I was just reading an article about the staggering adoption rate of iPhones among teens in the U.S. (40% now which is up from 34% in Spring 2012 and 23% in Fall 2011) and which is predicted to increase even more next year.  Then there are tablet computers which were at 22% last year and and are at 44% this year - and that's before the iPad mini even goes on sale.  Seeing those numbers puts a new perspective on just how rapidly competition against dedicated gaming handhelds is increasing.

Of course those devices lack the big budget hardcore games that are the main selling point of Vita but in 2013 is seems like Vita will lack most of those as well.  Grand Theft Auto 5, Bioshock Infinite, Monster Hunter 4, Dead Space 3, Tomb Raider, Crysis 3, Rainbow 6: Patriots, Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Black List, Gears of War: Exile, The Last of Us, Lighting Returns: Final Fantasy 13, God of War: Ascension, DMC: Devil May Cry, Aliens: Colonial Marines, and dozens of other games of which none will be on Vita.

If that list doesn't seem stacked enough just consider the fact that it doesn't include the unannounced games that will be coming with the new system launches expected next year.  Speaking of those launches one in particular is a major threat to Vita.  The PS4 which since Sony has been actively targetting the existing PS3 userbase for Vita will present a real problem for it.  Will existing PS3 owners who haven't picked up a Vita by the first half of 2013 end up choosing it over PS4 in the second half?  I strongly suspect they won't and Vita sales will suffer in the crucial holiday months where the bulk of handhelds are sold because of it.

Finally there's the expected price cut that will undoubtedly lead to a jump in sales.  Without a string of major games to keep the momentum going it's hard to see just how it will be anything other than a temporary increase in sales.  I'm sure Sony is doing all they can right now to try to drum up support for the system but does anyone see any major exclusives or even major AAA ports outside of first party offerings being greenlit for it in the past couple of months considering its current sales?

Anyways I'm now going to go on record and predict that Vita will sell less in 2013 than 2012.

While I don't think it well sell that bad, I understand the essense of your message (a little bit of shock value in the thread headline to sell a point, it is okay). And I agree.

iPhone changed the world.

I think vita will pick up a bit over the holidays but will end the same way as psp and be short lived as third parties move to nintendo handhelds instead.

Hmm...hard to say. It will sell under 20m units in its lifetime; that's all I know. Perhaps under 15m

Yeah I remember a couple of years ago Nintendo considered Apple and not Microsoft and Sony as their enemy of the future.  At the time I thought they might have been overestimating Apple but now I think if anything they were dead on or even underestimating them.  I wrote this thread about Vita but it also applies to 3DS, it's just that the 3DS will likely squeak by with what will be considered decent sales (just not comparable to the DS since I think we'll see a rapid slowing down of 3DS sales compared to how the DS sold).

Edit: Here's an article about Nintendo in mid-2010 which if accurate shows they were worried about Apple even then.  I remember articles from 2009 in which Iwata claimed Apple wasn't a direct competitor but in which he felt uncomfortable making any kind of comparisons between iPhone and his products which seemed odd if he really believed that.

http://www.destructoid.com/nintendo-apple-is-the-enemy-of-the-future--173159.phtml

I actually remember Iwata saying that and everybody laughed at him. I recall someone saying he expects better from nintendo. Now look where we are. That is why nintendo are still here after all these years. They have the ability to sense a threat before it approaches.

I don't think 2013 is going to be great for the Vita, but it's going to do better in Japan. Soul Sacrifice, God Eater 2, and a few others will see to that. However, I anticipate a lot more content for 2014 as more studios finish up their PSP projects, which are still releasing. The problem for the Vita at the moment is that the support for the PSP in Japan is still excellent. I think we're going to see a major title announcement next year that opens the floodgates.

But yeah, tablets and smartphones might eventually kill quality games in the west.

I somehow doubt it. We will probably see enough decent hits and a pricecut. That alone will help the Vita sell on-par, probably even better in 2013, then it did in 2012.

Never the less, it will be mostly driven by the lone, 3rd party exclusives Sony manages to get, and some big Sony 1st party games. It will probably be enough to chug along for a couple of years, and managed to build a cult following.

I think the developers that made PSP games will look at the sales of 3DS and Vita and will switch to 3DS. There is nothing that would encourage developers to make games for the Vita.

it'll sell much much better in 2013.. with a price cut.. and bigger/more ip..