NPD next week could change this, not saying it necessarily will but vgchartz is showing a pretty damn low shipped vs sold difference for a console that is supposedly still selling 60k a week (less than 130k at the end of June)

It's certainly possible, although I'm expecting something right below 10 million.
Off topic: This reminds me of someone claiming The PS4 would only have sold 12 million by the end of the year. Made me lol.

at its current pace of just over 60k a week no but with the bump from SSB and the holiday sure i believe it could be possible, 

Er? yes there is, a pretty long quiet period filled with niche games. That isa pretty big reason for change ... 0_o

History: cant argue with that. But keep in mind they have said that they are aware of that and and are giving low numbers this time. History is also not a window to the future, things change all the time and people learn from their mistakes so nintendo can change things around.

Logic: You really cant just look at the numbers but as to the reason for the numbers. Like it was said before, in the past they had very few games, no advertisement, high price(still high), ps4/x1 launch hype. Most of thouse things are gone. You cant really expect things will be exactly the same wile everything else is changing around it.

No, it will be close though.

I can easily see them reach 10m the way things are now. The have to many exclusives coming so they will have a very nice Holiday sale. I still think the console needs a pricecut urgently at least $30-$50 this year. They probably wont and will just do some agresive bundles, like the mk8 bundle and early next year do the pricecut. If they do the $50 pricecut on time they can pass 11m easy.

1. A single data point is irrelevant. Nine data points in a row is a trend.

2. Who said anything about "shipped"? We don't have access to detailed "Shipped" numbers enough to discuss them properly. Shipped numbers reflect differences between demand and existing-supply. If there are a heap of Wii Us on shelves, the shipped numbers won't go up even if the system starts selling, until those stocked systems are mostly sold. I'm working off sales numbers, using the most accurate numbers we have access to (which isn't to say that they're particularly accurate).

3. And yet you use the "logic" of looking at the previous year to make your argument.

4. I always find it funny when people like you try to assert that titles will sell poorly with no justification. Hyrule Warriors is a crossover between Dynasty Warriors and Legend of Zelda. Dynasty Warriors is mostly popular in Japan, yes. But Zelda is mostly popular in the west. On the sheer basis of fanservice, it's going to do moderately well. How well is something we're going to have to wait and see. And Bayonetta 2, as I've discussed in another thread, is showing good signs of strong performance. But then, that's kind of irrelevant to the discussion, anyway.

The fact is, 60k baseline is a lot stronger than 30k baseline. And if last year's baseline was 30k and it sold about 2.8 million, how many would you estimate it to sell at a 60k baseline? Oh, right - your logic is based on "it sold badly last year, and 60k isn't huge, so it's not going to sell much more than 3.6 million this year". Never mind that logic requires a lot more than a superficial pair of points without even consideration of interactions between the two points.

5. Did you bother to read my edit, because it seems that the "somebody" ended up being you. I was not commenting on Xbox One sales numbers themselves, but on how this period of time affected sales relative to the baseline. With some releases (sure, nothing huge, but a few games that did manage to chart), it's on a downward trend, suggesting that system sales should be on a decline trajectory at this time of year. This can be reconfirmed by looking at PS4 sales in July, or PS3 sales, or Xbox 360 sales, or PSP sales (the only other systems not to see such a trend were 3DS and Vita, which both saw major releases). All of them saw downwards trajectories throughout July. And yet, Wii U stayed steady. This isn't a comment on how well or poorly the other systems are doing. It's a comment on the fact that Wii U is already at its baseline.

6. First of all, don't butcher proverbial statements. Nintendo didn't "cry wolf". They were overly optimistic with previous expectations. Nobody thinks Nintendo is being optimistic with their 3.6 million number. Not even you, as much as you're loathe to admit it. Nintendo's statement that they're being conservative is backed up by logic and common sense. Your statement that their history of "crying wolf" suggests they're still doing it is based on nothing but anti-Nintendo attitudes. There is no evidence whatsoever that Wii U sales won't easily beat their expected number.

And I'm assuming a solid 60k baseline to the holidays because it's managed to sustain a 60k sales pace for about 7 weeks, now, in a time when other systems saw declines, the Wii U saw no notable game releases (whereas there were a few notable - not major, but notable - releases on other systems), and systems typically do better each month after July than they do during July (and where they don't, it's usually because of a significant release in July). So there's no reason whatsoever to think that there'll be a significant drop in baseline from here until the end of the year, given that it's been steady for two months, the next batch of games start releasing in August/September (depending on region), and Nintendo is likely to start its holiday advertising.

In other words, actual historical information about the gaming industry, along with real logic, informs my assumption that Wii U will hold at 60k baseline.

Well, all we can do at this point is hope that the numbers are good, so, let's do that!

As opposed to the period between June 15th and August 2nd, when the Wii U was getting a lot of non-niche games? Your argument is like an imitation of the saying about insanity ("doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results"). Why would there be a change in sales in the negative direction when there's no change in terms of release of titles?

Also, it's kind of stupid to refer to Bayonetta and Hyrule Warriors as "niche", considering that all of the franchises involved often sell over 1 million.