifetime sales likely won't even hit 20 million units. Then you have to account for the fact that a 3DS version will be released months before. I know you think it won't cannibalize Wii U sales and if they were released on the same day I would agree with you, but a lot of people might just opt for the handheld version instead. 

Looking at it overall, I say its possible to do 6mil, but 4-5mil is most realistic. I'll accept 3DS cannibalize WiiU (SSB) if SSB WiiU sells under 3mil lifetime. 

That said i think if released this mid Nov (meaning if it doesn't get delayed), we can see SSB WiiU sell around 2.5mil-3mil and SSB 3DS should do 4mil+