The main reason for the massive cost of HD console hardware was updating it to fit current gen shaders and post-rendering effects along with actually being able to output HD visuals (or near) at acceptable framerates, there is no such jump to the next gen (multicore rendering is a breeze now, for instance).
That means that they will largely build on current core tech and simply expand upon already existing paradigms for development and rendering, the compression rates will also stay very similar for textures, sound and other content.
This does not mean, however, that there won't be a significant leap in technology and the looks of games, especially physics and AI as a means of greater immersion will start to shine for real, and people say the same thing every gen anyway; "the visuals can't/don't need to get better now", which is simply false and a naive stance to assume for anyone.

Now, on to 3rd party support.
There is nothing to suggest that the WiiU will fare better than the Wii in terms of 3rd party support, what it will likely get in heaps instead is late PS360 ports to begin with. Very few 3rd parties will have the balls and patience, and not to mention desire, to utilize the GamePad is a meaningful way, thus leading to a situation similar to that of the Wii-mote; a brilliant controller which never realized its potential at all.
The way the Wii has simply gone and died at the end of the cycle and been crushed by the competition, with even Nintendo themselves not giving a damn (apparently) any longer is sure to make the already timid 3rd parties even more sceptical, and the few chances the Wii got to show its muscles as far as moving multiplatform titles with some actual effort put into it in any actual numbers have also come up lacking. (Remember when people said that Nintendo would follow their pattern and suddenly drop the console in favor of a new one/new one's? Guess what? It happened again, right on cue, Nintendo aren't as reformed as many would like to think sometimes).

Bottom line is; Nintendo are trying to attack two markets at the same time and will fall inbetween the chairs, they're trying to keep the casuals through continued production of casual titles and want to regain their core base and steal customers from the HD consoles all the while attempting to cater to tablet and handheld gamers with their rather unorthodox controller. Unorthodox might not always be a good thing and I think the tablet controller could prove to be the WiiU's greatest asset and weakness all at once.
Another issue will be the fact that Nintendo are playing catch-up on technology and features, where they'll quite simply be beat by better alternatives through smartphones, tablets, PC's and eventually the PS4 and X-box 720.
What they are bragging about as news is old news to users of other platforms and gear and the whole console just reeks of a little misguided design and desperation, they're attempting to be a jack-of all trades but master of none and this will be a great challenge to overcome.

They have lost a lot of face during the Wii's last two years or so and the amount of "I told you so"'s being flung their way is staggering, even Reggie is being mostly quiet these days and massive proponents such as Malstrom and some of our own zealots have abandoned ship a long time ago. Have any of you noticed the complete lack of outlandish claims and predictions for the WiiU and its lifespan? Surely, this console is being launched into a hesitant, fast moving, fickle and treacherous market where it may very well fall short of even moderate expecations (such as mine). If the Wii taught us anything, it would have to be that one is not underestimate Nintendo and one is not to overestimate them.

Could Nintendo win next gen? Sure, they could, as their opponents will be facing some of the same troubles and obstacles but to me it seems like they're trying to copy the success of the Wii, so much in fact, that they have lost their sense of direction. Their early presentations of the WiiU revealed a company in a daze, unprepared and shaken, having their hand forced to leap into the next generation first due to grave circumstances, this is never a good setup for a success.
The Wii was deliberate, focused and determined, the WiiU holds none of that quality and that is why I remain convinced that it has no chance to reach Wii-like sales, not even close (and I will keep repeating that).

Yeah, it shows how full of themselves sony still is.  In the hardcore market, Xbox owns this gen.  There are 3 upcoming games for PS3 that I'm aware of that are exclusive and might be worth having a PS3 for.  Then there's halo 4, and all the Mario goodness on WiiU.  PS3 is not a strong system, and it never has been.  PS3 might surpass Xbox before its all said and done, but it'll never breach 100 million.  That is a pipe dream.

Let's assume PS4 will cost 40k yen in japan - that roughly translate to $460. They could sell it at $399, taking a loss of 60 bucks. But they can't have a console costing more than that. Period. They can't afford taking bigger hits imo. Now, I don't know how much power a $460 console packs, but surely it can't be leaps over the WiiU?

So having 2gb os RAM is about the same as the 512 MB PS360 has? No, WiiU is next gen. You'll find out sooner or later that PS4 will only be a slight increase of power over WIiU.

If you have a large enough userbase, system sales are high enough, you have low enough manufacturing costs, and a large enough library of games with broad appeal you can keep selling a system for years after the next generation begins ... The PS3 is far behind where the PS2 was in all these areas when the previous generation began so its sales will fall off far faster than the PS2's sales did.

Unless you expect Sony to be able to reduce the price to (about) $100 by the end of 2013, and unless Sony can build up hundreds of games that are more approriate for children and new gamers, the PS3 is not going to sell well past 2013.