Will Wii U hit 10 million by the end of the year?

[Mnementh]

Well, it is possible, but I don't think it is very probable. Let's assume the new baseline of 50K (it's below 60K already) is a thing.

Currently WiiU is at 6.8M in VGC, latest week is ending 26th July. So 14 more weeks until end of October. That's 14*50K=700K. That puts WiiU LTD at 7.5M. November are four weeks and I assume they are doubled because of holidays starting: 4*100K=400K. Makes 7.9M at the end of November. December with tripled sales and four weeks: 4*150K=600K. That puts WiiU at 8.5M at the end of the year. Let's say it's the conservative prediction.

We can assume games like Hyrule Warrior, Bayonetta, Toad and so on provide smaller boosts and keep the baseline. Smash might be of bigger impact, lets say all adds up to 500K. That makes a optimistic prediction putting WiiU at 9M.

If we assume the average baseline tends to be at 60K not 50K, that adds 14*10K+4*20K+4*30K=340K. Let's be generous and making it 500K. That makes an very optimistic prediction putting WiiU at 9.5M.

But there is also another possibility. Some people suggesting the baseline above 50K is because of Mrio Kart free game promotion. That ended end of July. So beginning with August the sales should drop back to lower levels. Let's assume in this pessimistic scenario the baseline is at 40K in average. 14*40K+4*80K+4*120K=1.36M. Let's say 1.4M. That puts the WiiU at 8.2M at the end of the year.

So I say I expect between 8.2M and 9.5M. But still hope for more.