If that were the case, then the WiiU should have done way better last xmas. As far as kids go, parents buy what everyone is getting. In most cases its usually a 3ds for thier kids. When it comes to consoles, every kids older brother is probably out to get a PS4. The Ps4 is what kids talk about in schools... all that stuff filters through.  That 10yr old is going to be screaming that he wants a PS4.

This is what momentum does.

The more people that has a console, the more people that talks about it, and the more chances of you walking into someones house and seeing it. Which all points to more sales of that console.

Yes, but let's make a full prediction.

It's currently at 6.77m. it will be at 6.9m on the week ending august 10th. then HW releases on japan and it will be 7 million. the following 4 weeks will put it at 7.3 and 7.4m. then bayonetta 2 releases in japan and it goes to 7.4 or 7.5m. one week later it's fatal frame for japan + HW on rest of the world and it will go up to 7.6 or 7.7m, with the week ending october 3rd putting it at 7.7-7.8m.

the follwing 4 weeks will include the late september effect + bayonetta 2 release on rest of the world + other minor details and should put wii u at 8.3-8.4m by the end of october. then we have another 4 weeks that include black friday, smash and a few other releases and wii u will cross the 10m mark by the end of november. December will have another 3m+ or so sales, meaning Wii U will end 2014 with 13-14m units sold.

That's the most baseless thing you ever said and the best part is that you keep repeating it ^^

Anyone can understand that 3.6m forecast is intentionally low and easy to surpass. yet you keep saying it as if it was an absolute thing (when it's the very opposite). Well, it matters not. You will feel the bitter taste of swallowing those empty words.

arent nintendo themselves predicting something like 9.6 million shipped by the end of fiscal year (March-ish)?

is so, i cant believe people are delusional enough to think it will sell more than 10 million by the end of this calendar year. let alone ship.

it amazes me that people still think the wiiu will sell more than 25 million, and more outragously 40+ million. it will probably finish at 17-18 million max

Well, it is possible, but I don't think it is very probable. Let's assume the new baseline of 50K (it's below 60K already) is a thing.

Currently WiiU is at 6.8M in VGC, latest week is ending 26th July. So 14 more weeks until end of October. That's 14*50K=700K. That puts WiiU LTD at 7.5M. November are four weeks and I assume they are doubled because of holidays starting: 4*100K=400K. Makes 7.9M at the end of November. December with tripled sales and four weeks: 4*150K=600K. That puts WiiU at 8.5M at the end of the year. Let's say it's the conservative prediction.

We can assume games like Hyrule Warrior, Bayonetta, Toad and so on provide smaller boosts and keep the baseline. Smash might be of bigger impact, lets say all adds up to 500K. That makes a optimistic prediction putting WiiU at 9M.

If we assume the average baseline tends to be at 60K not 50K, that adds 14*10K+4*20K+4*30K=340K. Let's be generous and making it 500K. That makes an very optimistic prediction putting WiiU at 9.5M.

But there is also another possibility. Some people suggesting the baseline above 50K is because of Mrio Kart free game promotion. That ended end of July. So beginning with August the sales should drop back to lower levels. Let's assume in this pessimistic scenario the baseline is at 40K in average. 14*40K+4*80K+4*120K=1.36M. Let's say 1.4M. That puts the WiiU at 8.2M at the end of the year.

So I say I expect between 8.2M and 9.5M. But still hope for more.

VG chartz tracking of the Wii U seems about spot on, there is now way there would be more than 150-200k Wii U sitting on shelves, retailers would only order the bare minimum. Therefore the sell through would not be much lower than the shipped numbers.

Something that I forgot to mentioned before, but there is also that market study from France, that popped up sometime before Mario Kart 8, the study said there were around 10 million gamers interested in Mario Kart 8,if that is still the case or a very similiar number even if it is only a 1/8 of that number, we can expect for the majority of those sales to occur during the Holidays, specially with the presence of a diverse library with, Hyrule Warriors, Bayonetta 2, SSBU, and Watch Dogs to a certain extend, the Wii U can't be understimated at the moment, even if a small fraction of those people buy( a 8-10%?) a Wii U during the Holidays, it will be a very big number, which would make it quite hard for the Wii U not be carried to 10 millions, along the sales of the other regions, plus the boost of past games, in the months upcoming to the Holidays.

And wasn't the Wii U undertracked by like 60k in Japan, by some numbers that popped up sometime ago? Were those left floating in the air, for any possible overtrackment?

1. Hyrule Warriors will not even sell a million units worldwide. The game isn't a true Zelda game and that genre has never been a big seller.

2. Smash Bros. U will sell about half as well as Mario Kart 8 did. Plus, the 3DS version will no doubt cannibalize a decent amount of the Wii U sales.

3. Mario Kart 8's momentum is dying down. The vast majority who wanted that game already own it. It basically sold well to the current install base.

4. Bayonetta 2 won't be a big seller. A small niche group will buy that game. Won't help Wii U sales one bit.

5. IMHO, the console is still $50-100 too expensive. It needs a price drop this year.

They're low balling? IMO I've only heard that from Nintendo fans, who never at any stage thought WiiU sales would be like this or get lower than they have. I heard it all last year (WiiU will do 8m end of the year) and everyone was wrong.

All I'm saying is history and logic is on my side here.

History - Nintendo have missed their forecast for 6 years running.
Logic - WiiU has done very poor numbers since its inception and is still doing poor numbers. 60k a week is not good.

What do you have? Just your opinion 3.6m is low even though it's several hundred k higher than any year WiiU has been out yet?

Even permabanned this user just doesn't stop giving, the Nintendo oracle that is always wrong has spoken, we now know what is definitely not going to happen.