| Seece said: 1) Went up 600% in UK or something MK week didn't it? All utterly meaningless statistics when you're dealing with incredibly low numbers, and that IS what we're dealing with. It's at 60k a week, double last year, but still dire numbers. 2) seems you can't count. Nintendo shipped 2.82m last FY, and an extra 350k this Q yoy. So if it was flat it would ship 3.17m not 3.6m. 3) I'm not and havn't debated WiiU can't sell better than its second year? I agree with their estimates which is higher than last year. So pointless outtake there. 4) If the baseline is 60k that's poor, I will wait for more solid sale figures over the coming months how, as Bayo and Hyrule fail to do anything outside of Japan (which will be short lived anyway). 5) XB1 is getting pretty much naff all right now, nobody should be worried about its bad sales until September onwards, if it doesn't rectify ove the holidays then XB1 is truly fucked forever. Shouldn't take more than 1 crappy holiday to see a console is fucked. Which I would definitely do in the case of XB1. 6) I have never said Nintendo can't achieve their target, I have said they have cried wolf far too often (6 years in a row filled with missed expectations) so no, I won't blindly believe them when they say they're being conservative until I see it with my own eyes. Lastly, why are you assuming a solid 60k baseline from now until the holiday? |
1. A single data point is irrelevant. Nine data points in a row is a trend.
2. Who said anything about "shipped"? We don't have access to detailed "Shipped" numbers enough to discuss them properly. Shipped numbers reflect differences between demand and existing-supply. If there are a heap of Wii Us on shelves, the shipped numbers won't go up even if the system starts selling, until those stocked systems are mostly sold. I'm working off sales numbers, using the most accurate numbers we have access to (which isn't to say that they're particularly accurate).
3. And yet you use the "logic" of looking at the previous year to make your argument.
4. I always find it funny when people like you try to assert that titles will sell poorly with no justification. Hyrule Warriors is a crossover between Dynasty Warriors and Legend of Zelda. Dynasty Warriors is mostly popular in Japan, yes. But Zelda is mostly popular in the west. On the sheer basis of fanservice, it's going to do moderately well. How well is something we're going to have to wait and see. And Bayonetta 2, as I've discussed in another thread, is showing good signs of strong performance. But then, that's kind of irrelevant to the discussion, anyway.
The fact is, 60k baseline is a lot stronger than 30k baseline. And if last year's baseline was 30k and it sold about 2.8 million, how many would you estimate it to sell at a 60k baseline? Oh, right - your logic is based on "it sold badly last year, and 60k isn't huge, so it's not going to sell much more than 3.6 million this year". Never mind that logic requires a lot more than a superficial pair of points without even consideration of interactions between the two points.
5. Did you bother to read my edit, because it seems that the "somebody" ended up being you. I was not commenting on Xbox One sales numbers themselves, but on how this period of time affected sales relative to the baseline. With some releases (sure, nothing huge, but a few games that did manage to chart), it's on a downward trend, suggesting that system sales should be on a decline trajectory at this time of year. This can be reconfirmed by looking at PS4 sales in July, or PS3 sales, or Xbox 360 sales, or PSP sales (the only other systems not to see such a trend were 3DS and Vita, which both saw major releases). All of them saw downwards trajectories throughout July. And yet, Wii U stayed steady. This isn't a comment on how well or poorly the other systems are doing. It's a comment on the fact that Wii U is already at its baseline.
6. First of all, don't butcher proverbial statements. Nintendo didn't "cry wolf". They were overly optimistic with previous expectations. Nobody thinks Nintendo is being optimistic with their 3.6 million number. Not even you, as much as you're loathe to admit it. Nintendo's statement that they're being conservative is backed up by logic and common sense. Your statement that their history of "crying wolf" suggests they're still doing it is based on nothing but anti-Nintendo attitudes. There is no evidence whatsoever that Wii U sales won't easily beat their expected number.
And I'm assuming a solid 60k baseline to the holidays because it's managed to sustain a 60k sales pace for about 7 weeks, now, in a time when other systems saw declines, the Wii U saw no notable game releases (whereas there were a few notable - not major, but notable - releases on other systems), and systems typically do better each month after July than they do during July (and where they don't, it's usually because of a significant release in July). So there's no reason whatsoever to think that there'll be a significant drop in baseline from here until the end of the year, given that it's been steady for two months, the next batch of games start releasing in August/September (depending on region), and Nintendo is likely to start its holiday advertising.
In other words, actual historical information about the gaming industry, along with real logic, informs my assumption that Wii U will hold at 60k baseline.
