the xbox one would have failed miserably,.. but the xbox 180 is going to do just fine.

..yes, it will have a much slower start than ps4 due to $500 vs. $400 but if you were paying attention last gen the ps360 had several reversals in momentum and ps3 started with a bigger handicap being $600 vs. $400.

ps4 and xbone will be close in market share especially in the long run. wiiU is a bit of a wild card. if it can't reverse it's momentum it will be a distant 3rd but it might be able to carve out moderate success in the end.

PS4: 115 mill
Xbone: 60 mill
Wii U: 35 mill (will be replaced much earlier than PS4/Xbone)

So between PS4 and Xbone it's 65/35% marketshare.

You have hit it right on the head as far as where the XB1 is HOPING to deliver to.

The reality is, just like the Wii, is that you don't ever really know what consumers will latch onto.  I have said this a number of times, M4 is delivering a versatile and unique gaming system.  The PS4 is delivering PS3.5.  Of course, the core gamers will love the basic power of the PS4 and Sony's more extensive 1st party support.  The problem is that the 60%+ of the gaming market could really give a shit about that.  Most of them want a machine that can play COD/Battlefield(Maybe Titanfall) and maybe offer them something on top of that.  If M$ can reel in that group with the XB1's unique features, then things can change quickly.  The original Wii wasn't sucessful because of its price, it was because it was a cultural phenomenon(Fad).  I doubt that the mass market is really interested in another wave of motion gaming, but a combination of that and the media features may KINECT with them.

If Kinect turns heads and explodes, XB1 100 Million, PS4 70 Million.

If the market ignores the XB1's features, PS4 70 Million, XB1 55 Million.

I don't see the Wii U lasting for three more years, so I believe it'll be last.

That said, I think Nintendo knows where it's fortunes lie and will doing a lot to invest in a hybrid home/mobile gaming system.

No one will have >50% marketshare, just like this gen.

My guess is dead on 50%

PlayStation 4 - 110 million
Xbox One - 60 million
Wii U - 50 million

I base this on Sony winning Asia, Europe, "rest of world" comfortably and taking back significant market share in North America. I still think Microsoft and Nintendo could do well and be profitable in this possible outcome.

Pretty much. Some, like myself, think it's going to backfire. But it's not out of the question it could become a key seller. 

People are waaay to positive when predicting PS4 marketshare...

I mean 60% really? What are you guys basing this on? Launch hype?

...the PS4 outselling the Wii by 1.5 times is more than a touch optimistic, unless you intend to count well beyond whenever the 9th gen begins. The PS2 just hit 150 million, and we're already 2 generations past its release.

In all honesty, I can't picture the size of market share being the same as last generation, now that the "new-ness" of motion control has worn off and the casual market isn't as big of an influence.

Personally, I'd wager the PS4 getting close to 100 million before 8th gen ends, and the Wii U and X-Box One battling it out for a distant second. With a $500 price tag, I could very easily picture the X-Box One finishing last. 

chances are itll be ps4 then x1 then wiiu