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Degausser on 19 September 2012
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Crono141 said:
Slimebeast said:
Plezbo said:
Slimebeast said:
Exchange rates have nothing to do with it. The only factor that determines how powerful PS4 and X720 are is the upper limit of power consumption of the GPUs that you can put in a console.

With that said I believe they will achieve 8 x X360, or around 2 Tflops of performance, compared to around 650 gflops in the Wii U, meaning they are 3 times as powerful as the Wii U.

3 times as powerful is not huge, but this combined with the big publishers discrimination and bias towards Nintendo will assure that the Wii U won't win next gen.

I believe Wii U will sell around 50 million lifetime while X720 and PS4 around 100 million.


This is ridiculous.  360 and PS3 won't ever come close to 100 million, and their follow ups won't sell any more than they did.  PS2 and PS1 sold so many consoles because they were easy to develop for, and had all of the games.  PS3 and 360 were tough consoles to start developing on.  It took significant investment to reach a level of graphics and online integration that was up to par with what Sony and MS were willing to license.  This will not change next gen.  Also, gaming has shifted.  You will get fewer and fewer people making impulse buys, or using their system as a DVD player like PS2, since they can play the game they want on their phone/tablet.  I would say that all 3 next gens sell around 60 million. 

PS3 will not only come close to 100 million, it will pass that number.

By end of 2012, 75 million PS3s shipped (end of 2011 was 62 mill shipped and Sony is targeting 13 mill this year)

In 2013, perhaps 11 million shipped, total becomes 86 million.

In 2014, perhaps 7 million shipped, total becomes 93 million.

In 2015, perhaps 4 million shipped, total becomes 97 million.

In 2016, and perhaps the last year of production, 3 million shipped, total becomes 100 million PS3s.

Also, Microsoft in the leaked document is projecting 100 million for the NextBox (10 years times 10 million).

And by all experts next gen will be even longer than this gen. Most likely except for Wii U who might be terminated early (5-6 years) in favor of a new Nintendo console.

You don't live in reality.  There is no chance PS3 will sell 100mil in its lifetime, unless there is no PS4.

The ps2 kept going for a long time - the thing had large numbers of shipments in the developing markets (Brazil, India, Asia etc) long after the PS3 came out here. Some of those economies are further developed now and Sony continues to be the only first party who bother to try sell in those markets. Given the long life they could give the system I think 100m is attainable and I'd bet on it going further then that. It still remains to be seen how relevent the console will continue in the USA / Europe too, given that it hasn't gone sub $250 yet I'd imagine there are still plenty of units left to sell in the main territories too.

 I'd bet more on the safe side and say 90 something million, but I think people really underestimate how well Sony is positioned to sell in the developing markets and just how fast those economies are developing.