Crono141 said:
Slimebeast said:
Crono141 said:
Slimebeast said:
Plezbo said:
Slimebeast said:
Exchange rates have nothing to do with it. The only factor that determines how powerful PS4 and X720 are is the upper limit of power consumption of the GPUs that you can put in a console.
With that said I believe they will achieve 8 x X360, or around 2 Tflops of performance, compared to around 650 gflops in the Wii U, meaning they are 3 times as powerful as the Wii U.
3 times as powerful is not huge, but this combined with the big publishers discrimination and bias towards Nintendo will assure that the Wii U won't win next gen.
I believe Wii U will sell around 50 million lifetime while X720 and PS4 around 100 million. |
This is ridiculous. 360 and PS3 won't ever come close to 100 million, and their follow ups won't sell any more than they did. PS2 and PS1 sold so many consoles because they were easy to develop for, and had all of the games. PS3 and 360 were tough consoles to start developing on. It took significant investment to reach a level of graphics and online integration that was up to par with what Sony and MS were willing to license. This will not change next gen. Also, gaming has shifted. You will get fewer and fewer people making impulse buys, or using their system as a DVD player like PS2, since they can play the game they want on their phone/tablet. I would say that all 3 next gens sell around 60 million.
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PS3 will not only come close to 100 million, it will pass that number.
By end of 2012, 75 million PS3s shipped (end of 2011 was 62 mill shipped and Sony is targeting 13 mill this year)
In 2013, perhaps 11 million shipped, total becomes 86 million.
In 2014, perhaps 7 million shipped, total becomes 93 million.
In 2015, perhaps 4 million shipped, total becomes 97 million.
In 2016, and perhaps the last year of production, 3 million shipped, total becomes 100 million PS3s.
Also, Microsoft in the leaked document is projecting 100 million for the NextBox (10 years times 10 million).
And by all experts next gen will be even longer than this gen. Most likely except for Wii U who might be terminated early (5-6 years) in favor of a new Nintendo console.
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You don't live in reality. There is no chance PS3 will sell 100mil in its lifetime, unless there is no PS4.
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It will, guaranteed.
You don't realize how long legs Sony consoles have.
As a comparison, in Nov 2006 at the time of the PS3 launch, lifetime shipments of the PS2 were 116 million (end of year 2006). In the 6 years since that, the PS2 has shipped another 40 million units (total lifetime PS2 shipments today are +155 million). 40 million PS2s shipped in current gen!
Compare this to my estimation of only 14 million PS3s being shipped after the release of PS4 in Nov 2013 (very likely) and you'll discover that it's a conservative estimate.
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Tell me again about how the PS3 is the best selling console this generation already.
PS2 kept selling because it was the clear winner. All the games were coming out for it. It had no strong competitors in its price range. It library at the time of PS3 release was probably the strongest library any console ever had, with the exception of maybe the PS1 before it, and the SNES before it. Not to mention that the next generation consoles cost 3 to 5 times what the PS2 cost. Of course it kept selling. It was prohibitively expensive to jump into the next generation for 90% of people.
And we aren't talking 14 million more PS3s. We're talking 33million more PS3s. Just look at the chart on the vgcharts main page. Your numbers are completely unrealistic. PS3 has no chance of hitting 100 million. Heck, I think even the Wii will only barely breach 100 million, at it only has 8 or so million more sales to go.
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So okay, the PS3 sales to consumers right now is 66.3 million. But it's only September 2012. I'm sure you don't question that the PS3 will sell at least another 6 million during the Autumn and Holidays, right, so that puts the PS3 total to 72 million by end of year. Only another 28 million to go.
And the PS4 is not even announced yet. Sony is targeting 13 million shipped PS3s in 2012 and most likely they'll target 11 million in 2013 or 10 million as bare minimum. That's 85 million right there (I switched to shipped numbers again, sorry 
), by end of 2013, and the PS4 is not even released yet.
We've just seen the new prices for the PS3. $269 will be the cheapest PS3 in North America! Don't you realize the untapped potential from future price drops? Can't you imagine several million gamers buy a $199 PS3 and a $149 PS3 in the coming years?
