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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Why PS4 won't be cutting edge, and neither will Xbox3 - or Why Nintendo might win next gen

 

Is my reasoning sound?

Hellz yeah! Spot on 265 33.42%
 
I never thought of it like that.... 69 8.70%
 
So it's the mental institution next for you? 101 12.74%
 
So very, very wrong 266 33.54%
 
I'm a pussy with no opinion 88 11.10%
 
Total:789
Slimebeast on 19 September 2012
Plezbo said:
Slimebeast said:
Exchange rates have nothing to do with it. The only factor that determines how powerful PS4 and X720 are is the upper limit of power consumption of the GPUs that you can put in a console.

With that said I believe they will achieve 8 x X360, or around 2 Tflops of performance, compared to around 650 gflops in the Wii U, meaning they are 3 times as powerful as the Wii U.

3 times as powerful is not huge, but this combined with the big publishers discrimination and bias towards Nintendo will assure that the Wii U won't win next gen.

I believe Wii U will sell around 50 million lifetime while X720 and PS4 around 100 million.


This is ridiculous.  360 and PS3 won't ever come close to 100 million, and their follow ups won't sell any more than they did.  PS2 and PS1 sold so many consoles because they were easy to develop for, and had all of the games.  PS3 and 360 were tough consoles to start developing on.  It took significant investment to reach a level of graphics and online integration that was up to par with what Sony and MS were willing to license.  This will not change next gen.  Also, gaming has shifted.  You will get fewer and fewer people making impulse buys, or using their system as a DVD player like PS2, since they can play the game they want on their phone/tablet.  I would say that all 3 next gens sell around 60 million. 

PS3 will not only come close to 100 million, it will pass that number.

By end of 2012, 75 million PS3s shipped (end of 2011 was 62 mill shipped and Sony is targeting 13 mill this year)

In 2013, perhaps 11 million shipped, total becomes 86 million.

In 2014, perhaps 7 million shipped, total becomes 93 million.

In 2015, perhaps 4 million shipped, total becomes 97 million.

In 2016, and perhaps the last year of production, 3 million shipped, total becomes 100 million PS3s.

Also, Microsoft in the leaked document is projecting 100 million for the NextBox (10 years times 10 million).

And by all experts next gen will be even longer than this gen. Most likely except for Wii U who might be terminated early (5-6 years) in favor of a new Nintendo console.



Around the Network
Crono141 on 19 September 2012
Slimebeast said:
Plezbo said:
Slimebeast said:
Exchange rates have nothing to do with it. The only factor that determines how powerful PS4 and X720 are is the upper limit of power consumption of the GPUs that you can put in a console.

With that said I believe they will achieve 8 x X360, or around 2 Tflops of performance, compared to around 650 gflops in the Wii U, meaning they are 3 times as powerful as the Wii U.

3 times as powerful is not huge, but this combined with the big publishers discrimination and bias towards Nintendo will assure that the Wii U won't win next gen.

I believe Wii U will sell around 50 million lifetime while X720 and PS4 around 100 million.


This is ridiculous.  360 and PS3 won't ever come close to 100 million, and their follow ups won't sell any more than they did.  PS2 and PS1 sold so many consoles because they were easy to develop for, and had all of the games.  PS3 and 360 were tough consoles to start developing on.  It took significant investment to reach a level of graphics and online integration that was up to par with what Sony and MS were willing to license.  This will not change next gen.  Also, gaming has shifted.  You will get fewer and fewer people making impulse buys, or using their system as a DVD player like PS2, since they can play the game they want on their phone/tablet.  I would say that all 3 next gens sell around 60 million. 

PS3 will not only come close to 100 million, it will pass that number.

By end of 2012, 75 million PS3s shipped (end of 2011 was 62 mill shipped and Sony is targeting 13 mill this year)

In 2013, perhaps 11 million shipped, total becomes 86 million.

In 2014, perhaps 7 million shipped, total becomes 93 million.

In 2015, perhaps 4 million shipped, total becomes 97 million.

In 2016, and perhaps the last year of production, 3 million shipped, total becomes 100 million PS3s.

Also, Microsoft in the leaked document is projecting 100 million for the NextBox (10 years times 10 million).

And by all experts next gen will be even longer than this gen. Most likely except for Wii U who might be terminated early (5-6 years) in favor of a new Nintendo console.

You don't live in reality.  There is no chance PS3 will sell 100mil in its lifetime, unless there is no PS4.



Check out my Youtube Let's Play channel here.

SvennoJ on 19 September 2012

You're forgetting that Sony won't include a tablet controller with their new system, plus it's coming 2 years after the WiiU. If the WiiU already makes a profit on day 1 that will leave plenty of room for Sony to make a more powerful console.



Crono141 on 19 September 2012
PDF said:
Sony is company of choice. In three generations they have made me a very happy customer. They in my opinion deliver the best product, with the best exclusive content. I am about as loyal as they get but I will jump ship if they don't deliver.( as sad as it would make me)

If I am willing to jump, so will others. In your dream scenario of MS the only one going for powerful specs, I would wager thats will the Core gaming audience will go. They alone will be able to justify games being made for their platform, they will also suck up tons of 3rd party exclusives that cant go anywhere else. MS wins landslide. I hope your wrong though.


Like the 3DO won in a landslide vs SNES and Genesis, right?



Check out my Youtube Let's Play channel here.

FrancisNobleman on 19 September 2012
Slimebeast said:
Plezbo said:
Slimebeast said:
Exchange rates have nothing to do with it. The only factor that determines how powerful PS4 and X720 are is the upper limit of power consumption of the GPUs that you can put in a console.

With that said I believe they will achieve 8 x X360, or around 2 Tflops of performance, compared to around 650 gflops in the Wii U, meaning they are 3 times as powerful as the Wii U.

3 times as powerful is not huge, but this combined with the big publishers discrimination and bias towards Nintendo will assure that the Wii U won't win next gen.

I believe Wii U will sell around 50 million lifetime while X720 and PS4 around 100 million.


This is ridiculous.  360 and PS3 won't ever come close to 100 million, and their follow ups won't sell any more than they did.  PS2 and PS1 sold so many consoles because they were easy to develop for, and had all of the games.  PS3 and 360 were tough consoles to start developing on.  It took significant investment to reach a level of graphics and online integration that was up to par with what Sony and MS were willing to license.  This will not change next gen.  Also, gaming has shifted.  You will get fewer and fewer people making impulse buys, or using their system as a DVD player like PS2, since they can play the game they want on their phone/tablet.  I would say that all 3 next gens sell around 60 million. 

PS3 will not only come close to 100 million, it will pass that number.

By end of 2012, 75 million PS3s shipped (end of 2011 was 62 mill shipped and Sony is targeting 13 mill this year)

In 2013, perhaps 11 million shipped, total becomes 86 million.

In 2014, perhaps 7 million shipped, total becomes 93 million.

In 2015, perhaps 4 million shipped, total becomes 97 million.

In 2016, and perhaps the last year of production, 3 million shipped, total becomes 100 million PS3s.

Also, Microsoft in the leaked document is projecting 100 million for the NextBox (10 years times 10 million).

And by all experts next gen will be even longer than this gen. Most likely except for Wii U who might be terminated early (5-6 years) in favor of a new Nintendo console.



Around the Network
Slimebeast on 19 September 2012
Crono141 said:
Slimebeast said:
Plezbo said:
Slimebeast said:
Exchange rates have nothing to do with it. The only factor that determines how powerful PS4 and X720 are is the upper limit of power consumption of the GPUs that you can put in a console.

With that said I believe they will achieve 8 x X360, or around 2 Tflops of performance, compared to around 650 gflops in the Wii U, meaning they are 3 times as powerful as the Wii U.

3 times as powerful is not huge, but this combined with the big publishers discrimination and bias towards Nintendo will assure that the Wii U won't win next gen.

I believe Wii U will sell around 50 million lifetime while X720 and PS4 around 100 million.


This is ridiculous.  360 and PS3 won't ever come close to 100 million, and their follow ups won't sell any more than they did.  PS2 and PS1 sold so many consoles because they were easy to develop for, and had all of the games.  PS3 and 360 were tough consoles to start developing on.  It took significant investment to reach a level of graphics and online integration that was up to par with what Sony and MS were willing to license.  This will not change next gen.  Also, gaming has shifted.  You will get fewer and fewer people making impulse buys, or using their system as a DVD player like PS2, since they can play the game they want on their phone/tablet.  I would say that all 3 next gens sell around 60 million. 

PS3 will not only come close to 100 million, it will pass that number.

By end of 2012, 75 million PS3s shipped (end of 2011 was 62 mill shipped and Sony is targeting 13 mill this year)

In 2013, perhaps 11 million shipped, total becomes 86 million.

In 2014, perhaps 7 million shipped, total becomes 93 million.

In 2015, perhaps 4 million shipped, total becomes 97 million.

In 2016, and perhaps the last year of production, 3 million shipped, total becomes 100 million PS3s.

Also, Microsoft in the leaked document is projecting 100 million for the NextBox (10 years times 10 million).

And by all experts next gen will be even longer than this gen. Most likely except for Wii U who might be terminated early (5-6 years) in favor of a new Nintendo console.

You don't live in reality.  There is no chance PS3 will sell 100mil in its lifetime, unless there is no PS4.

It will, guaranteed.

You don't realize how long legs Sony consoles have.

As a comparison, in Nov 2006 at the time of the PS3 launch, lifetime shipments of the PS2 were 116 million (end of year 2006). In the 6 years since that, the PS2 has shipped another 40 million units (total lifetime PS2 shipments today are +155 million). 40 million PS2s shipped in current gen!

Compare this to my estimation of only 14 million PS3s being shipped after the release of PS4 in Nov 2013 (very likely) and you'll discover that it's a conservative estimate.



Degausser on 19 September 2012
Crono141 said:
Slimebeast said:
Plezbo said:
Slimebeast said:
Exchange rates have nothing to do with it. The only factor that determines how powerful PS4 and X720 are is the upper limit of power consumption of the GPUs that you can put in a console.

With that said I believe they will achieve 8 x X360, or around 2 Tflops of performance, compared to around 650 gflops in the Wii U, meaning they are 3 times as powerful as the Wii U.

3 times as powerful is not huge, but this combined with the big publishers discrimination and bias towards Nintendo will assure that the Wii U won't win next gen.

I believe Wii U will sell around 50 million lifetime while X720 and PS4 around 100 million.


This is ridiculous.  360 and PS3 won't ever come close to 100 million, and their follow ups won't sell any more than they did.  PS2 and PS1 sold so many consoles because they were easy to develop for, and had all of the games.  PS3 and 360 were tough consoles to start developing on.  It took significant investment to reach a level of graphics and online integration that was up to par with what Sony and MS were willing to license.  This will not change next gen.  Also, gaming has shifted.  You will get fewer and fewer people making impulse buys, or using their system as a DVD player like PS2, since they can play the game they want on their phone/tablet.  I would say that all 3 next gens sell around 60 million. 

PS3 will not only come close to 100 million, it will pass that number.

By end of 2012, 75 million PS3s shipped (end of 2011 was 62 mill shipped and Sony is targeting 13 mill this year)

In 2013, perhaps 11 million shipped, total becomes 86 million.

In 2014, perhaps 7 million shipped, total becomes 93 million.

In 2015, perhaps 4 million shipped, total becomes 97 million.

In 2016, and perhaps the last year of production, 3 million shipped, total becomes 100 million PS3s.

Also, Microsoft in the leaked document is projecting 100 million for the NextBox (10 years times 10 million).

And by all experts next gen will be even longer than this gen. Most likely except for Wii U who might be terminated early (5-6 years) in favor of a new Nintendo console.

You don't live in reality.  There is no chance PS3 will sell 100mil in its lifetime, unless there is no PS4.

The ps2 kept going for a long time - the thing had large numbers of shipments in the developing markets (Brazil, India, Asia etc) long after the PS3 came out here. Some of those economies are further developed now and Sony continues to be the only first party who bother to try sell in those markets. Given the long life they could give the system I think 100m is attainable and I'd bet on it going further then that. It still remains to be seen how relevent the console will continue in the USA / Europe too, given that it hasn't gone sub $250 yet I'd imagine there are still plenty of units left to sell in the main territories too.

 I'd bet more on the safe side and say 90 something million, but I think people really underestimate how well Sony is positioned to sell in the developing markets and just how fast those economies are developing.



HappySqurriel on 19 September 2012
Slimebeast said:
Plezbo said:
Slimebeast said:
Exchange rates have nothing to do with it. The only factor that determines how powerful PS4 and X720 are is the upper limit of power consumption of the GPUs that you can put in a console.

With that said I believe they will achieve 8 x X360, or around 2 Tflops of performance, compared to around 650 gflops in the Wii U, meaning they are 3 times as powerful as the Wii U.

3 times as powerful is not huge, but this combined with the big publishers discrimination and bias towards Nintendo will assure that the Wii U won't win next gen.

I believe Wii U will sell around 50 million lifetime while X720 and PS4 around 100 million.


This is ridiculous.  360 and PS3 won't ever come close to 100 million, and their follow ups won't sell any more than they did.  PS2 and PS1 sold so many consoles because they were easy to develop for, and had all of the games.  PS3 and 360 were tough consoles to start developing on.  It took significant investment to reach a level of graphics and online integration that was up to par with what Sony and MS were willing to license.  This will not change next gen.  Also, gaming has shifted.  You will get fewer and fewer people making impulse buys, or using their system as a DVD player like PS2, since they can play the game they want on their phone/tablet.  I would say that all 3 next gens sell around 60 million. 

PS3 will not only come close to 100 million, it will pass that number.

By end of 2012, 75 million PS3s shipped (end of 2011 was 62 mill shipped and Sony is targeting 13 mill this year)

In 2013, perhaps 11 million shipped, total becomes 86 million.

In 2014, perhaps 7 million shipped, total becomes 93 million.

In 2015, perhaps 4 million shipped, total becomes 97 million.

In 2016, and perhaps the last year of production, 3 million shipped, total becomes 100 million PS3s.

Also, Microsoft in the leaked document is projecting 100 million for the NextBox (10 years times 10 million).

And by all experts next gen will be even longer than this gen. Most likely except for Wii U who might be terminated early (5-6 years) in favor of a new Nintendo console.


End of 2012: 72 to 74 million
End of 2013: 80 to 84 million
End of 2013: 86 to 90 million
End of 2014: 90 to 94 million
End of 2015: 92 to 96 million

And that is being optimistic ...



babuks on 19 September 2012

Since when Nintendo's WiiU is nextgen? It is late in the current gen and they got two consoles in a gen.



Crono141 on 19 September 2012
Slimebeast said:
Crono141 said:
Slimebeast said:
Plezbo said:
Slimebeast said:
Exchange rates have nothing to do with it. The only factor that determines how powerful PS4 and X720 are is the upper limit of power consumption of the GPUs that you can put in a console.

With that said I believe they will achieve 8 x X360, or around 2 Tflops of performance, compared to around 650 gflops in the Wii U, meaning they are 3 times as powerful as the Wii U.

3 times as powerful is not huge, but this combined with the big publishers discrimination and bias towards Nintendo will assure that the Wii U won't win next gen.

I believe Wii U will sell around 50 million lifetime while X720 and PS4 around 100 million.


This is ridiculous.  360 and PS3 won't ever come close to 100 million, and their follow ups won't sell any more than they did.  PS2 and PS1 sold so many consoles because they were easy to develop for, and had all of the games.  PS3 and 360 were tough consoles to start developing on.  It took significant investment to reach a level of graphics and online integration that was up to par with what Sony and MS were willing to license.  This will not change next gen.  Also, gaming has shifted.  You will get fewer and fewer people making impulse buys, or using their system as a DVD player like PS2, since they can play the game they want on their phone/tablet.  I would say that all 3 next gens sell around 60 million. 

PS3 will not only come close to 100 million, it will pass that number.

By end of 2012, 75 million PS3s shipped (end of 2011 was 62 mill shipped and Sony is targeting 13 mill this year)

In 2013, perhaps 11 million shipped, total becomes 86 million.

In 2014, perhaps 7 million shipped, total becomes 93 million.

In 2015, perhaps 4 million shipped, total becomes 97 million.

In 2016, and perhaps the last year of production, 3 million shipped, total becomes 100 million PS3s.

Also, Microsoft in the leaked document is projecting 100 million for the NextBox (10 years times 10 million).

And by all experts next gen will be even longer than this gen. Most likely except for Wii U who might be terminated early (5-6 years) in favor of a new Nintendo console.

You don't live in reality.  There is no chance PS3 will sell 100mil in its lifetime, unless there is no PS4.

It will, guaranteed.

You don't realize how long legs Sony consoles have.

As a comparison, in Nov 2006 at the time of the PS3 launch, lifetime shipments of the PS2 were 116 million (end of year 2006). In the 6 years since that, the PS2 has shipped another 40 million units (total lifetime PS2 shipments today are +155 million). 40 million PS2s shipped in current gen!

Compare this to my estimation of only 14 million PS3s being shipped after the release of PS4 in Nov 2013 (very likely) and you'll discover that it's a conservative estimate.

Tell me again about how the PS3 is the best selling console this generation already.

PS2 kept selling because it was the clear winner.  All the games were coming out for it.  It had no strong competitors in its price range.  It library at the time of PS3 release was probably the strongest library any console ever had, with the exception of maybe the PS1 before it, and the SNES before it.  Not to mention that the next generation consoles cost 3 to 5 times what the PS2 cost.  Of course it kept selling.  It was prohibitively expensive to jump into the next generation for 90% of people.

And we aren't talking 14 million more PS3s.  We're talking 33million more PS3s.  Just look at the chart on the vgcharts main page.  Your numbers are completely unrealistic.  PS3 has no chance of hitting 100 million.  Heck, I think even the Wii will only barely breach 100 million, at it only has 8 or so million more sales to go.



Check out my Youtube Let's Play channel here.