100m? Hmmm, possible, but not probable.

It all depends on the competition I guess; what will MicroSony do to counter WiiU?

There's 5 great things going for WiiU IMO:
1) Miiverse (facebook of gaming - c'mon that's a GREAT idea!! And MicroSony won't have enough time to counter it until they launch PS720)
2) Backwards compatibility; all Wii accessories will work on WiiU, which means you'll have those intuitive and easy to use Wiimotes casuals love to use, and are comfortable with to use.
3) NintendoTVii; it's great. Simply great. I want it here in EU as well!!! Hopefully they'll find a way to give it to us over here as well.
4) 3rd party support. From what I can tell (I'm no techie by any means, so I rely on others when they talk about CPU's and GPu's and what not) PS720 won't be graphically superior to WiiU in the same way as PS360 is to Wii. That means good (or at least decent) ports on WiiU, and not the gimped versions Wii got.
5) 1st party games. Nuff said.

Thanks for posting this. You exposed my exaggeration!  I would love to see numbers on the average price of a wii game sold minus the cost of shipping, the case/disc, and piece of hardware that was sold with it versus the other systems. The fact is that many of the Wii game sales were hardware bundles like balance board and and wii remote or motion plus ect. And the average sale price will have been much lower due to bargain bin purchasing and the 49.99 price for brand new premium games versus 59.99 on the other consoles.

While you exposed an exaggeration on my part and I due stand factually correct the point I was trying to make I still believe to be true. Nintendo might make just as much money off 60 to 70 million Wiiu's versus 100 Wii's. The attatch rates will be higher, they will make a lot more off digital customers, and the price of games have gone up. They will attract more avid gamers this time around. 

That's way too far down the line and far too many factors to consider to even begin to predict. If Nintendo plays it smart and keep the supply lines of games going, and hopefuly push third parties to do so as well, unlike in the latter years of the Wii, then I see no reason why the Wii U shouldn't get at least 80 million in sales. Especially when you consider the hit games Wii U is getting right off the bat in NSMB U, Dragon Quest, Monster Hunter, Wii Fit, and Call of Duty. But 100 million is a long shot, and IMO will require a few new surprise hit "lighning in a bottle" type games like Wii Sports and Fit were.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, this gen is Nintendo's to f-up. As long as they don't, I see a pretty bright future for the Wii U. Though you never known with Nintendo. They could get too complacent and too sure of themselves, and begin to rest on their laurels. They're already showing signs of that already. And as we've learned from Sony, that can lead to big problems.

I think so, I think alot of the posters are too sure of Ninty not having any more Wii__ games up their sleeves. Wii Fit U has already been announced this early. Wii U Sports is probably next sometime mid to late 2013. The vitality sensor game(Wii Relax, Wii Stress, or maybe Wiilax) should be the next hit sometime in 2014 with Mario kart U maybe. After that Wii music on a tablet sounds like a much better seller than Wii music with Wii remotes. I honestly think the Wii U will pass 100 million because it should be a more consistent seller and have large peaks like the Wii.

Something I have been thinking about lately which I think is related to this poll is "what would have happened had the Wii been launched in 2004 rather than 2006" ...

Now, the Wii and Wii U are different systems released under different circumstances but there are similarities and most of the differences seem like balanced trade-offs. The trade-offs are based on things like the Wii was a more innovative system but the Wii U is the successor to a dramatically more successful system.

My thinking about the Wii launching in 2004 is that Nintendo (probably) could have secured much more "hardcore" support from third party publishers because they could have ported PS2/XBox games to the Wii and the early success of the Wii could have prevented many publishers from betting as heavily on the HD consoles. Beyond that, the early struggles of the PS3 and XBox 360 would have only helped Nintendo demonstrate that their strategy was viable.

As far as sales go, I would have expected it to have sold as follows:

End of 2004: ~3 Million
End of 2005: ~20 Million
End of 2006: ~40 Million
End of 2007: ~60 Million
End of 2008: ~80 Million
End of 2009: ~100 Million
End of 2010: ~115 Million
End of 2011: ~130 Million
(replaced at end of 2011, slowly makes it to 145 million lifetime)



Why is this meaningful, because if Microsoft releases their system in 2013 and Sony follows in 2014 and they make significant mistakes this is how the Wii U could sell.

No. Kinect and Move will cut its way into the Casual Gamer audience.

it should be easy for nintendo if you think about it. i mean they are MASTERS of the casual market. they know what little kids and grannys and teenage girls want, so they always have that market locked down. all they need is PROPER games for the HARDCORE and they will dominate even more than SONY did back in the PS2 era.

No, I don't think it can. 70-80 million would be a great result. The market is moving faster and faster and is branching out into all sorts of areas and hardware, this means that the cake gets smaller and gets devoured a lot faster than before. There's also the simple fact that Nintendo still haven't been able to mend their relationship with 3rd parties and the WiiU as a product just doesn't seem to have the same appeal and impact that the Wii had in it's time, the web was on fire close to Wii launch, not a whole lot of buzz around the WiiU, most of my friends and relatives don't even know Nintendo is releasing a new console at all.

Anyone expecting the WiiU, X-box 720 or PS4 to pull amazing numbers are in for a disappointment in my opinion.

Think about it.. Yes laptops, tablet and smartphones have moved focus, and also bring games.. and it took a bit of the gaming sales.. 

But  the true consols are still the best solution to play games.. AND this time The consols strike back.. have you seen nintendo tvii.. do u know that the wii u will have a super cool html5 browser that can way  more than any thing apple or samsung has in the moment  and that the consols are starting to get apps to..

The consols strike back.. and they are cheap.. (I think the consols sales will be the same or better than last gen)

Depends there is a chance. But there is a better chance that all consoles next gen will end in the 60million-to-80million range