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Forums - Movies & TV - No Hope for the Dark Knight Rises domestic Box office (450 million tops)!

 

Will The Dark Knight Rises cross the $1B mark?

Yes 22 66.67%
 
No 9 27.27%
 
It will do the impossible... 2 6.06%
 
Total:33
Boutros on 29 July 2012

I think people are underestimating The Joker effect on TDK. It's one the biggest reason why it had such good word-of-mouth. I kept on hearing "the movie is worth watching for Heath Ledger's performance alone" and so a lot of people who usually don't find any appeal in movies like TDK went to see it. I remember reading an article where James Cameron explained why Avatar had such a great run and it applied to TDK too.



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dsage01 on 29 July 2012
Runa216 said:
Mordred11 said:
Runa216 said:

No.  No they didn't.  Even immediately following The Dark Knight's box office run, EVERYONE agreed that unless this movie was transcendant, there was no way it'd match The Dark Knight's box office.  Generally, people predicted anywhere from high 300 million (say 375+) to about mid 400 million (425-475).  Basically, anyone who studied box office agreed that Heath Ledger's stunning performance and subsequent death added as much as 100 million to the movie's gross simply on account of it being a "see his final performance" event movie.  

I used to hang out with the most prominent and well respected group of box office predictors on the web (forums at BoxOfficeMojo), and trust me, nobody aside from some extremists thought this had a chance at breaking 500 million, realistically.  hoped, yes, but didn't expect.  It's performing almost entirely in line with where it should be.  

That's not true. I visit BOM and box-office related forums ever since 2009. A lot of people predicted $500M+ in the last couple of months. Estimates for this weekend have gone higher , it can definitely do a little more than $450M. Nobody will ever know where this movie would have really ended if the shootings + the press didn't hurt it.

Hell , even BOM itself predicted $214M in it's OW,which would have guaranteed $500M.

I'd been visiting since 2001 and had been a forum regular since 2003 :P 


Many people were predicting it would pass the 500 million mark and beat The Dark Knight's total if the film had a good word of mouth like the Avengers and The Dark Knight



Runa216 on 29 July 2012
Mordred11 said:
Runa216 said:
Mordred11 said:
Runa216 said:

No.  No they didn't.  Even immediately following The Dark Knight's box office run, EVERYONE agreed that unless this movie was transcendant, there was no way it'd match The Dark Knight's box office.  Generally, people predicted anywhere from high 300 million (say 375+) to about mid 400 million (425-475).  Basically, anyone who studied box office agreed that Heath Ledger's stunning performance and subsequent death added as much as 100 million to the movie's gross simply on account of it being a "see his final performance" event movie.  

I used to hang out with the most prominent and well respected group of box office predictors on the web (forums at BoxOfficeMojo), and trust me, nobody aside from some extremists thought this had a chance at breaking 500 million, realistically.  hoped, yes, but didn't expect.  It's performing almost entirely in line with where it should be.  

That's not true. I visit BOM and box-office related forums ever since 2009. A lot of people predicted $500M+ in the last couple of months. Estimates for this weekend have gone higher , it can definitely do a little more than $450M. Nobody will ever know where this movie would have really ended if the shootings + the press didn't hurt it.

Hell , even BOM itself predicted $214M in it's OW,which would have guaranteed $500M.

I'd been visiting since 2001 and had been a forum regular since 2003 :P 

That doesn't change the truth one bit though :P. And the truth is the majority had higher expectations for this movie!

yes, pre-release hype always makes people go "oh my god this movie is almost out I hope it makes a billion dollars!", even though those last minute boosts in expectations are almost always way too high. The most rational predictions for big tentpole releases usually come well before the film's official release.  Realistically speaking, 450 was a good and rational number, and that's where it's going to end up. 



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dsage01 on 29 July 2012

So most people on the box office thread are saying that TDKR will pass $500 million domesitcally but not a $1Billion WW...wow!



crissindahouse on 29 July 2012

i believe some really understimate the heath ledger death effect which we didn't have this time. best know for music, when houston or whoever died, their records destroyed the charts, even 20 years old records. and that over weeks. not sure how much that helped batman but i bet there were some, especially woman who just went to the movie with their friend/husband to see heath ledger (even if he looked a little bit different^^). normall they would have said "ohh no batman? common i have better things to do" but then they watched it.



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Farsala on 29 July 2012
crissindahouse said:
Farsala said:
I really wonder do other countries get the news of the shootings? Being an American myself I never hear about tragic events in other countries unless its like a huge landslide,flood,hurricane.

yes it was in all newspapers and on every channel here in germany and that over some days. we always here here about almost everything in the world if it comes to news like that.  i wonder why your news don't show something of other countries?

Really interesting, but take for example I have never heard of any news that has come from countries like poland, hungary, switzerland. All small countries but stuff still happens. I also feel like the ones who find out first are those most familiar with english. So modern countries in southeast asia probably do not get the news as quick as say european countries.