It won't happen... It's possible, but I just don't see it going down that way.

Early 2009

First of all the thread and the OP is just for breaking 50%...not necessarily this year. 

As for this year: Currently the Wii will need around 520k per month (starting in Feb) MORE than the 360 and PS3 combined to hit the 50% mark WW LTD in 2008. Or if you prefer thats about 121k per week (using 4.3 weeks per month).

Now lets take a quick look at last year:

The Wii averaged ~37k per week over the combined sales of the 360 and PS3. Using 4.3 weeks per month as a baseline that is only about 159k per month.

Those are the numbers, like it or not. Now, it is fair to say that there is reason to believe the Wii could increase and you can list the reasons if it makes you feel better but as of right now there is no reason to think the Wii will pass the mark this year.

Note that my quote in my sig is of Leo saying the Wii will "never" break 50%. Which of course is sort of the opposite end of the spectrum from folks who think it will pass by mid summer.

Welcome back ArtOfAngels. And to the topic: Sqrl sayed all necessary.

Late 2008 if there is enough shipped, otherwise first half of 2009. The reason there aren't as many Wiis being sold is because they are stocking for release of Brawl in NA.

In 2008, there's going to be 2 big trends for the Wii. The first: the system is perceived as the front runner and more and more customers will want to buy the Wii just because everybody else has it. The second: Nintendo has depleted their customer base. Let me explain what I mean by that.

When the DS started to sell in record numbers it didn't do that on the Brain Trainers alone. Nintendo could tap into the vast pool of 60 million GBA owners (as of Christmas 2004, when the DS launched) and "only" had to add some 20 % or so new customers with their Touch Generations games to realize the best videogame hardware sales ever.

The Wii however could only count on 20 million Gamecube owners. According to Reggie, most of the Wiis sold so far (at least in the US) went to these existing consumers. In 2008, there may be a few million Gamecube owners left to make the switch to Wii, but for the biggest part, Nintendo Wii sales will stand and fall with its ability to attract new customers. Which is fine, because as we know Nintendo is more innovative today then ever before. But it's very risky.

Long story short, for the Wii 2008 will be just as full of opportunity and risk as 2007 was. It could sell anywhere from 12 to 30 million. There's no way to predict that now.

To get back on topic, I do think that reaching 50 % market share should be a top priority for Nintendo. Otherwise the better technology of PS360 could hurt the Wii in the 2nd half of the console cycle. They should do not just one but 2 price drops, down to $199 and $149, this year should it be necessary to hit 50 % by March 2009. This would be a measure to reduce the risk (and win some 20, 30 million mainstream customers that are on PS2 now), but I almost feel like Nintendo would rather skip the grand prize of market domination in order to pursue their new markets because they hope they will be even bigger.

No, Key for Nintendo is getting their production rates up, right now they are still not meeting demand, until we can see the Wii in heavy supply in every store we can never be certain what its max demand is and whether it needs a price cut, nitendo needs to go over 2.5-2.7 million a month production i nthe coming yrar, hopefull they'll start ramping up a little more aggressively every 5 months

early 2009 as long as Ninty increases production

 Actually 2008 is possible with Production increases, if they get above 2.3 million per month this year

Either Q4 08 or never ... if they cant make it untill than , the PS3 will have enough steam to stop it reaching that point ...