I think we're just going to see a split in the market, it already sorta happened this past gen, but it'll be more pronounced next gen.

PS4/720 will be a higher segment of the market for really hardcore players/people who are willing to spend a lot of money. The exclusives on these two platforms will be extremely high end graphical types of games. Things like that new Square-Enix engine and Unreal Engine 4 will be on these platforms. To reach a more casual audience I think MS may try to market the XBox 720 as more of an all-purpose set top box to counter Apple iTV though. 

Wii U/360/PS3 will be another segment of the market. I think what the Wii U actually will do is prolong the 360/PS3 lifespans for another 4-5 years, and developers will make a lot of games that a multiplatform for these three systems. Also for devs that can't afford to make higher end PS4/720 games, they'll stick with these three. By the time the PS4/720 launch, the combined userbase of these three systems will probably be approaching 140-150 million.

This is but an ill-conceived assessment based on esteemed bias towards Nintendo

The main flaw I see in your argument is that you put far too much importance on the core gamer. The core gamer is only a segment of the market, and a small one at that. This is the same mistake made 6 years ago when virtually everyone and their grandmother predicted doom for the Wii, and utter dominance of the PS3. They didn't realize there was a market for gaming beyond the 15-28 year old males.

So you think Sony and MS are going to be able to catch up to the sales of a console that has:

A. Probably at least a year head start on the market

B. The so called "casual" market on board, when MS, and especially Sony, has proven they do not really understand how to sell to this market

C. Established Nintendo franchises, including major hits like NSMB, Wii Fit, and Dragon Quest in Japan at or near launch, and Smash Brothers, Zelda, Metroid, and so on further down the pipleline. This isn't like the Gamecube where Nintendo had no 2D Mario game and relied on primarily niche titles. They now have franchises with established fanbases of countless millions to draw upon.

D. Almost guarenteed lower pricepoint.

Sony and MS will undoubtedly have the horsepower advantage, but that's really the only advantage I can see at this point. I think history has shown that that means nothing in terms of success. In fact, if anything, the least powerful console almost always becomes the most successful. You could argue the third party support will be superior on Sony and MS's consoles, but again, Wii showed that that doesn't really matter. Nintendo is enough of a presence in the industry, and their games are of enough quality that they can surive on their own. Besides, I don't see the power gap being as big as Wii-PS360, so I think it's likely Nintendo gets far more third party support this time around, as cross porting should be easier. I don't know much about Unreal Engine 4, but what I have heard is that the software will be very scalable, so that tells me there shouldn't be any issue porting to Wii U. If there is, than big deal, it's not like it's the only engine out there.

And what are all of these games that will sway gamers to wait for and pick up Sony and MS's $400-$500 machines? Especially after the news that Nintendo's console will likely get the next Call of Duty. I also would wager that they will snag at least some of the other big franchises as well that were once non-Nintendo exclusives like Resident Evil, GTA, etc.

I think it's a longshot that Sony and MS's machines will reach Wii U's success with all these factors in mind.. But I guess all we can do at this point is speculate. At the end of the day no one really knows what will go down. I mean hell, 99% of analysts got this gen totally wrong, and this is their freakin job. How can we hope to predict anything close to the correct outcome? I think the Wii proved that even the most unexpected outcome can come to fruition. It will all boil down to the games, and outside the Wii U launch window games, we simply know nothing about what future games will be like.

I never said which product is going to sell what. For all we know none of them may ever reach the LTD of the current consoles. Wouldn't surprise me one bit actually. 

Just mainly I don't see 360/PS3 going anywhere for a long time. If a developer is going to make a Wii U game, I think they're going to look at the PS3/360 and say "why not make a PS3/360 version, the userbase is so big there". Like I think you will see for example Rayman Legends on the PS3/360 next year. 

They're just different types of products. A BMW/Lexus sedan is a car, just like a Honda/Hyundai is but they are priced and aimed at different markets. I see the next generation working on that way too. 

I think Wii U's competetion is actually more the PS3/360, 720/PS4 is just a different type of market and probably a totally different pricing range. 

One is not "right" and one is not "wrong", it's just a matter of what your preferences as a consumer. 

Maybe, but look at the Wii. Third parties have clearly shown they don't care about userbase before, even when Wii was outselling its competitors like 3 to 1 combined. Why would they suddenly care now? Developers chose the HD consoles this gen because of the power advantage over the Wii, but now if we're talking PS360 vs Wii U, you can throw that advantage out the window. Wii U is fact going to be MORE powerful than PS360.. Plus you've got the fun little tablet thing to work with. I would think these factors would give incentive to work on Nintendo's console. I mean, I know I'd prefer to work on a brand new console than a 6-7 year old one, and I'm sure many devs would too. But we'll see.. I also thought most third parties in their right mind would shift support over to the Wii, and as we know, that didn't happen, so who knows.

The only thing I got is some third parties might be scared of their games competing directly with Nintendo's, as some admitted this gen, in which case they're probably not good enough anyway, and not worth my hard earned $.

The issue with Nintendo is more of a demographic one I think. The GameCube had better graphics than the PS2 and pretty close to the XBox. Didn't stop a lot/most of third party games from selling worse on the GameCube. 

The Wii just took it a really extreme level. 

Competetion between developers is too intense for visual advances to stop entirely too, I think you're wrong on that. If I'm the publisher of Battlefield and my team is making the PS4/720 version, I'm going to push them to make it look notably better than Call of Duty. Because if I'm the publisher I need that extra edge to get attention for my product. Then the Call of Duty guys are going to have to step their game up. Then some other dev half way around the world comes out with something that blows both away, and now the stakes are higher. 

I just don't see the above dynamic changing. Just because Nintendo has their philosophy doesn't mean other developers around the world will listen or go along with that. I think a lot of Japanese devs will (PS3/360/Wii U level visuals are good enough/we don't want to spend more), but I doubt that's shared by every developer. 

well, at least this is not a Nintendo hating article for once, though this whole can Sony and MS compete thing is weird, I think they are doing just fine, just not as well.

Ya I think Nintendo is in big trouble with this new system. Its cool and all but I dont think it will sell like the Wii. Microsoft is the new bully on the block. Sony has always had stellar hardware. I think Sony and Microsoft will be the ones laying the beat down this time around. Nintendo is back pedalling into this Wii U.They have lost alot of money with lagging Wii sales. There hoping a new system will generate much needed cash. Who knows it might sell but I just dont see it. Nintendo is in alot more trouble than people realize they need the Wii U to sell alot of consoles and games. I was wrong about Wii also I thought it was cool but never imagined it would sell like it did. Maybe Wii U will do the same. We will find out. Just remember Microsoft and Sony are waiting in the wings to steal the spotlight!

The Giants are the reigning Superbowl champions.  This shows that their coaching is strong, their players are talented, and their overall strategies are working.

Now does this mean that the Giants will definitely win the superbowl next year?  No.  Could the Giants collapse and go 0-16?  Sure.  Does it mean they're in a better position than other teams?  Yeah.

Claiming that the Wii U will automatically win because of the Wii is stupid.  Ignoring their past success is just as stupid.

If you want to appeal to tablet game players, you have to offer something different.  Yet, at the same time, those players may be intimidated by something like a Dualshock 3 controller.  The Wii U tablet is something different.  The dual screens, multiplayer capabilities, and buttons can offer some really unique options when combined with the tablet.  At the same time, it's something familiar and unintimidating.

The Wii's relationship to third parties is due to its hardware deficiencies, and that was addressed in the article.  Third parties WANT to be able to make games for the Wii.  They want every revenue stream possible.  If they CAN bring games to the Wii U, they will.

As for the 130 million gamers, there are tons of people who bought the Wii that will be looking to upgrade. There are a lot of truly hardcore gamers who want to have every system possible.  There are kids that are 5-10 who are looking for their first gaming system.  There are people who started playing on their iPad and are curious to see what else may be out there.  There are people who never played games before in their lives.  There's a big world out there, and Nintendo has always wanted a piece of that.  I think people are underestimating the potential of the Wii U to appeal to casual markets.

The upad is not a tablet.