Is there any doubt? It's gonna be 3D Mario.

Mario Kart or a Zelda or a Smash Brothers game before Xmas 2013?

Possibly Super Mario Galaxy 3, if the Galaxy team wasn't slowed down by making 3D Land.

Probably Retro's big game, since they seem to make a new one every three years.

Maybe something from Good-Feel, since its already been 2 years since Epic Yarn and 2D platformers have shorter development times.

Monolith's also been working on their game for two years already, since Xenoblade was a 2010 release in Japan.

We're also due for a Stadium-esque Pokemon game.

So, in short, quite a few possibilities.

17 to 20 million for its first year is almost guaranteed. Many fans demand a new system. The 7th generation has gone on long enough.

I think I agree here. I'm not sure, which console will win next gen, at least if we know nothing about the competition. If they all do it right, I see all three selling around 60-80 million. Maybe the year head-start gives nintendo the win, but I wouldn't bet on it yet. And profitablility-wise I have the strong feeling Nintendo is fine.

maybe, it releases alone and has a year ahead of other consoles, so yeah is possible if the price is right.

I'd say 12m

EDIT: or maybe 13

hard to say before i see how people like it^^

btw that analyst you quoted also tweeted yesterday that he expects wii u to sell 50% of wii lifetime.

Maybe ...

To achieve this I think Nintendo will need a strong first holiday season (3 to 4 million units sold), followed by relatively high weekly console sales until the end of its first year (150,000 to 200,000 on average), and then the second holiday season should easily make this happen.

I agree with this. It'll be like the wii in it's first year,were it was really hard to find on shelves,unless you were able to pre-order one.