No Hope for the Dark Knight Rises domestic Box office (450 million tops)!

[Runa216]

Mordred11 said:

Runa216 said:

Mordred11 said:

Runa216 said:

No.  No they didn't.  Even immediately following The Dark Knight's box office run, EVERYONE agreed that unless this movie was transcendant, there was no way it'd match The Dark Knight's box office.  Generally, people predicted anywhere from high 300 million (say 375+) to about mid 400 million (425-475).  Basically, anyone who studied box office agreed that Heath Ledger's stunning performance and subsequent death added as much as 100 million to the movie's gross simply on account of it being a "see his final performance" event movie.  

I used to hang out with the most prominent and well respected group of box office predictors on the web (forums at BoxOfficeMojo), and trust me, nobody aside from some extremists thought this had a chance at breaking 500 million, realistically.  hoped, yes, but didn't expect.  It's performing almost entirely in line with where it should be.  

That's not true. I visit BOM and box-office related forums ever since 2009. A lot of people predicted $500M+ in the last couple of months. Estimates for this weekend have gone higher , it can definitely do a little more than $450M. Nobody will ever know where this movie would have really ended if the shootings + the press didn't hurt it.

Hell , even BOM itself predicted $214M in it's OW,which would have guaranteed $500M.

I'd been visiting since 2001 and had been a forum regular since 2003 :P 

That doesn't change the truth one bit though :P. And the truth is the majority had higher expectations for this movie!

yes, pre-release hype always makes people go "oh my god this movie is almost out I hope it makes a billion dollars!", even though those last minute boosts in expectations are almost always way too high. The most rational predictions for big tentpole releases usually come well before the film's official release.  Realistically speaking, 450 was a good and rational number, and that's where it's going to end up.