The results haven't been finalized yet, but I'm going to estimate my winnings anyway based on this week's sales. *Opens Excel*
I bet $275, and it looks like I'm only up $63. I lost a bit on Brawl estimates, and my big bet on Wii Fit sales didn't make up for it as much because sales were lower than expected. I actually lost more on Mario Party DS and Wii Play, despite betting less on those games. Wii Play really screwed me over.
I was dead on for PSP hardware but only wagered $10. Bugger.
| Game | Guess | Wager | Actual | Accuracy | Closeness | Return | Earnings |
| Brawl | 400000 | $50.00 | 842536 | 47.48% | 47.48% | $47.48 | ($2.52) |
| DMC4 PS3 | 130000 | $5.00 | 208837 | 62.25% | 62.25% | $6.22 | $1.22 |
| Wii Fit | 100000 | $100.00 | 70594 | 141.66% | 58.34% | $116.69 | $16.69 |
| Disgaea 3 | 35000 | $5.00 | 58013 | 60.33% | 60.33% | $6.03 | $1.03 |
| DMC4 360 | 30000 | $5.00 | 42917 | 69.90% | 69.90% | $6.99 | $1.99 |
| Wii Sports | 30000 | $20.00 | 23702 | 126.57% | 73.43% | $29.37 | $9.37 |
| Mario and Sonic | 40000 | $5.00 | 34431 | 116.17% | 83.83% | $8.38 | $3.38 |
| Mario Party DS | 40000 | $5.00 | 20397 | 196.11% | 3.89% | $0.39 | ($4.61) |
| Wii Play | 20000 | $20.00 | 11670 | 171.38% | 28.62% | $11.45 | ($8.55) |
| Monster Hunter | 18000 | $5.00 | 17188 | 104.72% | 95.28% | $9.53 | $4.53 |
| Wii | 90000 | $20.00 | 97723 | 92.10% | 92.10% | $36.84 | $16.84 |
| DS | 85000 | $10.00 | 69511 | 122.28% | 77.72% | $15.54 | $5.54 |
| PS3 | 30000 | $10.00 | 39676 | 75.61% | 75.61% | $15.12 | $5.12 |
| PSP | 70000 | $10.00 | 69655 | 100.50% | 99.50% | $19.90 | $9.90 |
| Xbox 360 | 5000 | $5.00 | 6108 | 81.86% | 81.86% | $8.19 | $3.19 |
| Total/Average | | $275.00 | | | 67.34% | $338.12 | $63.12 |
I've also calculated a number that I call my "allocation effectiveness". This is calculated by taking your average "closeness" score, and determining your winnings based on your total wager. That is, if you had bet the same amount of money on everything, what would you have won? Divide your actual return by this value to obtain your allocation effectiveness. Mine was 0.91, meaning I would've done better if I had bet the same amount on everything. :(
EDIT: You can download the spreadsheet if you want, and just fill in your predictions to get your results.
