Something I have been thinking about lately which I think is related to this poll is "what would have happened had the Wii been launched in 2004 rather than 2006" ...
Now, the Wii and Wii U are different systems released under different circumstances but there are similarities and most of the differences seem like balanced trade-offs. The trade-offs are based on things like the Wii was a more innovative system but the Wii U is the successor to a dramatically more successful system.
My thinking about the Wii launching in 2004 is that Nintendo (probably) could have secured much more "hardcore" support from third party publishers because they could have ported PS2/XBox games to the Wii and the early success of the Wii could have prevented many publishers from betting as heavily on the HD consoles. Beyond that, the early struggles of the PS3 and XBox 360 would have only helped Nintendo demonstrate that their strategy was viable.
As far as sales go, I would have expected it to have sold as follows:
End of 2004: ~3 Million
End of 2005: ~20 Million
End of 2006: ~40 Million
End of 2007: ~60 Million
End of 2008: ~80 Million
End of 2009: ~100 Million
End of 2010: ~115 Million
End of 2011: ~130 Million
(replaced at end of 2011, slowly makes it to 145 million lifetime)
Why is this meaningful, because if Microsoft releases their system in 2013 and Sony follows in 2014 and they make significant mistakes this is how the Wii U could sell.
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