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archbrix on 19 September 2012
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HappySqurriel said:
Slimebeast said:

That's actually more like a drop off for the X360 you have there (the X360 will fade away much faster than the PS3 once next gen starts).

Do you realize that you put only 6 million PS3 shipped after 2013? Sony will go from producing +40 million PS2s during this gen to only 6 million PS3s during next gen? That's crazy unrealistic.

Also remember that a PS3 still costs $250 with lots of room for future price drops and lots of sales potential in untapped market segments. Meanwhile at this point in last gen (from Spring 2004 to Spring 2006), the PS2 cost only $149.

If you have a large enough userbase, system sales are high enough, you have low enough manufacturing costs, and a large enough library of games with broad appeal you can keep selling a system for years after the next generation begins ... The PS3 is far behind where the PS2 was in all these areas when the previous generation began so its sales will fall off far faster than the PS2's sales did.

Unless you expect Sony to be able to reduce the price to (about) $100 by the end of 2013, and unless Sony can build up hundreds of games that are more approriate for children and new gamers, the PS3 is not going to sell well past 2013.

Agreed.  The PS1 and the PS2 sold so well into the next gens because they were the undisputed leaders of their respected gens with no second place contender remotely close to challenge them.  The PS3 obviously won't have this advantage and with WiiU being the new popular thing on the market with a price that's not far out of range - coupled with the excitement of the new Xbox next year - I don't see the PS3 gaining big numbers after that.

The only scenario where I see PS3 reaching 100m is if Sony puts all of their focus on it for another 3-4 years and refrain from launching PS4 until 2015/16.  Frankly, I think that may be their smartest move from a financial standpoint... even if it means they don't win next gen in sales.