Soleron said:
It no longer makes sense to frame this generation's sales in terms of Xbox One "winning" or "losing" versus PS4.
Publishers are compelled to make every major third party game for both if they ever want to make money. There will be the occasional exclusive but it will be about a specific niche served by one console that can be done on lower budgets (JRPGs) or with extremely large financing deals (Titanfall). It's no longer possible to put a global major franchise on one or the other just for artistic or continuity reasons.
Therefore, all your favourite games WILL come to your platform of choice, and your console WILL survive for as long as the other one does. Winning in sales numbers does nothing to ensure that you recieve the few exclusives, because they're about which first party is willing to pay up. The relative sales numbers will not affect your gaming experience for this generation in any way.
The real fight this generation is against disinterest. The real threat to the games you love making it to your chosen console is that they become financially unviable to bring to ANY platform. If games like Call of Duty and Assassins Creed continue to decline in sales with their next few installments, third parties will seriously look at cutting back on HD development, just like Square Enix is already doing according to their Annual Report.
When the sales figures come out, whether your console has won or lost against the other one has no value to you. Look for the overall health of the industry: hardware sales compared to this point in last gen, software sales compared to past series entries (especially for those franchises just outside the top tier), and most importantly quarterly earnings statements from third parties.
What good is it that your console beat the other one if all the third parties go mobile?
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What you say is not necessarily wrong but it is a very LIMITED and NARROW look at the game. You are only looking at it from a GLOBAL perspective as if all regions are affected only by the average sales. That's just not true. Your arguments WILL hold for North America, but elsewhere NOT.
There will be many region specific or region tailored games. Because of the dominance of PS4 in Europe, and in Japan, and basically everywhere but the English Speaking Countries, you'll see a huge shift towards playstation, many of those titles going with either of the following options...
- there will be a lot more third party games exclusive to PS4 than XB1,
- there will be more games created with PS4 in mind first, then ported over
- there will be many games released first on PS4
- there will be games with more additional content for PS4
- the graphical gap will widen as there will be more games taking advantage of the supeior PS4 hardware.
The relative experience you'll get to enjoy with XB1 will heavily depend on your region. The LEAST disparity will be in NA, which is pretty much what we see today (or a bit larger), but the gap will turn into a chasm elsewhere, especially in Japan (and to some extent in the Continental Europe).