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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Wii U to rule in Japan: yay!

Fusioncode said:
Like I said,  I'm not gonna bother arguing with someone who has such a smug, condescending attitude. Let me know when you want to grow up, until then, we're done here. 

I called you out on your lack of knowledge, and your response was to tell me I had an attitude problem. If I'm coming across as condescending, it's because I'm using facts and calling you out on bullshit. My original post pointing out your lack of knowledge was intended to goad you into actually learning about the thing you're arguing about, and offering a more meaningful debate, rather than posting what was basically borderline trolling.

My first response to you was entirely mature. Your response was not remotely so. Then I called you out and pointed out the errors. A mature response from you would be to have rectified your rather noticeable errors, or at least justified your comments. Instead, you attack my "attitude", which is more like "it's not what he said, it's the way he said it!"

I work off facts. I abhor fallacies. This is why I didn't just go "you don't know what you're talking about" and leave it at that. Now, if you don't have anything meaningful to contribute, I'll just go ahead and finally make a direct comment on the original topic of the thread.

 

I don't think that the Wii U will do quite as well as necessary to "rule" in Japan. That said, I think it will remain ahead of the PS4. My reasoning for this is that Japanese developers aren't running away from the Wii U the way that certain Western developers are (Square Enix is the least active, and their output wasn't any better on the Wii). Meanwhile, the PS4 delay will harm the image of the PS4 in the eyes of the Japanese, as I suspect they'll see it as Sony ignoring their home market in favour of most of the rest of the world, and the Japanese have a greater tendency to be... patriotic isn't quite the right word, but I think you get what I mean.

And, as I've noted, almost all of the biggest franchises in Japan are on the Wii U, or will be soon. The only exception to that is Final Fantasy, and I wouldn't be surprised if FF XV were announced for the Wii U some time in late 2014, prior to release of the game (given that it was originally in development for PS3, and the PS3 version was only cancelled when it was realised that the PS3 would be past the end of its lifecycle, I could see them porting the code over to Wii U from there). I don't expect the game until 2015, anyway. The next franchise after that is Street Fighter, and I see that showing up on the Wii U, if only because Yoshinori Ono said that the problem with the PS4 and Xbox One were the size and cost of the dev team necessary for making Street Fighter V on those systems, but that he wanted to make the game for eighth-gen consoles.

Given the relatively strong sales that the Wii U is now enjoying, and the fact that it is likely to do even better in the next week or two of sales, and settle into a nice routine... probably somewhere between 15k and 30k per week (that's my prediction, with 22k being my guess for the average over the first eight full weeks of 2014, maybe 25k if DKC:TF gets a nice boost)... prior to the release of the PS4, I see the Wii U maintaining a lead, at least for a good 3-4 years. Whether it will remain ahead at the end depends on factors I can't predict, like franchises moving from one platform to the other, pricing changes, global or local financial issues, etc.

If I had to make a prediction regarding 2014, I'd say that the PS4 will probably end up selling 1.5 million by the end of the year (which places it around where the Wii U's total sales will be by the end of 2013 in Japan), while the Wii U will probably end up selling around the same amount. Indeed, I wouldn't be too surprised if sales from here on are rather similar between PS4 and Wii U (with the only difference being the first 6 weeks or so from launch, when launch sales are still in effect), so that the Wii U retains somewhere around a 1.5 million unit lead. And I think both systems will gain momentum in 2015 beyond the 1.5 million I'm predicting, with a partial resurgence of console gaming.

For those that think this sounds unreasonable, consider that the PS3 and Wii sold just over 1.5 million each in 2010. This seems like a reasonable baseline, around the point where the PS3 and Wii were both in decline, but not struggling as they have been more recently. I also think the PS3 will be manage somewhere around 500k in 2014, which is about what the Wii did in 2012. This would put the PS3 somewhere around 2.4 million behind the Wii at that point. I don't see the PS3 doing much beyond that, just as the Wii dropped off a cliff once the Wii U was fully out (Wii is at 70k this year).

Anyway, that gives people a sense of my thinking. There's a little more going into it than I've detailed here, but I've rambled on enough for now.



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Why do you think 3rd parties will flood the Wii U if it finds its foot in Japan? Protip: They won't.



disastorm said:

im really interested in seeing how Wii u does this gen. I think that at least in the US and Japan, it really has a chance to do well, maybe even doing better than the Xbone (in the US, of course it will in Japan), although I don't know what the deal with Europe is, is the culture over there really that much different than both the US and Japan (which already have incredibly different cultures to begin with).


No. The Xbone has penetrated the US market and is now in the culture. Sorry. Microsoft is in second and Nintendo is back to basics unless they change things.



Aielyn said:
Rafux said:
Remind me again where will japanese people play NEXT GEN Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid, Kingdom Hearts, Yakuza, Metal Gear Rising, Devil May Cry, Gran Turismo and Street Fighter series among others? Oh thats right on PS4.

Wii U with one year ahead of games and exclusives can't beat a console with no stock to be found.

Remind me, which of those franchises (not counting the spinoff Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles games) were found on the Wii? Oh, that's right, the Wii dominated in Japan without any of them.

Meanwhile, the Wii U has (or will have) Dragon Quest, Monster Hunter, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Mario, Donkey Kong, and Wii series. Do you know what sets those franchises apart? They represent 36 of the top 41 games ever in Japan, with the remaining five being Final Fantasy 7 and 8, Tomodachi Collection, Tetris, and Brain Training. Number 42 is Street Fighter.

So tell me again how PS4 has all of the exclusives that the Japanese people want.

You would make it sound like Sony never had a chance against Nintendo's franchises, but PS1 & PS2 sure did by a 4 or 5 to 1 margin in Japan.

Half of those top games are from the 90's.  Those numbers from the 90's don't matter, and neither do the DS and Wii numbers port freely to the Wii U.



My 8th gen collection

Does anyone know what happened to Monster Hunter Frontier G?? It was supposed to launch on December 11th on Japan for the WiiU but I can´t find it on any chart for those days. Did it bomb that hard?? or was it delayed??



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naruball said:
farlaff said:
naruball said:
farlaff said:
naruball said:
farlaff said:

 if we take what is happening now in, say, the US, where the sales of the U are not much far from those of the PS4 (even though the latter has all the hype train to help it) as any indication, Japan is to see Nintendo rule there again 


Not to rain on your parade, but not sure if serious. You do realize that the ps4 is suffering from massive shortages, right? Basically, every console they can ship, they sell. Even after the holidays, if there are no shortages, the ps4 will suffer from a drought and some will wait till next holidays when it has a decent library. I think in order to make a fair comparison, you'll have to wait till then.

Now when it comes to Japan, you absolutely have to wait till the ps4 launch. No matter how much you love Ninty, you just have to wait till after the ps4 shortages end in Japan before jumping to any conclusions. 

I AM serious. The supposed shortage is just part of the answer. If that is all of it, why is PS3 still selling so well? Wouldn't it be natural that those people buying the 3 should in fact be waiting to buy the 4? 

For the regular Joe, PS4 is not much of an upgrade and the market WILL suffer from that. Whereas, debatable as it is, the gamepad does add something different.

The fact that the ps3 is selling relatively well is by no means an inidication that the ps4 will not sell well. You're assuming that it's the same audience buying ps3's that would buy ps4's. The people buying ps3's might be casuals who don't care about the next generation, people who weren't planning on buying a ps4 till 2016 or people who bought it as a gift (and a ps4 is not an affordable gift for friends or non immediate family). The fact that there are constantly shortages suggests that there is strong demand for a ps4. I mean it's almost out of stock everywhere. Just because the gamepad sounds more of an upgrade to you, it doesn't mean that the masses see it that way.

The regular Joe won't buy a ps4 any time soon. It's the hardcore gamers that buy ps4, people who are willing to line up for hours to get their console of choice. The ps3 created a huge hardcore community and it's thanks to them that the ps4 is doing so well. They made the ps4 into a hot item which now even people that weren't planning on buying one, are (therea are such reports from vgc members about what their friends or their customers have done). It's a lot like an iphone. Is a new model necessary or much of an upgrade? Not at all. But because of social media and all the websites, such as 9gag, there's a lot of pressure on teenagers and young adults to keep up in order to look cool. Unfortunately for Ninty, the wiiU doesn't have that image. It's simply not a desireable product to that democraphic.The last positive wiiU post I saw on 9gag about wiiU was a few months ago (it basically showed how wiiU despite popular opinion HAS games), while I see several almost every day about ps4's and how excited people were when they got one for Christmas (from their gfs or parents). There are also a few about Xbone, but not nearly as many as for ps4. Back when wii was popular there were tons of posts of people saying how their tv broke from throwing their wii controler by accodent, or tv starts using the controlers. Now, there's nothing for wiiu (though there are several postitve ones about Ninty characters/franchises). Ninty never had a big enough hardcore fanbase and they haven't gotten the casuals on board yet. 

I hear and respect all of your points, but my thread is based on Japan only, not the general market, as your post seems to connect to it.  I just hope that WiiU will dominate there and, as of now, the numbers seem to be at my side. It can change in the future, but things are not too shabby for a machine totally doomed just one month ago.


Absolutely agreed with the bolded. My disagreement was with your point about America and that's why I left the rest of the op out. Also, like I said, it's a bit premature to make any predictions in Japan but I guess we'll have to wait and see. It'd be interesting to bump this thread if you end up being right though. 


First, thanks for keeping the discussion on such a high note. And, as for my point on America, I intended to mention it as an indication, nothing more. Also, as a kind of hope from my side. But if VGChartz numbers are correct, PS4 sales are indeed impressive, what makes my prediction rather difficult.



General gamer, fanboy hater

The not so popular consoles (except Xbox) seem to do well in Japan

The Saturn, Dreamcast, N64, PSP and now Vita and Wii U seem to sell well and get good support



Xbox One, PS4 and Switch (+ Many Retro Consoles)

'When the people are being beaten with a stick, they are not much happier if it is called the people's stick'- Mikhail Bakunin

Prediction: Switch will sell better than Wii U Lifetime Sales by Jan 1st 2018

cacafina said:
Does anyone know what happened to Monster Hunter Frontier G?? It was supposed to launch on December 11th on Japan for the WiiU but I can´t find it on any chart for those days. Did it bomb that hard?? or was it delayed??


I don't think it has come out yet. It has my interest though.



General gamer, fanboy hater

johnlucas said:
Mummelmann said:
benji232 said:
Mummelmann said:
A holiday boost, no competition and numbers still below Gamecube levels for christmas equals ruling Japan now? I think this is a very premature statement. That said; I'd be surprised if any home console manages more than 12-15 million in Japan this gen.

Right.

GameCube, 2002:
Week 49, 39,849
Week 50, 44,902
Week 51, 66,410
Week 52, 60,290

Wii U, 2013:
Week 49, 46,773
Week 50, 72,982
Week 51, 119,159


Right. Have you seen the 2003 numbers for GC in Japan for this week? Week 51 was 129k as I recall, these numbers are not overly impressive, especially with no competition. The Wii U is still behind the GC in Japan at this point, GC sold about 1.040.000 units in 2003 in Japan, Wii U still has a ways to go to sell over one million in one year here.

"still below Gamecube levels for christmas" really nothing in there about "christmas 2002", is there? Or christmas 2004 for that matter, which was pretty bad. You might think that it's unfair to compare the GC's best holiday with the Wii U's worst (for now) but then again; the Wii U has no competition, the GC already had the PS2 to battle at this point and still managed a pretty good holiday in 2003, even in the West. There's no way to tell whether next holiday will be better or worse with some actual competition, so it is also way too soon to be calling the Wii U the victor in Japan.

People are so hung up on shooting down One and PS4 predictions based on launch hype (and rightly so) and saying that there is no proper data to draw any conclusion from, but make ridiculous claims like the OP at the same time, it's equally silly since we actually don't have any valid data to go by for now. If the Wii U outsells the PS4 weekly through 2014 after the PS4's launch and then beats it during holidays 2014, then we can start making these claims.

I mean, honestly; are you impressed with what the Wii U has accomplished with its one year head start?


You said Wii U was below Gamecube levels for Christmas in Japan even with the holiday boost.
benji232 CORRECTED you by showing the real numbers of both Gamecube & Wii U in their 2nd holiday seasons.
Since Gamecube came out in Japan on September 14, 2001, it went through the 2001 holiday season (a launch holiday season).
He shows the holiday season of 2002 to illustrate the next holiday season without launch fever.
Since Wii U came out in Japan on December 8, 2012, it went through the 2012 holiday season (a launch holiday season).
He shows the holiday season of 2013 to illustrate the next holiday season without launch fever.
In doing this he shows the parallels between Gamecube & Wii U in similar spans of time.

What's the issue here?
You made a statement. benji232 corrected you with documented facts.
He showed aligned comparable time periods when he made his corrections.
It shows clearly that Wii U is in a MUCH better position than Gamecube was.
Which points to the topic of Wii U making its turnaround, a subject I myself have been championing in a certain thread elsewhere on this forum.

The Wii U will not be the Gamecube no matter how much some people want it to be like that.
2014 will make sure Wii U's phoenix rise will be apparent to ALL.
John Lucas


Yes, he did show me holiday 2002 numbers, I never specified 2002. My point is that the Gamecube has moved more hardware during the holidays in Japan than the Wii U currently is, and that was even while competing with the world record breaking PS2 aka the best selling console in the history of video games. The PS2 has likely sold around 20-25 million units and Japan, about 5-6 times more than the Gamecube and yet the Wii U is failing to beat these numbers without competition. That's kind of amazing when you think about it.

You always berate others for clinging to the launch hype and drawing conclusions based on poor or even non-existant data and then go about claiming the Wii U's victory in Japan even before the competition has launched, in other words; based on poor and/or non-existant data and it's ridiculous.

What't the issue here? I correctly stated that the Wii U has yet to reach Gamecube levels in holiday sales in Japan, benji and you were the ones who imposed 2002 numbers on the argument, I never specified that, as is plain to see in my post. What I'm telling you is that the Gamecube managed higher weekly sales while competing with the best selling console in history and that is not an insignificant piece of data. We don't know anything about what the PS4 will do in Japan, what we do know is that in all regions of the world at present; the Wii U has not set the bar very high at all. We simply don't know how the Wii U will fare with actual competition, the PS3 was never big there, it is still well below 10 million units and is 7 years old by now.

For the record; I think the Wii U will be up yoy in both Japan and globally in 2014 but not nearly as much as many are assuming and I also believe that the vast majority of uses are seriously overestimating the PS4 and the 8th gen in general.

And the Wii U won't be what the Wii never was no matter how much you want it to be, I find it hilarious to be adressed on this matter by a person who uses cherry picked data to promote all his points ("domination" in a Japan with no competition being one of them, Wii U beating the PS4 for a week in NA due to extreme supply issues despite yelling about the Wii's potential with sufficent supplies back in the day, in your youtube video that is) and who believes the Wii U will sell at least 39 million on average every year from here on out (given that it has a life cycle the same as the PS3) and a 900-1000% increase in year-over-year sales in 2014 while both the One and PS4 will fall flat on their asses. It is incredibly, fantastically ridiculous at best.

Yeah, you're back to linking people to your ridiculous UNITY thread, it must be terribly upsetting that it has all but died lately and all the attention is seeping away. Even your most stoic fans have retreated to their foxholes and even refuse to answer most of my posts and are blocking their profiles. It's rather amazing to witness, almost as amazing as you trying to come in here and school me. Especially after the PM's that were revealed, they uncovered that your agenda and motivation is exactly what I said it was.

I suggest you go read up some more on hardware architecture and programming instead, fill in the blanks, so to speak.



aryu said:
Goremichel said:
Wii U will winning the run of the most selling hardware. Second place will be xbox one, third xbox 360, than ps3 and than ps4


This was actually hard to read lol your grammar is horrible.


It is so horrible because I am a german boy, I am not good with the english language



Zelda - Breath of the Wild for Nintendo Switch.... Incredable!!!