In 2008, there's going to be 2 big trends for the Wii. The first: the system is perceived as the front runner and more and more customers will want to buy the Wii just because everybody else has it. The second: Nintendo has depleted their customer base. Let me explain what I mean by that.
When the DS started to sell in record numbers it didn't do that on the Brain Trainers alone. Nintendo could tap into the vast pool of 60 million GBA owners (as of Christmas 2004, when the DS launched) and "only" had to add some 20 % or so new customers with their Touch Generations games to realize the best videogame hardware sales ever.
The Wii however could only count on 20 million Gamecube owners. According to Reggie, most of the Wiis sold so far (at least in the US) went to these existing consumers. In 2008, there may be a few million Gamecube owners left to make the switch to Wii, but for the biggest part, Nintendo Wii sales will stand and fall with its ability to attract new customers. Which is fine, because as we know Nintendo is more innovative today then ever before. But it's very risky.
Long story short, for the Wii 2008 will be just as full of opportunity and risk as 2007 was. It could sell anywhere from 12 to 30 million. There's no way to predict that now.
To get back on topic, I do think that reaching 50 % market share should be a top priority for Nintendo. Otherwise the better technology of PS360 could hurt the Wii in the 2nd half of the console cycle. They should do not just one but 2 price drops, down to $199 and $149, this year should it be necessary to hit 50 % by March 2009. This would be a measure to reduce the risk (and win some 20, 30 million mainstream customers that are on PS2 now), but I almost feel like Nintendo would rather skip the grand prize of market domination in order to pursue their new markets because they hope they will be even bigger.
Hardcore gaming is a bubble economy blown up by Microsoft's $7 $6 billion losses.
