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Forums - Gaming - (almost slightly)BOLD PREDICTION! PS4 will catch WiiU in Japan in 2016

 

PS4 will catch WiiU

NEVARR!! 38 23.90%
 
2014 17 10.69%
 
2015 43 27.04%
 
2016 31 19.50%
 
2017 15 9.43%
 
2018 2 1.26%
 
After the start of next gen 13 8.18%
 
Total:159

Since when did Resident Evil, Metal Gear Solid and Final Fantasy become irrelevant in Japan?



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Currently the PS4, since its release is consistently the best selling home console every week in Japan, with ZERO exclusive AAA games.

When many big Wii U AAA games in Japan are already out.

Also don't forget that PS4 has still PS3 as main competitor in Japan. Playstations have big legs in japan. PS3 still sells better than Wii U almost every week... and Wii is dead...

So my take is PS4 will catch and overtake Wii U at worse in mid-2015. Maybe even before.



If PS4's normal number can stay where it is, and has better holiday seasons, then yes. But that's probably hard to do.



Too late for Ps4. Nintendo will likely release new hardware around that date.



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Only if Sony announces a Knack 2 bundle! FF, Metal Gear and Resident Evil aren't going to be enough this time around!



                
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Aerys said:
Figgycal said:
My prediction was bolder. I think. I did say "I think" and asked people to prove me wrong, but it's the idea that counts. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=181187

I said Wii U would outsell PS4 in Japan. There's no reason to think otherwise at this point in time.



There is a reason to think otherwise : Common sense.

any multiplatform between One ane PS4 will count as exclusive in Japan, PS4 will get a lot of exclusive games, little/average/big system seller on a regular basis after this year.

 

There is no reason to think Wii U could beat that with only 1  or 2 big system seller by year.

well to be fair PS3 still not outsold Wii, and PS3 had all those exclusives. I's not a matter of common sense



tbone51 said:
12 week (Media Creat #s)

WiiU: 791k
PS4: 567k

WiiU with...
16 weeks: 831k
20 weeks: 887k
24 weeks: 923k
28 weeks: 948k
32 weeks: 990k
36 weeks: 1036k
40 weeks: 1068k

For comparing 40 week WiiU vs PS4, it'll need to avg 18k per week from now intill Nov.

The only reason why Wii-U is ahead is because it launched in December, so it got a few weeks of holiday sales. Ps4 launched at the end of February.



AnthonyW86 said:
tbone51 said:
12 week (Media Creat #s)

WiiU: 791k
PS4: 567k

WiiU with...
16 weeks: 831k
20 weeks: 887k
24 weeks: 923k
28 weeks: 948k
32 weeks: 990k
36 weeks: 1036k
40 weeks: 1068k

For comparing 40 week WiiU vs PS4, it'll need to avg 18k per week from now intill Nov.

The only reason why Wii-U is ahead is because it launched in December, so it got a few weeks of holiday sales. Ps4 launched at the end of February.


Best comparison will be after PS4 had about 43-45weeks (then the holiday excuse is out). Still it needs to avg 16k-18k to catch up by that time. Sitting under 10k will take its toll.



tbone51 said:
AnthonyW86 said:
tbone51 said:
12 week (Media Creat #s)

WiiU: 791k
PS4: 567k

WiiU with...
16 weeks: 831k
20 weeks: 887k
24 weeks: 923k
28 weeks: 948k
32 weeks: 990k
36 weeks: 1036k
40 weeks: 1068k

For comparing 40 week WiiU vs PS4, it'll need to avg 18k per week from now intill Nov.

The only reason why Wii-U is ahead is because it launched in December, so it got a few weeks of holiday sales. Ps4 launched at the end of February.


Best comparison will be after PS4 had about 43-45weeks (then the holiday excuse is out). Still it needs to avg 16k-18k to catch up by that time. Sitting under 10k will take its toll.

I think it's going to be close for this year, but in 2015 the PS4 will start picking up steam, while the Wii-U will slow even further. By 2016 Wii-U sales will likely have come to a halt(if it hasn't been replaced by then altogether) will PS4 sales will be peaking.



I'm going to stick by my prediction of Wii U staying ahead. People talk about games putting PS4 sales far ahead of Wii U. But that just reminds me of people saying games would save Wii U (globally). I don't see it myself. Home consoles are a dying market in Japan, the sales level we're seeing is simply a re-rating of the baseline of sales. 10K for a console in a particular week will be a good week,



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