Why PS4 won't be cutting edge, and neither will Xbox3 - or Why Nintendo might win next gen

[DanneSandin]

Gamerace said:
This is flawed thinking in my opinion.

Yes I agree with the OP in terms of graphics only. But the next generation will not be about graphics. Even if MS/Sony produced the highest end console possible the graphical difference to the WiiU would not be appreciated by the casual observer.

However, power can be - and must be - used for so much more than mere graphics.

First off, there's the ability to process. Look at Dead Rising on 360 compared to Wii. Hundreds of concurrent zombies compared to a dozen. Similarly the more powerful PS4/720 would be able to produce effects WiiU can't.

Secondly look at what WiiU is doing with it's process power - it's splitting it between 2 screens. What could MS/Sony do with more powerful machines? We know about Smart glass, so MS could use that to enable multiple screens similar to WiiU for local multiplayer but not limited to two. Sony could copy WiiU's design but allow all players to have their own touch screen and own images.

Kinect 2 will be far more processor intensive than Kinect and far more precise. We've seen lots of interesting patents from MS recently, all of which will require a lot of power to drive. In the end though it allows gameplay not possible on other systems, and that's key.

Apple devices are growing in power each year. iPhone 5 is already roughly equal to Vita, next year they could match current gen systems (and maybe WiiU) and only go up from there. Apple / Android devices are now the device of choice for casual players. So home consoles need to provide an experience they can't possibly match to attract that crowd back. This is my beef with WiiU. Nintendo went the wrong f---ing way. They are trying to outdo Apple and will get crushed. MS seems to have the right idea, and Valve looks to be following suit (no pun intented) with wearable tech. Power is needed for this. I fully expect MS to produce a very powerful machine but subsidize the price with it's 2-3 year contracts so it's still mass market affordable.

For MS this all makes sense. PCs are dying (sorry PC gamers). MS sees a day where we all wear our PCs on us 24/7 and are working towards that (and owning it). Whatever they spend, and even lose, on 720 will be worth it if it still helps subsidize the tech development of the future. If it helps put them in pole position in tomorrows tech.

Sony also needs and wants that, but so far, has shown an incredible lack of vision beyond 'bigger, better, more powerful'. The OP is right. If they follow that mantra with PS4 they will likely write their own death sentence. They need to truly distinquish themselves from the competition and be a device everyone must have. Or, just embed PS3 into every Smart TV, phone, etc they make, using the PS brand as added value. Gaikai will allow that even for lower tech devices as long as they have wifi. In this case, PS and WiiU would share comparible stats and have the same games but MS would get upports of those games. An upport may not be nearly as impressive as a game designed for the superior tech, but it'll still be superior and will win a larger portion of the core away from Sony.

However, it's too early to determine Sony's strategy but all other things being equal, they'll do what they've always done - increase power. As for MS, I fully expect them to launch a much more powerful machine, and utilize that power in all sorts of interesting ways WiiU (and possibly PS4) can't match.

In a way you're actually re-affirming my point in the OP. Sony can't do "bigger, better, more powerful" - and I did say that unique features will be what sell the consoles (just like you said about PS4 in your last paragraph). And MS might go the way that you're describing above, but you have to remember that they'll be the only ones offering that service.

You said "We've seen lots of interesting patents from MS recently, all of which will require a lot of power to drive. In the end though it allows gameplay not possible on other systems, and that's key." Now, if this holds true they'll be in a similar position as Wii was this past gen. A unique way to play games, but with out 3rd party support. And that's the fault in your reasoning; you do not consider 3rd party developers. With development costs being high as it is, do you really see 3rd party devs supporting ONE console (with probably MUCH higher dev costs) or TWO consoles (WiiStation) for less cost?

They might win the gen this way, but they're gonna loos hell of a lot of money on it. No 3rd party support means no core gamers, meaning less sold SW in relation to HW, meaning they'll have to make money on subscriptions.