I was just reading an article about the staggering adoption rate of iPhones among teens in the U.S. (40% now which is up from 34% in Spring 2012 and 23% in Fall 2011) and which is predicted to increase even more next year. Then there are tablet computers which were at 22% last year and and are at 44% this year - and that's before the iPad mini even goes on sale. Seeing those numbers puts a new perspective on just how rapidly competition against dedicated gaming handhelds is increasing.
Of course those devices lack the big budget hardcore games that are the main selling point of Vita but in 2013 is seems like Vita will lack most of those as well. Grand Theft Auto 5, Bioshock Infinite, Monster Hunter 4, Dead Space 3, Tomb Raider, Crysis 3, Rainbow 6: Patriots, Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Black List, Gears of War: Exile, The Last of Us, Lighting Returns: Final Fantasy 13, God of War: Ascension, DMC: Devil May Cry, Aliens: Colonial Marines, and dozens of other games of which none will be on Vita.
If that list doesn't seem stacked enough just consider the fact that it doesn't include the unannounced games that will be coming with the new system launches expected next year. Speaking of those launches one in particular is a major threat to Vita. The PS4 which since Sony has been actively targetting the existing PS3 userbase for Vita will present a real problem for it. Will existing PS3 owners who haven't picked up a Vita by the first half of 2013 end up choosing it over PS4 in the second half? I strongly suspect they won't and Vita sales will suffer in the crucial holiday months where the bulk of handhelds are sold because of it.
Finally there's the expected price cut that will undoubtedly lead to a jump in sales. Without a string of major games to keep the momentum going it's hard to see just how it will be anything other than a temporary increase in sales. I'm sure Sony is doing all they can right now to try to drum up support for the system but does anyone see any major exclusives or even major AAA ports outside of first party offerings being greenlit for it in the past couple of months considering its current sales?
Anyways I'm now going to go on record and predict that Vita will sell less in 2013 than 2012.
