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Slimebeast on 19 September 2012
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HappySqurriel said:
Slimebeast said:
Plezbo said:
Slimebeast said:
Exchange rates have nothing to do with it. The only factor that determines how powerful PS4 and X720 are is the upper limit of power consumption of the GPUs that you can put in a console.

With that said I believe they will achieve 8 x X360, or around 2 Tflops of performance, compared to around 650 gflops in the Wii U, meaning they are 3 times as powerful as the Wii U.

3 times as powerful is not huge, but this combined with the big publishers discrimination and bias towards Nintendo will assure that the Wii U won't win next gen.

I believe Wii U will sell around 50 million lifetime while X720 and PS4 around 100 million.


This is ridiculous.  360 and PS3 won't ever come close to 100 million, and their follow ups won't sell any more than they did.  PS2 and PS1 sold so many consoles because they were easy to develop for, and had all of the games.  PS3 and 360 were tough consoles to start developing on.  It took significant investment to reach a level of graphics and online integration that was up to par with what Sony and MS were willing to license.  This will not change next gen.  Also, gaming has shifted.  You will get fewer and fewer people making impulse buys, or using their system as a DVD player like PS2, since they can play the game they want on their phone/tablet.  I would say that all 3 next gens sell around 60 million. 

PS3 will not only come close to 100 million, it will pass that number.

By end of 2012, 75 million PS3s shipped (end of 2011 was 62 mill shipped and Sony is targeting 13 mill this year)

In 2013, perhaps 11 million shipped, total becomes 86 million.

In 2014, perhaps 7 million shipped, total becomes 93 million.

In 2015, perhaps 4 million shipped, total becomes 97 million.

In 2016, and perhaps the last year of production, 3 million shipped, total becomes 100 million PS3s.

Also, Microsoft in the leaked document is projecting 100 million for the NextBox (10 years times 10 million).

And by all experts next gen will be even longer than this gen. Most likely except for Wii U who might be terminated early (5-6 years) in favor of a new Nintendo console.


End of 2012: 72 to 74 million
End of 2013: 80 to 84 million
End of 2013: 86 to 90 million
End of 2014: 90 to 94 million
End of 2015: 92 to 96 million

And that is being optimistic ...

That's actually more like a drop off for the X360 you have there (the X360 will fade away much faster than the PS3 once next gen starts).

Do you realize that you put only 6 million PS3 shipped after 2013? Sony will go from producing +40 million PS2s during this gen to only 6 million PS3s during next gen? That's crazy unrealistic.

Also remember that a PS3 still costs $250 with lots of room for future price drops and lots of sales potential in untapped market segments. Meanwhile at this point in last gen (from Spring 2004 to Spring 2006), the PS2 cost only $149.