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Forums - Sony Discussion - A Difference of Less than 20 Million Consoles Separate PS3 and Wii

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Dulfite said:

I think ps3 falls well short because the ps3 will decline in sales rapidly over the next 12 months just like the Wii did after Wii U came out.

 The Wii was on an extremely heavy decline long before the Wii-U even came out, and the Wii only hit it's decline because the gimmick that is it's existence finally died. PS3 is a games console that is still recieving heavy support, just as the PS2 was, and will continue to sell as a result. Hence why despite the successful release of the PS4, the PS3 is still doing exceptional.

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TheSource said:

PS3 is only going to sell like 6-7 million globally in 2014, and then after that each year will decline by a couple million. Look at the US and Japan - PS3 is going to be at like 2.3m in the US and 800k in Japan during 2013.

PS3 2011 - 14.7m

PS3 2012 - 12.6m

PS3 2013 ~ 9.5m ish (we're 48 weeks through the year, and it's at 7.5m right now)

PS3 at end of 2013: 83m

PS3 2014 ~ 6.5m (1.4m US, 600k Japan, 2.5m Europe, 2m elsewhere - down from 2.3m US, 800k Japan, 3.5m Europe, 2.9m elsewhere in 2013)

PS3 2015 ~3.5m (500k US, 200k Japan, 1.3m Europe, 1.5m elsewhere)

PS3 2016 ~1.5m (50k US, 20k Japan, 630k Europe, 800k elsehwere)

PS3 2017 ~0.5m (100k Europe, 400k elsewhere)

Should get to the mid 90 millions - but I don't see PS3 topping 100m and Wii is already there. You have to remember the PS3 / X360 need to both perform well for those platforms to get software and X360 is in a further state of decline than PS3, so that should hurt PS3 quite a bit going forward, particularly for stuff that has to do well in the US where the PS3 base is much smaller than the X360 base. The X360 will probably get to 81m at the end of the year (6.6m), but then fall to 3.5 in 2014, 1.5m in 2015, and 0.5m in 2016 - so the "HD" market that used to support 300m units of sw for publishers on PS3 + X360 is long gone - in 2014 it will probably collapse to 120m games for both systems combined, and then 60m in 2015, m in 2016, 20m in 2017, 5m in 2018, nothing thereafter.

You have to remember Sony will shift PS3 to the emerging markets just like they did with the PS and PS2, PS3 will be irrelevant in the US in 2-3 years. But in the emerging markets, PS3 is finally becoming affordable.

Looking at past data, PS1 sold +20m units after PS2, PS2 sold +55m after PS3. PS3 is tracking higher than PS1 for the last few years. Its decline will be slower in the next years due to strong sw releases, its guaranteed of another 20 million atleast.

PS3 2013 83.5-84m

PS3 2014 90-91m

PS3 2015 95m

PS3 2016 99m

PS4 2017 ~102m

yes, but will take 7th and 8th gen to ps3 win the 7th gen.

It would have to average about 128K higher sales over the Wii weekly for 3 years. Doable... but sounds crazy difficult.

4 ≈ One

Here's the deal. PS2 sold about 33% of it's total sales after its successor came out. That was after 6 years of life as the head console. PS3 has been around for 7 years as the main console. It only needs to sell 20% of its total sales post PS4 launch. I think that's highly doable. Just looking at it mathematically based on the past Sony generation it should make it.

But that's not all there is to it. There's also the fact that PS2 was $200 far less into its life cycle. PS3 JUST got to $200 and that's for an inferior model. Once we get to $100 for 12gb, $150 for 250gb, $200 for 500gb PS3 will keep selling a long while. Let's not forget the PS+ support and free online it will maintain (the only one out of the 4 systems games like Destiny will be releasing on) that will continue to give it a unique value in the market in the coming years. I think they'll end up at 105-110m easily.

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ps3-sales! said:
It'll be close but I don't think, like others have said, Sony can drop the price drastically like the Ps2.

Wait next year with the super super slim PS3 with CELL at 20nm!!

Sony will sell bundles of GT6/TLOU at 199$ with 500BG HDD by millions!


Nobody will be able to resist those candies/bundles.

I believe PS3 will have sold around 90~95 million by 2016.

Let's also not forget that it is still selling well in America, and will have a decent Christmas. ( Talking about the Wii) Will it be around next Christmas? Nintendo seems to be cutting down on systems as they are killing off the DS after this christmas totally according to Gamestop. So I would not be surprised if it is discontinued by next christmas ( mini as well) and only what is left over at retailers still sells. That still gives it another year to push out a few million. The PS3 is trying to catch a system that is still selling, and for a dead system, it is doing fairly well for the holiday season.
Nothing close to it's old sales.
Anyways....add 1-2 million more to the total that the PS3 has to over come. Some of you are saying 2016 & 2017? Pshaw!

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PS3 still costs a weeks pay in plenty European nations, now think how pricey it may be in other parts of the world.

Sales will drop but maintain as price drops, PS3 still has plenty more selling to. For the next two year ill get versions of the big games, publishers will not forget a PS3/360 user base of +160 million any time soon.

If PS3 does eventually outsell the Wii, I know there will be plenty of threads discussing how PS3 'wins' 7th gen. But how can they be winners of that gen when it has already finished? IMO, Wii won the gen because it led at the closing of 7th gen and start of 8th gen and saying "PS3 wins 7th gen halfway through 8th gen' is completely redundant