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fighter said:
It mostly depends on Kinect

There is a huge joker on the table and unconsciously it is the reason why X1 is the most discussed console even after the controversies on DRm and always on have been appeased.

Other strong variables are :

preferred console by families/ kids
1st party/ console exclusive power
where will the Nintendo home consol-ers go
3rd party superior versions

Pretty much. Some, like myself, think it's going to backfire. But it's not out of the question it could become a key seller.