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Forums - Movies & TV - No Hope for the Dark Knight Rises domestic Box office (450 million tops)!

 

Will The Dark Knight Rises cross the $1B mark?

Yes 22 66.67%
 
No 9 27.27%
 
It will do the impossible... 2 6.06%
 
Total:33
crissindahouse on 29 July 2012
Farsala said:
I really wonder do other countries get the news of the shootings? Being an American myself I never hear about tragic events in other countries unless its like a huge landslide,flood,hurricane.

yes it was in all newspapers and on every channel here in germany and that over some days. we always here here about almost everything in the world if it comes to news like that.  i wonder why your news don't show something of other countries?



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dsage01 on 29 July 2012
crissindahouse said:
Farsala said:
I really wonder do other countries get the news of the shootings? Being an American myself I never hear about tragic events in other countries unless its like a huge landslide,flood,hurricane.

yes it was in all newspapers and on every channel here in germany and that over some days. we always here here about almost everything in the world if it comes to news like that.  i wonder why your news don't show something of other countries?


I hate to say this but American media basically thinks they're the only country in the world. I'm Canadian and the only news we ever get about our country is " a dog on this street died yesterday", "one man was stabbed" etc. so therfore we get news on most powerful countries such as US, India, China, UK etc.



Runa216 on 29 July 2012

*sigh* dude, The Dark Knight Rises is going to end up precisely where EVERY seasoned Box Office Veteran expected it would. While yes, many fully expected it to be #1 for the year with about 450 million in US box office receipts, nobody predicted The Avengers would break as many records as it did or manage to BEAT Titanic's original run.

There is nothing wrong with the Dark Knight's performance. There is nothing even remotely close to a failure, and while the shootings certainly did put a damper on its opening weekend, it likely had little effect on its longterm prospects.



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Runa216 on 29 July 2012
pezus said:
Runa216 said:
*sigh* dude, The Dark Knight Rises is going to end up precisely where EVERY seasoned Box Office Veteran expected it would. While yes, many fully expected it to be #1 for the year with about 450 million in US box office receipts, nobody predicted The Avengers would break as many records as it did or manage to BEAT Titanic's original run.

There is nothing wrong with the Dark Knight's performance. There is nothing even remotely close to a failure, and while the shootings certainly did put a damper on its opening weekend, it likely had little effect on its longterm prospects.

While I do agree that there's nothing wrong with the numbers per se, I think most people expected at least 500m+ for it given TDK's $533m or so gross.

No.  No they didn't.  Even immediately following The Dark Knight's box office run, EVERYONE agreed that unless this movie was transcendant, there was no way it'd match The Dark Knight's box office.  Generally, people predicted anywhere from high 300 million (say 375+) to about mid 400 million (425-475).  Basically, anyone who studied box office agreed that Heath Ledger's stunning performance and subsequent death added as much as 100 million to the movie's gross simply on account of it being a "see his final performance" event movie.  

I used to hang out with the most prominent and well respected group of box office predictors on the web (forums at BoxOfficeMojo), and trust me, nobody aside from some extremists thought this had a chance at breaking 500 million, realistically.  hoped, yes, but didn't expect.  It's performing almost entirely in line with where it should be.  



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Runa216 on 29 July 2012
pezus said:

I don't know about you, but saying EVERYONE is a gross exaggeration. And you say you were on BOM, wasn't their official prediction 500m+? I for one expected 500m+, but I am no expert. I know Mordred expected 500m+ too and Darth, and they seem to hang around BOM a lot.

the official Box Office Mojo forums got taken down in late 2010, I think, so it's been a long time since I was able to interact with people, but by 'everyone', I basically meant "everyone who wasn't an outlier.'  There were a few 500 million+ predictions, but the average from what I remember was hovering just below 450.  

And that 500+ prediction was from one of the site's writers....he, Scott Holleran, and Brandon Grey were never exactly the best predictors.  Generally speaking, the best predictors were the forumgoers.  



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D-Joe on 29 July 2012

well TDKR doing very good oversea this time,especially in asia

btw domestic second week estimate up to 64m now



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Mordred11 on 29 July 2012
Runa216 said:

No.  No they didn't.  Even immediately following The Dark Knight's box office run, EVERYONE agreed that unless this movie was transcendant, there was no way it'd match The Dark Knight's box office.  Generally, people predicted anywhere from high 300 million (say 375+) to about mid 400 million (425-475).  Basically, anyone who studied box office agreed that Heath Ledger's stunning performance and subsequent death added as much as 100 million to the movie's gross simply on account of it being a "see his final performance" event movie.  

I used to hang out with the most prominent and well respected group of box office predictors on the web (forums at BoxOfficeMojo), and trust me, nobody aside from some extremists thought this had a chance at breaking 500 million, realistically.  hoped, yes, but didn't expect.  It's performing almost entirely in line with where it should be.  

That's not true. I visit BOM and box-office related forums ever since 2009. A lot of people predicted $500M+ in the last couple of months. Estimates for this weekend have gone higher , it can definitely do a little more than $450M. Nobody will ever know where this movie would have really ended if the shootings + the press didn't hurt it.

Hell , even BOM itself predicted $214M in it's OW,which would have guaranteed $500M.



Runa216 on 29 July 2012
Mordred11 said:
Runa216 said:

No.  No they didn't.  Even immediately following The Dark Knight's box office run, EVERYONE agreed that unless this movie was transcendant, there was no way it'd match The Dark Knight's box office.  Generally, people predicted anywhere from high 300 million (say 375+) to about mid 400 million (425-475).  Basically, anyone who studied box office agreed that Heath Ledger's stunning performance and subsequent death added as much as 100 million to the movie's gross simply on account of it being a "see his final performance" event movie.  

I used to hang out with the most prominent and well respected group of box office predictors on the web (forums at BoxOfficeMojo), and trust me, nobody aside from some extremists thought this had a chance at breaking 500 million, realistically.  hoped, yes, but didn't expect.  It's performing almost entirely in line with where it should be.  

That's not true. I visit BOM and box-office related forums ever since 2009. A lot of people predicted $500M+ in the last couple of months. Estimates for this weekend have gone higher , it can definitely do a little more than $450M. Nobody will ever know where this movie would have really ended if the shootings + the press didn't hurt it.

Hell , even BOM itself predicted $214M in it's OW,which would have guaranteed $500M.

I'd been visiting since 2001 and had been a forum regular since 2003 :P 



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Mordred11 on 29 July 2012
Runa216 said:
Mordred11 said:
Runa216 said:

No.  No they didn't.  Even immediately following The Dark Knight's box office run, EVERYONE agreed that unless this movie was transcendant, there was no way it'd match The Dark Knight's box office.  Generally, people predicted anywhere from high 300 million (say 375+) to about mid 400 million (425-475).  Basically, anyone who studied box office agreed that Heath Ledger's stunning performance and subsequent death added as much as 100 million to the movie's gross simply on account of it being a "see his final performance" event movie.  

I used to hang out with the most prominent and well respected group of box office predictors on the web (forums at BoxOfficeMojo), and trust me, nobody aside from some extremists thought this had a chance at breaking 500 million, realistically.  hoped, yes, but didn't expect.  It's performing almost entirely in line with where it should be.  

That's not true. I visit BOM and box-office related forums ever since 2009. A lot of people predicted $500M+ in the last couple of months. Estimates for this weekend have gone higher , it can definitely do a little more than $450M. Nobody will ever know where this movie would have really ended if the shootings + the press didn't hurt it.

Hell , even BOM itself predicted $214M in it's OW,which would have guaranteed $500M.

I'd been visiting since 2001 and had been a forum regular since 2003 :P 

That doesn't change the truth one bit though :P. And the truth is the majority had higher expectations for this movie!



Mordred11 on 29 July 2012

I'm still not quite sure why this thread was created since we were already discussing this matter in the box-office thread. Oh well