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Forums - Gaming - What If Microsoft's X1 Becomes Last This Gen? (MarketShare)

 

How Much Difference Will MarketShare Be Between PS4 and X1?

X1 Wins With Around 60% 6 2.24%
 
PS4 Wins With Around 60% 75 27.99%
 
X1 Wins With Around 70% 3 1.12%
 
PS4 Wins With Around 70% 66 24.63%
 
X1 Wins With More Than 75% 5 1.87%
 
PS4 Wins With More Than 75% 47 17.54%
 
X1 Wins With A Little More Than 50% 11 4.10%
 
PS4 Wins With A Little More Than 50% 38 14.18%
 
Too hard to choose! 17 6.34%
 
Total:268
Groundking on 05 September 2013
landguy1 said:
fighter said:
dsgrue3 said:
fighter said:
It mostly depends on Kinect

Not sure if serious...

where were you when the wii expanded the market ?

 

Fact is :

 - Xbox is aiming hardcore fans even better than last gen (brand power/ 1st party/ exclusives/ existing userbase/ pre-orders)

- and potentially aiming casual fans better than Wii did (young and already huge market created by PS Eye, Wii and Kinect) and adding TV

 

X1 is playing two sets of cards, on two different segments, can you not see that clearly ?

You have hit it right on the head as far as where the XB1 is HOPING to deliver to.

The reality is, just like the Wii, is that you don't ever really know what consumers will latch onto.  I have said this a number of times, M4 is delivering a versatile and unique gaming system.  The PS4 is delivering PS3.5.  Of course, the core gamers will love the basic power of the PS4 and Sony's more extensive 1st party support.  The problem is that the 60%+ of the gaming market could really give a shit about that.  Most of them want a machine that can play COD/Battlefield(Maybe Titanfall) and maybe offer them something on top of that.  If M$ can reel in that group with the XB1's unique features, then things can change quickly.  The original Wii wasn't sucessful because of its price, it was because it was a cultural phenomenon(Fad).  I doubt that the mass market is really interested in another wave of motion gaming, but a combination of that and the media features may KINECT with them.

If Kinect turns heads and explodes, XB1 100 Million, PS4 70 Million.

If the market ignores the XB1's features, PS4 70 Million, XB1 55 Million.

Try saying that to the ps2...

I think anybody predicting sub 100 mill for the ps4, considering everything we know thus far needs their heads checking. As with EVERYTHING going against it the ps3 is almost certain to hit 90 mill with a chance at 100 mill, that's 3 home consoles hitting 100 mill, something only one other console has done.....

I predict 160 mill ps4 80 mill X1 and 55 mill WiiU giving the market at healthy 30 mill console growth of the market, and this is conservative as it's unclear how much and how far India's developing class will grow and how quickly China opens up which is where the real growth in the industry will be (I expect the western world to be flat lifetime) 



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Angelv577 on 05 September 2013

PS4: 100m = 45%
Xbox One: 70m = 32%
Wii U: 50m = 23%

Between PS4 and Xbox One:

PS4; 100m = 59%
Xbox One = 70m = 41%



Scisca on 05 September 2013

XO is targeting everyone, all the markets. In Poland we have a saying that when something is meant for everything, it's not worth a thing. The thing that destroys any casual appeal XO may have is the $500 price. The way I see it it's gonna be:

PS4 - 105 mil
XO - 55 mil
Wii U - 45 mil



Wii U is a GCN 2 - I called it months before the release!

My Vita to-buy list: The Walking Dead, Persona 4 Golden, Need for Speed: Most Wanted, TearAway, Ys: Memories of Celceta, Muramasa: The Demon Blade, History: Legends of War, FIFA 13, Final Fantasy HD X, X-2, Worms Revolution Extreme, The Amazing Spiderman, Batman: Arkham Origins Blackgate - too many no-gaemz :/

My consoles: PS2 Slim, PS3 Slim 320 GB, PSV 32 GB, Wii, DSi.

ChrolloLucilfer on 05 September 2013

It's still way too early to try estimate the lifetime sales of console who still yet to even launch. No matter how much hype either PS4/X1 console gets their are no guarantees that will equal sales outside their respective devoted fan bases. It still all to play for as we simply don't know how well the PS4/X1 will sell after their initial launch period and how Nintendo big hitters will effect Wii U sales. Only then will we get a more clear image of how generation 8 will pan out on the whole.



PigPen on 05 September 2013

To many gaming hardware on store shelves will make it hard to achieve even 50% of market share. That console will have to dominate all other consoles/handhelds to achieve that, and that is not likely. If the Xbox One was to have a 50% market share, all other hardware will have to have like a 6% share. You will have the 2DS, 3DS, Vita, Wii, Xbox360, PS3, Wii U, Xbox One and PS4. The Xbox One will outsell the PS4 in the long run. Exclusives will win out and determine the winner of this gen. Nintendo will also be getting exclusives too like Bayonetta 2.



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fighter on 05 September 2013
landguy1 said:
fighter said:
dsgrue3 said:
fighter said:
It mostly depends on Kinect

Not sure if serious...

where were you when the wii expanded the market ?

 

Fact is :

 - Xbox is aiming hardcore fans even better than last gen (brand power/ 1st party/ exclusives/ existing userbase/ pre-orders)

- and potentially aiming casual fans better than Wii did (young and already huge market created by PS Eye, Wii and Kinect) and adding TV

 

X1 is playing two sets of cards, on two different segments, can you not see that clearly ?

You have hit it right on the head as far as where the XB1 is HOPING to deliver to.

The reality is, just like the Wii, is that you don't ever really know what consumers will latch onto.  I have said this a number of times, M4 is delivering a versatile and unique gaming system.  The PS4 is delivering PS3.5.  Of course, the core gamers will love the basic power of the PS4 and Sony's more extensive 1st party support.  The problem is that the 60%+ of the gaming market could really give a shit about that.  Most of them want a machine that can play COD/Battlefield(Maybe Titanfall) and maybe offer them something on top of that.  If M$ can reel in that group with the XB1's unique features, then things can change quickly.  The original Wii wasn't sucessful because of its price, it was because it was a cultural phenomenon(Fad).  I doubt that the mass market is really interested in another wave of motion gaming, but a combination of that and the media features may KINECT with them.

If Kinect turns heads and explodes, XB1 100 Million, PS4 70 Million.

If the market ignores the XB1's features, PS4 70 Million, XB1 55 Million.

My thoughts exactly



fighter on 05 September 2013
dsgrue3 said:
fighter said:
dsgrue3 said:
fighter said:
It mostly depends on Kinect

Not sure if serious...

where were you when the wii expanded the market ?

 

Fact is :

 - Xbox is aiming hardcore fans even better than last gen (brand power/ 1st party/ exclusives/ existing userbase/ pre-orders)

- and potentially aiming casual fans better than Wii did (young and already huge market created by PS Eye, Wii and Kinect) and adding TV

 

X1 is playing two sets of cards, on two different segments, can you not see that clearly ?

You did not respond to what I posted...maybe try again? You proclaimed that it's mostly about Kinect. Now proceed to discuss other things? So were you serious or not?

would you like me to add subtitles ?



JoeTheBro on 06 September 2013

That's what I expect. Out of the gate I think it will do great but after 6 months that $500 price tag is really going to be a problem.



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dsgrue3 on 06 September 2013
fighter said:
dsgrue3 said:
fighter said:

where were you when the wii expanded the market ?

 

Fact is :

 - Xbox is aiming hardcore fans even better than last gen (brand power/ 1st party/ exclusives/ existing userbase/ pre-orders)

- and potentially aiming casual fans better than Wii did (young and already huge market created by PS Eye, Wii and Kinect) and adding TV

 

X1 is playing two sets of cards, on two different segments, can you not see that clearly ?

You did not respond to what I posted...maybe try again? You proclaimed that it's mostly about Kinect. Now proceed to discuss other things? So were you serious or not?

would you like me to add subtitles ?

I don't think you know what a subtitle is if you think it will help you back up your own claim...



S.T.A.G.E. on 06 September 2013
JoeTheBro said:
That's what I expect. Out of the gate I think it will do great but after 6 months that $500 price tag is really going to be a problem.


The Xbox will sell well regardless of the $500 price but I agree they've got to drop it if they want to stay competitive. Sony outsold the 360's launch year at $600 if you look back at the charts. Thats crazy. Anything can happen if you have value and people see value in it.