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Currently the PS4, since its release is consistently the best selling home console every week in Japan, with ZERO exclusive AAA games.

When many big Wii U AAA games in Japan are already out.

Also don't forget that PS4 has still PS3 as main competitor in Japan. Playstations have big legs in japan. PS3 still sells better than Wii U almost every week... and Wii is dead...

So my take is PS4 will catch and overtake Wii U at worse in mid-2015. Maybe even before.