I can't see PS4 surpassing other lead consoles cause I'm firmly in the stance that there will be less and less games for it. HD development in the 7th gen saw all of the major Japanese firms development slow to a crawl. Some such as Atlus are just now about to release PS3 tittles.With the increase in processing power I can't help but see it exacerbate the situation.

predicting under 20m consoles sold in Japan this gen.

Not even the glorious PS4 is going to save console gaming in Japan!

The Wii has stopped selling because Nintendo discontinued production of them so they are pretty much gone. The only ones left are from US. I think this is smart of Nintendo because they don't want Wii sales to take away from their WiiU sales which need all the help they can get. I thought the PS3 would canabalize sales of the PS4 more than they have with big IPs being on both. Time will tell I guess as inital demand is finnaly met.

On a side note I hope the M$ can finnaly find some ground in Japan. All going to rely on their JPN titles they produce I guess. This holiday will be interesting between the Big 3 with all being out in Japan by September and the games that will be out.

This has been very informative

Will be beaten for sure this gen though, I think we could see as little as 16-18 million consoles sold in total.

I don't think PS4 being easier to develop for is gonna help. We have already seen plenty of delays for many titles irrespective of how easy it is to develop for.  Watch Dogs, Drive Club, Infamous,  in particular Deep Down was delayed just to make it look more like a PS4 game. If a larger Japanese publisher like Capcom doesn't have the resources to take advantage of that processing power in a timely manner(or even Sony 1st party who was involved in making the hardware) I have even less faith in the smaller Japanese publishers to be able to do so quickly and easily.  I see PS4 getting more exclusives than PS3 but possibly even less titles overall games than PS3 in Japan.   

Like it or not Every generation has seen increased costs and increased time spent per title.   PS4 being "easier" to develop for wont buck that trend. It's hardware will exacerbate it.  Interest in development doesn't equal more titles. If Japanese devs were truly interested we would see more Japanese games on PS4. As of yet that doesn't really seem to be the case.  Looking at the release schedule for PS4 in Japan it seems it may be that way for quite some time. 

It's all because Atlus never released a Persona game this gen. Thanks guys, you killed console gaming in Japan.

Wouldn't you think those games are avalible here in the west too?  Just a bit harder to find.

I wonder if demographics have anything to do with it.  In the West the average age of a gamer has gone up.  Older people, like people over 30+ aren't as interested in small phone games because the ways the eye changes as we get older.  A big screen becomes even nicer, and at that age more people can afford them.

Is there any info on the age of an average gamer in Japan?  In the west I think it's now like mid to late 30's.

I think you make some great points.  The 'Easier to develop for' might be more buzzwords and compaiting it to the PS3.  Some developers I know here were really unhappy with the PS3 documentation they got with the dev kits.  Almost like a little palmplet with either broken impossible to follow English or only in Japanese.  And they were working for Sony.