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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Why PS4 won't be cutting edge, and neither will Xbox3 - or Why Nintendo might win next gen

 

Is my reasoning sound?

Hellz yeah! Spot on 265 33.42%
 
I never thought of it like that.... 69 8.70%
 
So it's the mental institution next for you? 101 12.74%
 
So very, very wrong 266 33.54%
 
I'm a pussy with no opinion 88 11.10%
 
Total:789
HappySqurriel said:
Slimebeast said:
Plezbo said:
Slimebeast said:
Exchange rates have nothing to do with it. The only factor that determines how powerful PS4 and X720 are is the upper limit of power consumption of the GPUs that you can put in a console.

With that said I believe they will achieve 8 x X360, or around 2 Tflops of performance, compared to around 650 gflops in the Wii U, meaning they are 3 times as powerful as the Wii U.

3 times as powerful is not huge, but this combined with the big publishers discrimination and bias towards Nintendo will assure that the Wii U won't win next gen.

I believe Wii U will sell around 50 million lifetime while X720 and PS4 around 100 million.


This is ridiculous.  360 and PS3 won't ever come close to 100 million, and their follow ups won't sell any more than they did.  PS2 and PS1 sold so many consoles because they were easy to develop for, and had all of the games.  PS3 and 360 were tough consoles to start developing on.  It took significant investment to reach a level of graphics and online integration that was up to par with what Sony and MS were willing to license.  This will not change next gen.  Also, gaming has shifted.  You will get fewer and fewer people making impulse buys, or using their system as a DVD player like PS2, since they can play the game they want on their phone/tablet.  I would say that all 3 next gens sell around 60 million. 

PS3 will not only come close to 100 million, it will pass that number.

By end of 2012, 75 million PS3s shipped (end of 2011 was 62 mill shipped and Sony is targeting 13 mill this year)

In 2013, perhaps 11 million shipped, total becomes 86 million.

In 2014, perhaps 7 million shipped, total becomes 93 million.

In 2015, perhaps 4 million shipped, total becomes 97 million.

In 2016, and perhaps the last year of production, 3 million shipped, total becomes 100 million PS3s.

Also, Microsoft in the leaked document is projecting 100 million for the NextBox (10 years times 10 million).

And by all experts next gen will be even longer than this gen. Most likely except for Wii U who might be terminated early (5-6 years) in favor of a new Nintendo console.


End of 2012: 72 to 74 million
End of 2013: 80 to 84 million
End of 2013: 86 to 90 million
End of 2014: 90 to 94 million
End of 2015: 92 to 96 million

And that is being optimistic ...

That's actually more like a drop off for the X360 you have there (the X360 will fade away much faster than the PS3 once next gen starts).

Do you realize that you put only 6 million PS3 shipped after 2013? Sony will go from producing +40 million PS2s during this gen to only 6 million PS3s during next gen? That's crazy unrealistic.

Also remember that a PS3 still costs $250 with lots of room for future price drops and lots of sales potential in untapped market segments. Meanwhile at this point in last gen (from Spring 2004 to Spring 2006), the PS2 cost only $149.



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Crono141 said:
Slimebeast said:
Crono141 said:
Slimebeast said:
Plezbo said:
Slimebeast said:
Exchange rates have nothing to do with it. The only factor that determines how powerful PS4 and X720 are is the upper limit of power consumption of the GPUs that you can put in a console.

With that said I believe they will achieve 8 x X360, or around 2 Tflops of performance, compared to around 650 gflops in the Wii U, meaning they are 3 times as powerful as the Wii U.

3 times as powerful is not huge, but this combined with the big publishers discrimination and bias towards Nintendo will assure that the Wii U won't win next gen.

I believe Wii U will sell around 50 million lifetime while X720 and PS4 around 100 million.


This is ridiculous.  360 and PS3 won't ever come close to 100 million, and their follow ups won't sell any more than they did.  PS2 and PS1 sold so many consoles because they were easy to develop for, and had all of the games.  PS3 and 360 were tough consoles to start developing on.  It took significant investment to reach a level of graphics and online integration that was up to par with what Sony and MS were willing to license.  This will not change next gen.  Also, gaming has shifted.  You will get fewer and fewer people making impulse buys, or using their system as a DVD player like PS2, since they can play the game they want on their phone/tablet.  I would say that all 3 next gens sell around 60 million. 

PS3 will not only come close to 100 million, it will pass that number.

By end of 2012, 75 million PS3s shipped (end of 2011 was 62 mill shipped and Sony is targeting 13 mill this year)

In 2013, perhaps 11 million shipped, total becomes 86 million.

In 2014, perhaps 7 million shipped, total becomes 93 million.

In 2015, perhaps 4 million shipped, total becomes 97 million.

In 2016, and perhaps the last year of production, 3 million shipped, total becomes 100 million PS3s.

Also, Microsoft in the leaked document is projecting 100 million for the NextBox (10 years times 10 million).

And by all experts next gen will be even longer than this gen. Most likely except for Wii U who might be terminated early (5-6 years) in favor of a new Nintendo console.

You don't live in reality.  There is no chance PS3 will sell 100mil in its lifetime, unless there is no PS4.

It will, guaranteed.

You don't realize how long legs Sony consoles have.

As a comparison, in Nov 2006 at the time of the PS3 launch, lifetime shipments of the PS2 were 116 million (end of year 2006). In the 6 years since that, the PS2 has shipped another 40 million units (total lifetime PS2 shipments today are +155 million). 40 million PS2s shipped in current gen!

Compare this to my estimation of only 14 million PS3s being shipped after the release of PS4 in Nov 2013 (very likely) and you'll discover that it's a conservative estimate.

Tell me again about how the PS3 is the best selling console this generation already.

PS2 kept selling because it was the clear winner.  All the games were coming out for it.  It had no strong competitors in its price range.  It library at the time of PS3 release was probably the strongest library any console ever had, with the exception of maybe the PS1 before it, and the SNES before it.  Not to mention that the next generation consoles cost 3 to 5 times what the PS2 cost.  Of course it kept selling.  It was prohibitively expensive to jump into the next generation for 90% of people.

And we aren't talking 14 million more PS3s.  We're talking 33million more PS3s.  Just look at the chart on the vgcharts main page.  Your numbers are completely unrealistic.  PS3 has no chance of hitting 100 million.  Heck, I think even the Wii will only barely breach 100 million, at it only has 8 or so million more sales to go.

 So okay, the PS3 sales to consumers right now is 66.3 million. But it's only September 2012. I'm sure you don't question that the PS3 will sell at least another 6 million during the Autumn and Holidays, right, so that puts the PS3 total to 72 million by end of year. Only another 28 million to go.

And the PS4 is not even announced yet. Sony is targeting 13 million shipped PS3s in 2012 and most likely they'll target 11 million in 2013 or 10 million as bare minimum. That's 85 million right there (I switched to shipped numbers again, sorry ), by end of 2013, and the PS4 is not even released yet.

We've just seen the new prices for the PS3. $269 will be the cheapest PS3 in North America! Don't you realize the untapped potential from future price drops? Can't you imagine several million gamers buy a $199 PS3 and a $149 PS3 in the coming years?



What I expect to happen next gen based on rumours, leaks and currently known facts:


WiiU - 4850/4870 performance GPU.
PS4 - 7850 performance GPU.
720 - A GPU between 7850 and 7770, power-wise.

Nintendo will win the generation in sales. They are launching first , at a good price and have a well featured console. Plus, they are set to dominate Japan in both the console and handheld space.

As for PS4 and 720, too early to guess which will take second place.



AIAS said:

Don't you think nextbox may follow current-soon to be PC specs?

If they do they'll be the only cutting edge console next gen, and that might do more harm since WiiU and PS4 will be on par with each other



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

babuks said:
Since when Nintendo's WiiU is nextgen? It is late in the current gen and they got two consoles in a gen.

So having 2gb os RAM is about the same as the 512 MB PS360 has? No, WiiU is next gen. You'll find out sooner or later that PS4 will only be a slight increase of power over WIiU.



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

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kanageddaamen said:

Sony actually really needs to "pull a nintendo" and NOT focus on specs. As was pointed out, and as I have been saying for a while, they cannot afford another arms race with MS. MS will destroy them if it comes to a loss leading model.

Sony really needs to make a profit on their consoles, or at least break even. MS CAN afford to take a loss. So sony will need to:

Delay a year to let manufacturing costs come down

or

Make the system attractive with something other than horsepower and first party titles (vita integration is NOT the answer)

They need a "gimmick" like the wii, wii u and Kinect. Something not available to other consoles.

Or they need a ton of 3rd party exclusive, which just isn't going to happen.

Microsoft will be the hands down leader of graphics this coming gen, and unless Sony delays quite a while the disparity between PS4 and WiiU will probably be easily surmountable for porting (though I think it will be anyway)

My thoughts exactly!!



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

dharh said:
PS4 doesn't _need_ the same leap that the PS3 was over the PS2. The PS3 was high power, low memory, blu-ray, and before its time. PS4 can merely be a mid size bump in CPU/GPU performance, double or quad more memory, same blu-ray, and pretty much everything else the PS3 already has and it would be a perfectly legit, more powerful than the WiiU, product. I daresay they could do it and it could be only $100 more expensive than the current super slim PS3.

I'm in an agreement with you. Sony doesn't really need to realise a cutting edge console this time around.



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

Gamerace said:
This is flawed thinking in my opinion.

Yes I agree with the OP in terms of graphics only. But the next generation will not be about graphics. Even if MS/Sony produced the highest end console possible the graphical difference to the WiiU would not be appreciated by the casual observer.

However, power can be - and must be - used for so much more than mere graphics.

First off, there's the ability to process. Look at Dead Rising on 360 compared to Wii. Hundreds of concurrent zombies compared to a dozen. Similarly the more powerful PS4/720 would be able to produce effects WiiU can't.

Secondly look at what WiiU is doing with it's process power - it's splitting it between 2 screens. What could MS/Sony do with more powerful machines? We know about Smart glass, so MS could use that to enable multiple screens similar to WiiU for local multiplayer but not limited to two. Sony could copy WiiU's design but allow all players to have their own touch screen and own images.

Kinect 2 will be far more processor intensive than Kinect and far more precise. We've seen lots of interesting patents from MS recently, all of which will require a lot of power to drive. In the end though it allows gameplay not possible on other systems, and that's key.

Apple devices are growing in power each year. iPhone 5 is already roughly equal to Vita, next year they could match current gen systems (and maybe WiiU) and only go up from there. Apple / Android devices are now the device of choice for casual players. So home consoles need to provide an experience they can't possibly match to attract that crowd back. This is my beef with WiiU. Nintendo went the wrong f---ing way. They are trying to outdo Apple and will get crushed. MS seems to have the right idea, and Valve looks to be following suit (no pun intented) with wearable tech. Power is needed for this. I fully expect MS to produce a very powerful machine but subsidize the price with it's 2-3 year contracts so it's still mass market affordable.

For MS this all makes sense. PCs are dying (sorry PC gamers). MS sees a day where we all wear our PCs on us 24/7 and are working towards that (and owning it). Whatever they spend, and even lose, on 720 will be worth it if it still helps subsidize the tech development of the future. If it helps put them in pole position in tomorrows tech.

Sony also needs and wants that, but so far, has shown an incredible lack of vision beyond 'bigger, better, more powerful'. The OP is right. If they follow that mantra with PS4 they will likely write their own death sentence. They need to truly distinquish themselves from the competition and be a device everyone must have. Or, just embed PS3 into every Smart TV, phone, etc they make, using the PS brand as added value. Gaikai will allow that even for lower tech devices as long as they have wifi. In this case, PS and WiiU would share comparible stats and have the same games but MS would get upports of those games. An upport may not be nearly as impressive as a game designed for the superior tech, but it'll still be superior and will win a larger portion of the core away from Sony.

However, it's too early to determine Sony's strategy but all other things being equal, they'll do what they've always done - increase power. As for MS, I fully expect them to launch a much more powerful machine, and utilize that power in all sorts of interesting ways WiiU (and possibly PS4) can't match.

In a way you're actually re-affirming my point in the OP. Sony can't do "bigger, better, more powerful" - and I did say that unique features will be what sell the consoles (just like you said about PS4 in your last paragraph). And MS might go the way that you're describing above, but you have to remember that they'll be the only ones offering that service.

You said "We've seen lots of interesting patents from MS recently, all of which will require a lot of power to drive. In the end though it allows gameplay not possible on other systems, and that's key." Now, if this holds true they'll be in a similar position as Wii was this past gen. A unique way to play games, but with out 3rd party support. And that's the fault in your reasoning; you do not consider 3rd party developers. With development costs being high as it is, do you really see 3rd party devs supporting ONE console (with probably MUCH higher dev costs) or TWO consoles (WiiStation) for less cost?

They might win the gen this way, but they're gonna loos hell of a lot of money on it. No 3rd party support means no core gamers, meaning less sold SW in relation to HW, meaning they'll have to make money on subscriptions.



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

rudyrsr8 said:

Thank you for a new thought out perspective that doesn't sound like a pre-teen rambling. :)

haha that's actually a lot nicer compliment than it sounds :D thx!



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

Slimebeast said:
Crono141 said:
Slimebeast said:
Crono141 said:
Slimebeast said:
Plezbo said:
Slimebeast said:
Exchange rates have nothing to do with it. The only factor that determines how powerful PS4 and X720 are is the upper limit of power consumption of the GPUs that you can put in a console.

With that said I believe they will achieve 8 x X360, or around 2 Tflops of performance, compared to around 650 gflops in the Wii U, meaning they are 3 times as powerful as the Wii U.

3 times as powerful is not huge, but this combined with the big publishers discrimination and bias towards Nintendo will assure that the Wii U won't win next gen.

I believe Wii U will sell around 50 million lifetime while X720 and PS4 around 100 million.


This is ridiculous.  360 and PS3 won't ever come close to 100 million, and their follow ups won't sell any more than they did.  PS2 and PS1 sold so many consoles because they were easy to develop for, and had all of the games.  PS3 and 360 were tough consoles to start developing on.  It took significant investment to reach a level of graphics and online integration that was up to par with what Sony and MS were willing to license.  This will not change next gen.  Also, gaming has shifted.  You will get fewer and fewer people making impulse buys, or using their system as a DVD player like PS2, since they can play the game they want on their phone/tablet.  I would say that all 3 next gens sell around 60 million. 

PS3 will not only come close to 100 million, it will pass that number.

By end of 2012, 75 million PS3s shipped (end of 2011 was 62 mill shipped and Sony is targeting 13 mill this year)

In 2013, perhaps 11 million shipped, total becomes 86 million.

In 2014, perhaps 7 million shipped, total becomes 93 million.

In 2015, perhaps 4 million shipped, total becomes 97 million.

In 2016, and perhaps the last year of production, 3 million shipped, total becomes 100 million PS3s.

Also, Microsoft in the leaked document is projecting 100 million for the NextBox (10 years times 10 million).

And by all experts next gen will be even longer than this gen. Most likely except for Wii U who might be terminated early (5-6 years) in favor of a new Nintendo console.

You don't live in reality.  There is no chance PS3 will sell 100mil in its lifetime, unless there is no PS4.

It will, guaranteed.

You don't realize how long legs Sony consoles have.

As a comparison, in Nov 2006 at the time of the PS3 launch, lifetime shipments of the PS2 were 116 million (end of year 2006). In the 6 years since that, the PS2 has shipped another 40 million units (total lifetime PS2 shipments today are +155 million). 40 million PS2s shipped in current gen!

Compare this to my estimation of only 14 million PS3s being shipped after the release of PS4 in Nov 2013 (very likely) and you'll discover that it's a conservative estimate.

Tell me again about how the PS3 is the best selling console this generation already.

PS2 kept selling because it was the clear winner.  All the games were coming out for it.  It had no strong competitors in its price range.  It library at the time of PS3 release was probably the strongest library any console ever had, with the exception of maybe the PS1 before it, and the SNES before it.  Not to mention that the next generation consoles cost 3 to 5 times what the PS2 cost.  Of course it kept selling.  It was prohibitively expensive to jump into the next generation for 90% of people.

And we aren't talking 14 million more PS3s.  We're talking 33million more PS3s.  Just look at the chart on the vgcharts main page.  Your numbers are completely unrealistic.  PS3 has no chance of hitting 100 million.  Heck, I think even the Wii will only barely breach 100 million, at it only has 8 or so million more sales to go.

 So okay, the PS3 sales to consumers right now is 66.3 million. But it's only September 2012. I'm sure you don't question that the PS3 will sell at least another 6 million during the Autumn and Holidays, right, so that puts the PS3 total to 72 million by end of year. Only another 28 million to go.

And the PS4 is not even announced yet. Sony is targeting 13 million shipped PS3s in 2012 and most likely they'll target 11 million in 2013 or 10 million as bare minimum. That's 85 million right there (I switched to shipped numbers again, sorry ), by end of 2013, and the PS4 is not even released yet.

We've just seen the new prices for the PS3. $269 will be the cheapest PS3 in North America! Don't you realize the untapped potential from future price drops? Can't you imagine several million gamers buy a $199 PS3 and a $149 PS3 in the coming years?

Except there's already an equivalently specced machine that sits at that price point and below, that gets all the same games minus Sony's first party.  The only people who are going to buy a PS3 going forward are the fanboy kids who have to have their parents buy it for them.   The next gen is starting, and can start at the exact same price point as LAST GEN PS3.  PS3 will not hit those sales numbers.  There are better consoles people can spend the exact same amount of money on.  And blu-ray players are cheap now.



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