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Forums - Nintendo - Predict the Total sales of 3DS Games

Now that the charts are back, I decided to do some comparisons between current 3DS titles and similar predecessors to determine their likely lifetime sales. So let's go!

 

1. Super Mario 3D Land - This title is currently at 6.3 million sales. Considering how this is slightly above where Super Mario Galaxy was five years ago, I suspect that Super Mario 3D Land will sell a total of 10 to 11 million.

2. Mario Kart 7 - At this point in its life, Mario Kart DS had nearly 1.7 million fewer sales than 7 did. If 7 continues to have strong legs and the 3DS has a life on par with the DS, we could see Mario Kart 7 selling in the 20 to 30 million range!

3. Ocarina of Time 3D - This is harder to determine, since there has never been a 3D Zelda remake before. However, there has been a handheld N64 classic remake: Super Mario 64 DS! Currently, Mario is ahead by about 20%, so it appears unlikely that Zelda will ever reach extreme numbers. Furthermore, its legs seem low. I doubt Ocarina of Time 3D will ever surpass 5 million.

4. Nintendogs + cats - The original was definately the more popular game, by a margin of 3 or 4 to 1. However, the original game had great legs, and the sequel's aren't that bad either. This game can eventually outsell Ocarina of Time and reach 5 to 6 million.

5. Monster Hunter 3G - Based solely on Japanese sales, the 3DS version of this game had a far weaker start than the PSP version, but has healthy legs in Japan. It can easily reach 2 million. It may take until after Monster Hunter 4 is released, but it can do it.

6. Resident Evil: Revelations - Surprisingly, this game is not doomed yet. It still sells thousands of copies a week, and has yet to experience a holiday boost. I expect it to sell a cool million lifetime.

7. Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games - Once again, we have a game that is selling far worse than its predecessors, but is still doing decently. Another million seller.



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I linked to the graphs for funsies ;)

Salnax said:

Now that the charts are back, I decided to do some comparisons between current 3DS titles and similar predecessors to determine their likely lifetime sales. So let's go!

 

1. Super Mario 3D Land - This title is currently at 6.3 million sales. Considering how this is slightly above where Super Mario Galaxy was five years ago, I suspect that Super Mario 3D Land will sell a total of 10 to 11 million.

http://goo.gl/O8S6A

 

2. Mario Kart 7 - At this point in its life, Mario Kart DS had nearly 1.7 million fewer sales than 7 did. If 7 continues to have strong legs and the 3DS has a life on par with the DS, we could see Mario Kart 7 selling in the 20 to 30 million range!

http://goo.gl/QNqpT

 

3. Ocarina of Time 3D - This is harder to determine, since there has never been a 3D Zelda remake before. However, there has been a handheld N64 classic remake: Super Mario 64 DS! Currently, Mario is ahead by about 20%, so it appears unlikely that Zelda will ever reach extreme numbers. Furthermore, its legs seem low. I doubt Ocarina of Time 3D will ever surpass 5 million.

http://goo.gl/Xd9N4

 

4. Nintendogs + cats - The original was definately the more popular game, by a margin of 3 or 4 to 1. However, the original game had great legs, and the sequel's aren't that bad either. This game can eventually outsell Ocarina of Time and reach 5 to 6 million.

http://goo.gl/Rbhuv

 

5. Monster Hunter 3G - Based solely on Japanese sales, the 3DS version of this game had a far weaker start than the PSP version, but has healthy legs in Japan. It can easily reach 2 million. It may take until after Monster Hunter 4 is released, but it can do it.

PSP MHs (Freedom Series): http://goo.gl/rjVai

3DS vs PSP MHs http://goo.gl/UaJ2w

3G, Tri, Freedom http://goo.gl/eCLe9

 

6. Resident Evil: Revelations - Surprisingly, this game is not doomed yet. It still sells thousands of copies a week, and has yet to experience a holiday boost. I expect it to sell a cool million lifetime.

RE4, 5 and RE:R  http://goo.gl/hlPJZ

 

7. Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games - Once again, we have a game that is selling far worse than its predecessors, but is still doing decently. Another million seller.

M&S Wii vs DS (2 first games)  http://goo.gl/HwVHX

Weakest vs london olympic games Wii & 3DS http://goo.gl/T3fe0

 

Title Prediction Predicted Reasons
1. Super Mario 3D Land 12m Galaxy to a T
2. Mario Kart 7 25m Somewhere btw MK Wii and DS
3. Ocarina of Time 3D 7m The potential of Super Mario 64 DS with the sales track record of TP.
4. Nintendogs + cats 15m This should pick up massively this holiday season, when the Western 3DS userbase grows.
5. Monster Hunter 3G 3.5m Better legs than Freedom 2 but similar initial trend.
6. Resident Evil: Revelations 1.5m Legs but not a commercial success like its home console analogs.
7. Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games 2m Will explode this holiday, but not enough to beat Winter Games DS.


1. Super Mario 3D Land - 10-12m

2. Mario Kart 7 - 15-20m

3. Ocarina of Time 3D - 4-5m

4. Nintendogs + cats - 7-8m

5. Monster Hunter 3G - 2-2.5m

6. Resident Evil: Revelations - 1-1.5m

7. Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games - 4-6m



MH3G is not going to be released in the west



Super Mario 3D Land - 9.5 Million

Mario Kart 7 - 15-20 Million. I expect a 2nd MK on 3DS...

OoT 3D - 4.5 Million

Nintendogs and cats - 8 Million

Monster Hunter 3G - Depends on a Western release. 2.5 Million WITH a Western Release.

RE:R - 1.3 Million

Mario and Sonic will clear 2 Million.



                            

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These sales are with my guess that the 3ds will end up selling way below the ds lifetime. 

super mario 3d land -9mil. Sales will die down a lot when new super mario bros comes out and it only kept up with super mario galaxy because it got heavily bundled these holidays. It will fall behind if it doesn't get bundled again.

Mario Kart 7 -15mil. It may be ahead of the ds version but now we have handy tools to look at mario kart's legs. Mario kart 7 will not be able to emulate mario kart ds's legs because the 3ds will not be the sales behemoth the ds was in 2007/2008/2009.

Zelda Ocarina of Time -4mil. Another heavily bundled holiday game. It's legs have dropped down to next to nothing. 5k weekly. Not an evergreen type of title. Won't reach past 4mil without another bundle.

Nintendogs+Cats -10mil. I think nintendo will continue to bundle this game every holiday to appeal to little girls, so while this game won't get to nintendogs level, it will sell quite well.

Resident Evil Revelations -1mil- Weekly sales have dropped down to under 2k. It will only make it to 1mil if it experiences a decent holiday boost and maybe even a bundle.



Nintendo flipped their strategy a bit with both 3DS and now the Wii U supporting the core gamers first. I'm a little distracted since I keep looking back at GC, which obviously isn't the case.
This will all depend how well Nintendo markets the system around the holidays.

•Super Mario 3D Land: This may not even make it to 20m, specially with the release of NSMB2 looming. I say 15m
•Mario Kart 7: Possibly 15m LTD. Downplayed a bit.
•Ocarina of Time 3D: A remake that's accesible for GC as well as WiiWare. I say it'll still do 4.5m
•Nintendogs + cats: This is one of those titles I could never gauge. Like I said with Nintendo's strategy, I'll say 15m? I really have no idea.
•Monster Hunter 3G: Considering it's only avaiable in Japan at the moment and it's already done 1.51m, I say it may possible compete with its PSP counterparts. I say 3.5m
•Resident Evil: Revelations: Between GC levels and Wii sales. I say 2m.
•Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games: 4m



I'm still optimistic that KID ICARUS would reach 1 MILLION in its lifetime.



 

aikohualda said:
I'm still optimistic that KID ICARUS would reach 1 MILLION in its lifetime.


At the current rate, ignoring the holiday boost, I think it can make it there before its one year anniversary. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if it sold 2 million lifetime.



Salnax said:
aikohualda said:
I'm still optimistic that KID ICARUS would reach 1 MILLION in its lifetime.


At the current rate, ignoring the holiday boost, I think it can make it there before its one year anniversary. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if it sold 2 million lifetime.

i hope so... 210k more