By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Gaming Discussion - (almost slightly)BOLD PREDICTION! PS4 will catch WiiU in Japan in 2016

 

PS4 will catch WiiU

NEVARR!! 38 23.90%
 
2014 17 10.69%
 
2015 43 27.04%
 
2016 31 19.50%
 
2017 15 9.43%
 
2018 2 1.26%
 
After the start of next gen 13 8.18%
 
Total:159
Frogger on 20 May 2014
vivster said:
spemanig said:
vivster said:
spemanig said:

You realize that the PS4 is tracking behind the Wii U within the same time frame in sales there, right? The PS4 will never catch the Wii U. None of the PS4 exclusives have the power to boost the PS4 past the Wii U in Japan.

All that matters is that it is currently selling better. And as long as it sells better every week it will catch it eventually.

Also that's why this is totally blod :P


That's not at all what matters. If it continues on the path it's following by tracking behind the Wii U, it can never possibly outsell the Wii U. Thats how sales work.

In order to outsell the Wii U in Japan, it first has to outsell what the Wii U was doing then it was three months old, and it isn't. It's selling less. That means that if it follows this path, by the time it's as old as the Wii U is now, it will be selling less than 7.6K that week, which means that it will have sold less units in the same timespan in Japan than the Wii U, which won't matter to the Wii U because it will be that many month ahead in sales.

It's not bold, it's stupid. The PS4 can outsell the Wii U literally every week, and as long as it tracks behind what the Wii U was doing when it was the PS4's age, it is literally impossible for it to overtake the Wii U in sales.

That's not how I remember my math.

If the PS4 now sells 3k more than WiiU every week the gap will be closed in a mere 400 weeks.

Also: Gap before release of PS4 1,6million. Gap now 1,2 million. Looks to me like it's shrinking. And as long as PS4 sells more than Wii U it will continue to shrink until it caught it.

The only possibility of the PS4 not catching the WiiU will be if it suddenly sells less or the same on a weekly basis.

So I don't really get what your're saying. Maybe you want to elaborate.


That's what I'm saying. It's on track to sell less than the Wii U on a weekly basis because it's falling behind what the Wii U was doing at the same time.



Around the Network
tbone51 on 20 May 2014
vivster said:
spemanig said:
vivster said:
spemanig said:

 

That's not how I remember my math.

If the PS4 now sells 3k more than WiiU every week the gap will be closed in a mere 400 weeks.

Also: Gap before release of PS4 1,6million. Gap now 1,2 million. Looks to me like it's shrinking. And as long as PS4 sells more than Wii U it will continue to shrink until it caught it.

The only possibility of the PS4 not catching the WiiU will be if it suddenly sells less or the same on a weekly basis.

So I don't really get what your're saying. Maybe you want to elaborate.


look at my above post.

Also "mere 400 weeks"? Bro thats almost 8 years!!!!!



tbone51 on 20 May 2014

12 week (Media Creat #s)

WiiU: 791k
PS4: 567k

WiiU with...
16 weeks: 831k
20 weeks: 887k
24 weeks: 923k
28 weeks: 948k
32 weeks: 990k
36 weeks: 1036k
40 weeks: 1068k

For comparing 40 week WiiU vs PS4, it'll need to avg 18k per week from now intill Nov.



TheGoldenBoy on 20 May 2014
spemanig said:
TheGoldenBoy said:
spemanig said:
TheGoldenBoy said:
I could see it happening. Unlikely though unless FFXV and KH3 release before 2016 ends. I have no idea what impact those two games will have.

KH3 definitely won't and I doubt we'll see FFXV before late 2015.

That's exactly why I'm not sure. Square takes a long time to release their games and the longer it takes to release those two games, the more unlikely it becomes the PS4 will ever outsell the Wii U in Japan. Although, Japan is essentially a non-factor when it comes to home consoles.

Even if they did, I don't think it would help. The last big KH and FF games both barely sold 1m in Japan, and the PS4 is tracking way worse than the PS3 was in Japan, so those games will surely sell less there. Super Mario Galaxy sold about the same there, and SM3DW has sold 500K there so far. That's the kind of boost those games will give the PS4, most likely less.

Final Fantasy is a bit of special case though. The last sold poorly because no one really wanted it. A great majority were finished with Lightning and thus never bought the third game. FFXV is supposed to be the Final Fantasy game we've been waiting for a whole gen. I don't anyone can accurately guess what it'll sell. 



vivster on 20 May 2014
spemanig said:


That's what I'm saying. It's on track to sell less than the Wii U on a weekly basis because it's falling behind what the Wii U was doing at the same time.

So that's the point where we differ. I don't think the sales track of the WiiU in Japan is even comparable to that of the PS4. PS4 is obviously not frontloaded since it launched in february and without hot exclusives.



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

Around the Network
vivster on 20 May 2014
tbone51 said:

look at my above post.

Also "mere 400 weeks"? Bro thats almost 8 years!!!!!

That was an example. Obviously I think that there will be peaks of games which will close the gap faster.

I don't really give a shit about the WiiUs sales track because we are in completely different circumstances so I won't ever compare those. And I don't think PS4 will take the same path because it isn't as front loaded.



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

Frogger on 20 May 2014
TheGoldenBoy said:
spemanig said:
TheGoldenBoy said:
spemanig said:
TheGoldenBoy said:
I could see it happening. Unlikely though unless FFXV and KH3 release before 2016 ends. I have no idea what impact those two games will have.

KH3 definitely won't and I doubt we'll see FFXV before late 2015.

That's exactly why I'm not sure. Square takes a long time to release their games and the longer it takes to release those two games, the more unlikely it becomes the PS4 will ever outsell the Wii U in Japan. Although, Japan is essentially a non-factor when it comes to home consoles.

Even if they did, I don't think it would help. The last big KH and FF games both barely sold 1m in Japan, and the PS4 is tracking way worse than the PS3 was in Japan, so those games will surely sell less there. Super Mario Galaxy sold about the same there, and SM3DW has sold 500K there so far. That's the kind of boost those games will give the PS4, most likely less.

Final Fantasy is a bit of special case though. The last sold poorly because no one really wanted it. A great majority were finished with Lightning and thus never bought the third game. FFXV is supposed to be the Final Fantasy game we've been waiting for a whole gen. I don't anyone can accurately guess what it'll sell. 


That's bullshit. No one knew it was "bad" until after they bought it. 13 sold less because there were less people to buy it. 70 million less. The PS4 in Japan will have even less. 13 was supposed to be the "game we've been waiting for" too. No one can accurately guess how much it will sell world wide, but in Japan? That's easy. Less. It will sell less.



Frogger on 20 May 2014
vivster said:
spemanig said:


That's what I'm saying. It's on track to sell less than the Wii U on a weekly basis because it's falling behind what the Wii U was doing at the same time.

So that's the point where we differ. I don't think the sales track of the WiiU in Japan is even comparable to that of the PS4. PS4 is obviously not frontloaded since it launched in february and without hot exclusives.


The PS4 sold more it's first week.



vivster on 20 May 2014
spemanig said:
vivster said:
spemanig said:


That's what I'm saying. It's on track to sell less than the Wii U on a weekly basis because it's falling behind what the Wii U was doing at the same time.

So that's the point where we differ. I don't think the sales track of the WiiU in Japan is even comparable to that of the PS4. PS4 is obviously not frontloaded since it launched in february and without hot exclusives.


The PS4 sold more it's first week.

Which is another point why it will eventually catch the WiiU. It sold more even though it wasn't even in the holidays.

You're all talking about comparisons but so far we haven't even seen a PS4 holiday. The WiiU had 2 so naturally it's ahead.



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

vivster on 20 May 2014

Another point is that At the time of release of the WiiU the Wii was practically dead.
PS3 is still heavily supported which makes the people less ready to switch. So it will take a lot longer for the PS4 to get these people than it took for the WiiU to get the Wii audience.

Yep. Absolutely not comparable.



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.