Why PS4 won't be cutting edge, and neither will Xbox3 - or Why Nintendo might win next gen

[Zappykins]

I think Sony will be a little more powerful than the WiiU as it is coming out later. But I am not sure by what amount. You really have to make a machine 2x at powerful to even notice. So if it's 5 times as powerful, it will be significant. I think Sony will really be pushing a medium price entry point and lots of high quality games - and something new which I don't think we know much of yet. (They have been trying to make the Playsation the central hub for years.)

As far as Kinect 2.0. The cost of Kinect 1.0 at launch was estimated around $50 for the hardware. Which means it should have sold for about $199 (unless you are Apple, then $399.) Kinect for Windows does sell at $249. A wholesaler wants to double the price, then the retailer doubles it again. It includes an HD colour camera (but only broadcast at ED at 640), the 3D camera, 4 microphones and some other hardware. Even if Kinect 2.0 has amazing hardware, it's not the primary cost of Kinect. The cost is the software/research.

Microsoft has spent dump trucks of money on its Natural User Interface, of which Kinect is a part. Kinect 2.0 will not be limited by the legacy X360s, the way the current one was. I think it will be stronger hardware, but the big boost will be in a significantly more powerful processor(s).

Even if they just stick with DirectX 11.1 (and I hope they go to 12 even-though I don't know what it is yet.) it takes an extremely powerful GPU to render all that extra goodness. Plus, with Kinect 2.0 they will need a super powerful CPU (or set of) for the Xbox to understand you and your environment.

Tie it all up that additional of revenue comes Xbox Live. They run a different model from Sony and Nintendo. Subscription, subscription, subscription. They can sell their hardware at a bigger loss as much of their revenue is Xlive in addition to the high attachment rate of the games.

In conclusion, I think Microsoft will have the most powerful hardware.

But they are still all limited by what is out, and technology keeps innovating along.