| TheSource said: PS3 is only going to sell like 6-7 million globally in 2014, and then after that each year will decline by a couple million. Look at the US and Japan - PS3 is going to be at like 2.3m in the US and 800k in Japan during 2013. PS3 2011 - 14.7m PS3 2012 - 12.6m PS3 2013 ~ 9.5m ish (we're 48 weeks through the year, and it's at 7.5m right now) PS3 at end of 2013: 83m PS3 2014 ~ 6.5m (1.4m US, 600k Japan, 2.5m Europe, 2m elsewhere - down from 2.3m US, 800k Japan, 3.5m Europe, 2.9m elsewhere in 2013) PS3 2015 ~3.5m (500k US, 200k Japan, 1.3m Europe, 1.5m elsewhere) PS3 2016 ~1.5m (50k US, 20k Japan, 630k Europe, 800k elsehwere) PS3 2017 ~0.5m (100k Europe, 400k elsewhere) Should get to the mid 90 millions - but I don't see PS3 topping 100m and Wii is already there. You have to remember the PS3 / X360 need to both perform well for those platforms to get software and X360 is in a further state of decline than PS3, so that should hurt PS3 quite a bit going forward, particularly for stuff that has to do well in the US where the PS3 base is much smaller than the X360 base. The X360 will probably get to 81m at the end of the year (6.6m), but then fall to 3.5 in 2014, 1.5m in 2015, and 0.5m in 2016 - so the "HD" market that used to support 300m units of sw for publishers on PS3 + X360 is long gone - in 2014 it will probably collapse to 120m games for both systems combined, and then 60m in 2015, m in 2016, 20m in 2017, 5m in 2018, nothing thereafter. |
You have to remember Sony will shift PS3 to the emerging markets just like they did with the PS and PS2, PS3 will be irrelevant in the US in 2-3 years. But in the emerging markets, PS3 is finally becoming affordable.
Looking at past data, PS1 sold +20m units after PS2, PS2 sold +55m after PS3. PS3 is tracking higher than PS1 for the last few years. Its decline will be slower in the next years due to strong sw releases, its guaranteed of another 20 million atleast.
PS3 2013 83.5-84m
PS3 2014 90-91m
PS3 2015 95m
PS3 2016 99m
PS4 2017 ~102m
