No Hope for the Dark Knight Rises domestic Box office (450 million tops)!

[Runa216]

pezus said:

Runa216 said:
*sigh* dude, The Dark Knight Rises is going to end up precisely where EVERY seasoned Box Office Veteran expected it would. While yes, many fully expected it to be #1 for the year with about 450 million in US box office receipts, nobody predicted The Avengers would break as many records as it did or manage to BEAT Titanic's original run.

There is nothing wrong with the Dark Knight's performance. There is nothing even remotely close to a failure, and while the shootings certainly did put a damper on its opening weekend, it likely had little effect on its longterm prospects.

While I do agree that there's nothing wrong with the numbers per se, I think most people expected at least 500m+ for it given TDK's $533m or so gross.

No.  No they didn't.  Even immediately following The Dark Knight's box office run, EVERYONE agreed that unless this movie was transcendant, there was no way it'd match The Dark Knight's box office.  Generally, people predicted anywhere from high 300 million (say 375+) to about mid 400 million (425-475).  Basically, anyone who studied box office agreed that Heath Ledger's stunning performance and subsequent death added as much as 100 million to the movie's gross simply on account of it being a "see his final performance" event movie.  

I used to hang out with the most prominent and well respected group of box office predictors on the web (forums at BoxOfficeMojo), and trust me, nobody aside from some extremists thought this had a chance at breaking 500 million, realistically.  hoped, yes, but didn't expect.  It's performing almost entirely in line with where it should be.