I believe MS and Sony basically will devide a market share of about 40% each between them, with Nintendo lagging slightly behind with about 20%. I do not think this coming generation will sell even close to the current one, unless they all step up their game and offer something that is more than just an upgrade to the current generation.

This coming generation will also be heavily front-loaded (just look at WiiU) and I even have a hard time seeing any of them having a year where they sell upwards of 10-15 million.

It mostly depends on Kinect

There is a huge joker on the table and unconsciously it is the reason why X1 is the most discussed console even after the controversies on DRm and always on have been appeased.

Other strong variables are :

preferred console by families/ kids
1st party/ console exclusive power
where will the Nintendo home consol-ers go
3rd party superior versions

This just isn't true. The PS2 launched a full year before its main competitors (the DreamCast didn't put up a fight), had extraordinary levels of exclusive third party support, was $100 cheaper, included a DVD player (a big draw at the time) and was going on the back of the PS1, at the time the best selling console in history.

I fully believe that the PS4 will outsell its competitors, but it's silly to expect it to sell four times as much as its competitors combined like the PS2 did. I don't think it will even get 50% marketshare looking at all three consoles together, and to answer the poll question, I imagine it will have about 60% of the PS4-Xbone marketshare.

One thing is for sure. Sony's market share is definitely going up this gen considering they basically gave Xbox a 2 year headstart last gen and Wii was disrupting everything. Can't see them going anywhere but up considering how well they've done with a $600 starting price, being late to market, and having to build their online network up this gen (only got good around 08).

If MS fails miserably, you better believe they will go all out on the next iteration of Xbox and hold nothing back. Kind of like they did with the OG Xbox.

Not sure if serious...

where were you when the wii expanded the market ?

Fact is :

 - Xbox is aiming hardcore fans even better than last gen (brand power/ 1st party/ exclusives/ existing userbase/ pre-orders)

- and potentially aiming casual fans better than Wii did (young and already huge market created by PS Eye, Wii and Kinect) and adding TV

X1 is playing two sets of cards, on two different segments, can you not see that clearly ?

I think that at the end of the gen we will very surprised with the results...

You did not respond to what I posted...maybe try again? You proclaimed that it's mostly about Kinect. Now proceed to discuss other things? So were you serious or not?

I think it'll be around 75%(PS4)-25%(X1)(+-5%), and ps4 overpoise is much more likely.