Given history and current status of the market.  We have a pretty very good idea.

Yahh PS4 will come to a halt LOL, guess peopel need to really streatch the imiganation far to come up with how X1 will do well.  Maybe a terrorost attack on PS4 factories lol.  

That shows the PS4 killing a $499 Xbox One. The X1 is a stronger competitor at $399.

Lets check back a year from and see if things have changed any. If the situation looks the same, maybe we'll a $299 X1 by 2015 or 2016.

There is demand for X1 and it has great support. Achieving 360 numbers might still be feasible given Wii U is not a major competitor. It just won't happen at $499 or $399.

By the way 360 is at 82.50 not 81

I expect them to have a lot more market share than that. And why would it underperform the 360 when its selling above it LTD and the brand is stronger than it was before?

You have a very good idea? ok, well what if the X1 pulls what the PS3 did last generation? I am sure last gen people were saying the PS3 was a flop and wasn;t going to do well. People said the same about the 3DS and look at thatnow. Yeah, history tells a lot. The point is, you don't know what is going to happen, how the market will act. That's why playing the stock market can be very dangerous.

You see, the problem here is you are looking at this from a console war mentality.  Ps4 success doesnt neccessitate xone failure, or vice versa.  A heavy hitter on ps4 wont suddenly make the xone less popular and cause it to sell less, it will just make the ps4 more popular and cause it to sell more.  So heavy hitters on either system "nullyfying any bump" is silly, especially since I have never seen a heavy hitter on a rival system significantly impact other console sales. 

Like I said, the gen is early.  Microsoft is just recovering the Mattrick years.  There is plenty of time for them to readapt, especially since they have new management. (Both at ceo and xbox division) 

Also, ps4 maintaining a 70/30 sales ratio over the entire gen isnt some kind of given fact.  If the xbox one gets some momentum, it could easily drop to a 60/40 ratio.  Plus, Microsoft should pick up a couple of percentage points anyway when they actually release worldwide...

X1 lacks every single advantage PS3 had last gen that made the recovery possible.  We know how it will react to that.

Lol at this thread. The analysis is based on hmmm gee 30% of last gen sales is something that can be pulled out of someone's ass for a prediction. Where is the methodology and analysis to support the definitive 30% of market share. Was a survey conducted for this? Fanboys really have no clue. I do like these predictions with hard figures though as it makes some posters look really foolish in say 5 years time. Seen this kind of thing many times before and look what happened. No one can be so sure with these things. I don't mind people making an informed prediction allowing for the notion that they could be wrong, but these brave, bold and sure predictions make people look ignorant.

X1 is doing well.

Achieving the success of the 360 would be fantastic. The Xbox 360 is the 5th best selling home console ever and its still relevant.

Nobody expects an attack at PS4 factories. But at the rate things are going its fair to wonder how Sony's financial situation could impact Playstation.

comparison is invalid X1 can't pull a PS3, that requires a large international appeal (PS Brand is bigger, in more countries, every country is basically, PS4 majority right now, with the exception of Japan), US is the only/last hope for X1, if it doesn't win there it won't win anywhere, and it sure as hell has no chance at beating the PS4.