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Forums - Sales Discussion - Media Create Sales 1/30 ~ 2/5

RolStoppable said:
DemoniOtaku said:
RolStoppable said:

But without Mario Kart 7, they wouldn't have built up huge momentum in the first place. The 3DS would have been a $250 system with only one big original game and a bunch of remakes and ports.

The reason why nintendo rushed the Release of 3DS was the same as SONY rushed vita's on japanese market.. to don´t let the competence take so much advantage... Nintendo wante to gain "momentum" and only gained once some good games come out and got a price cut. Sony Wanted to scratch some of teh Japanses market and release the console during holiday on at least one market, but it was uneffective, although they haven´t lose anything, jus rushed a console in a market without any games that support and represent based on the tastes of that market... Until western release we could not see if a price cut is necesary for the vita or Not... but the memory cards need one price cut that's for sure...

And I don't think that 3Ds could have sold as well on holidays with 250$ price tag even with the "trident" that have now... Because before the pricecut some people said: "is so much money i'll have to wait some games to buy one" And just after the price cut when the sales picked up: "Is cheaper now! I'll buy one and wait for the games over holiday or later!" For most of people is seemed like a Offer than a price cut...

Looks like you agree with me on all accounts, but I still need to comment on the bolded part, because the misuse of the word "competence" is just too funny and at the same time fitting.

 

My bad.. In spanish Competencia= competence.. I was thinking they were True cognates.. Competencia in spanish mean, rivalry and capability depending on the context, they are Homonymous words.. What word should I hae used there? ;) I'll thanks your help..



 

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RolStoppable said:
DemoniOtaku said:

My bad.. In spanish Competencia= competence.. I was thinking they were True cognates.. Competencia in spanish mean, rivalry and capability depending on the context, they are Homonymous words.. What word should I hae used there? ;) I'll thanks your help..

Competition.

Thanks, i'll remember from now on.. My english is stil far from perfect...



 

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RolStoppable said:
happydolphin said:
RolStoppable said:

You are delusional.

And yes, that is my argument.

Thanks, that helps. Now I understand much more what you meant.

If you don't take me seriously, then you shouldn't be surprised when I treat you the same way.

I told you to take another look at the third party support for handhelds. The Japanese market is the most important one here, because approximately 95 % of the worthwile handheld games are developed in this country. Western publishers hardly give a damn about handhelds and if anything, they are moving towards iOS and Android.

In 2010, 22m units of DS software were sold and 16.5m units of PSP software. Since we are talking about third party support, we need to exclude first party software sales. On Sony's side, there's not much to deduct, because Sony's first party is basically non-existent on handhelds. On Nintendo's side, you have 5m units of Pokémon and 1m Tomodachi Collection, plus evergreens like NSMB and MK DS that each moved about a quarter of a million units. So for 2010, the PSP beat the DS in third party software sales despite an installed base that is only half the DS's; and if you scroll through the list of the yearly topsellers you'll easily find more high profile third party titles for the PSP which explains why the PSP won.

For 2011, a transitional year, I will combine DS and 3DS as well as PSP and PSV. 14.4m software units for Nintendo, 15.2m for Sony. These are the numbers that still include first party software and Nintendo already lost. Adjusting for third party software puts Nintendo at least 5m units below Sony.

If you had looked at these numbers, you wouldn't have come back with an answer like "I see heavy 3rd party support for the DS." The other option would be that you looked at them, but couldn't comprehend what you were seeing, but I rule this option out.

Despite the worldwide DS and Wii success, Nintendo in the eighth generation is basically in exactly the same spot they were in at the beginning of the seventh generation. Parity or slightly beating Sony in the hardware race just doesn't cut it and you should be worried.

I didn't look at the numbers at first, you are right. I went by memory, to be totally honest. DS Square games were flying by my head, and I didn't remember the same support on the PSP. I did a study and was going to reply to you, telling you how you could've answered me without being a total jerk, but then my computer turned off (my foot hit the power cord off switch :D). Apart from the way you made me feel (worthless), my view wasn't completely wrong, it just needed to be adjusted. You could've said "Phil, make an effort", but calling me deluded didn't make me feel good at all.

I'll post more on what I discovered today maybe tomorrow, but in essence I realized that for certain franchises you were very right, that 3rd parties offered their high-profile IPs to the PSP rather than the DS. For example, GTA had 4 different titles while the DS only had 1. A similar thing happened for Monster Hunter, where the PSP had 4 versions and the DS had 0. There are explanations to this, and see that now the 3DS actually has these games (so the HW probably had to play in this). But my view was not so terribly flawed, because my findings in Square-Enix were that, of the 22 PSP games they made, 9 were full new games (not ports or remakes). On the DS, there were alot of new games, and even some new IPs. I didn't finish the count (my computer turned off), but they had a total of fifty some DS games, many of which were not poor titles and were fresh new games. I guess I just had the wrong 3rd party in mind when I said that, and I'll certainly study it in more detail tomorrow.

By now, with the amount of effort and research I put into my posts, I just ask a minimal amount of trust, is all. If I made a mistake by going by memory and having a misplaced view while doing so, calling me delusional was not respectful of the effort I put when I post, neither is it something I enjoyed from a friend. I'm starting to think that that's my delusion, and maybe I care too much and I should just take it cool. For that you would probably be right and this would've been a very positive thing. So, ultimately, thanks for your post.



Surprised these threads get bigger each week, I thought people would be use to vita sales by now.

(Given I know the conversation has become about a variety of things)



 

RolStoppable said:
Acevil said:
Surprised these threads get bigger each week, I thought people would be use to vita sales by now.

Nobody is talking about current Vita sales. Most of the discussion is about people telling me that handhelds can do well with a price tag of $250 despite the lack of historical precedence.


I added a tidbit in my last post. Honestly speaking Rol, I agree with you, but again I don't want to join in.



 

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There is no good reason to think a handheld would do well at over 200 dollars. There will not be a reason to think this unless Vita posts good numbers in the West.

In Japan it is currently a foregone conclusion.

It is theoretically possible for handhelds to do well at over $200, but in order to do that they would need the sort of library that would create a positive value proposition even at that price point. No such handheld has ever existed, and it's unlikely that any such handheld ever will.

Vita needs a price cut in order to reach a parity in terms of value proposition. No single game that Sony can land on that platform will make it a positive value proposition in Japan, especially not with the 3DS standing right there, offering a more enticing value.



RolStoppable said:
happydolphin said:

I didn't look at the numbers at first, you are right. I went by memory, to be totally honest. DS Square games were flying by my head, and I didn't remember the same support on the PSP. I did a study and was going to reply to you, telling you how you could've answered me without being a total jerk, but then my computer turned off (my foot hit the power cord off switch :D). Apart from the way you made me feel (worthless), my view wasn't completely wrong, it just needed to be adjusted. You could've said "Phil, make an effort", but calling me deluded didn't make me feel good at all.

I'll post more on what I discovered today maybe tomorrow, but in essence I realized that for certain franchises you were very right, that 3rd parties offered their high-profile IPs to the PSP rather than the DS. For example, GTA had 4 different titles while the DS only had 1. A similar thing happened for Monster Hunter, where the PSP had 4 versions and the DS had 0. There are explanations to this, and see that now the 3DS actually has these games (so the HW probably had to play in this). But my view was not so terribly flawed, because my findings in Square-Enix were that, of the 22 PSP games they made, 9 were full new games (not ports or remakes). On the DS, there were alot of new games, and even some new IPs. I didn't finish the count (my computer turned off), but they had a total of fifty some DS games, many of which were not poor titles and were fresh new games. I guess I just had the wrong 3rd party in mind when I said that, and I'll certainly study it in more detail tomorrow.

By now, with the amount of effort and research I put into my posts, I just ask a minimal amount of trust, is all. If I made a mistake by going by memory and having a misplaced view while doing so, calling me delusional was not respectful of the effort I put when I post, neither is it something I enjoyed from a friend. I'm starting to think that that's my delusion, and maybe I care too much and I should just take it cool. For that you would probably be right and this would've been a very positive thing. So, ultimately, thanks for your post.

In general, I trust you. But when you come up with a reply that 100 % verifies that you didn't put any effort into it and completely ignored what I was saying, then it shows that you don't want to listen.

As for your most recent reply here, it is either missing the point or maybe you just want to do a general analysis of the entire generation which would be a separate discussion. What I am talking about is a shift in third party support that happened in the latter half of 2009. It doesn't matter how good the DS's and PSP's third party support was over the course of their entire lifecycles, what matters is the end of it, because that's telling us how third parties viewed Nintendo and Sony handhelds in recent years. If you go back to the year 2009, you'll see that DS third party software sales were roughly doubling those of the PSP, in 2010 the PSP had a slight lead and in 2011 the PSP had a notable lead over the DS and 3DS combined.

In other words, third party support for Nintendo handhelds has decreased significantly in the last couple of years while Sony made tremendous gains. Nintendo didn't enter this generation with third parties being confident in them, but rather the opposite. That's why it's completely wrong of you to assume that Nintendo basically had 3DS third party support in the bag. No, they have to earn it all over again. That's why the 3DS needed to sell exceptionally well out of the gate. That's why Nintendo needed to make a drastic price cut when the handheld didn't sell.

At times I feel like I am the only one who notices certain things. Hardly anyone ever mentioned this shift in third party support and most of the time in these Media Create threads I got the impression that people's explanation for the PSP's rise over the DS in Japan was simply "Sony is awesome and Nintendo sucks", completely ignoring that the PSP had a new game or two charting every week while the DS's pipeline of third party support was drying up.

I very much trust your opinion here especially in this post. I had noticed something fishy (especially the weekly Japanese charts), but just assumed it was a growing trend from day one. I will take a close look at it tomorrow.



RolStoppable said:

But without Mario Kart 7, they wouldn't have built up huge momentum in the first place. The 3DS would have been a $250 system with only one big original game and a bunch of remakes and ports.


Do you really think the successor to the DS launching early November with Nintendogs, Layton, Zelda, Street Fighter, Sonic and Resident Evil... With Mario 3D and Monster Hunter a Month later along with numerous other 3rd party games launching a Month later, wouldn't have momentum going into Jan/Feb/March until Mario Kart and the other "big" games release?

It would have certainly been selling higher than it was in May, June or July of 2011. Games would be releasing regularly. It would have been bringing in more money for Nintendo. It would have been an almost perfect launch.

Just to clarify to some other posts - I'm not saying any handheld can/could succeed at a £250 pricepoint. I'm saying the 3DS could have.

kowenicki said:

I agree with you too... but there is no way in hell they will listen to me.... I would just cause rage that would strengthen their resolve further.

I think you'd be okay unless you bring up racing games.



                            

RolStoppable said:

Yes, I think the 3DS would have dropped like a rock after the holiday season, because the system was priced out of the massmarket range. The question isn't if a $250 launch for the 3DS could have been better executed (because it obviously could as your example shows), but rather if the $250 price tag could have sustained for well over a year or two, because that's what shows the success of a product.

In your scenario, Mario Kart 7 would have given the 3DS another boost, but what about the summer months of 2012? 3DS sales would have gone down and down and down, forcing Nintendo to drop the price by at least $50 for the holiday season. So once again, within a year the price needed to be dropped.

As it is, the 3DS at $170 still has problems to put up good sales outside of Japan (January NPD suggests 200k in the USA); and even in Japan they aren't overly impressive either.


If we're talking sustained as in 2 Years, then I admit I'm wrong. I don't think the 3DS would have been able to hold the $250 pricepoint for 2 Years. I think it would have been fine with a cut taking it to $200 though, maybe before the Holiday push of 2012... Especially with Mario ready for it. They would still have been bringing in huge profits and I think sales would have been alright leading up to the Holiday push, staying at the front of the pack for Weekly sales.

January NPD has been suggested to be wrong. Really wrong by almost everybody. Even Pachter is calling it out. Using that to try prove a point wont work this time around. I also think 75k in Japan is pretty good considering one game worth buying has been released since December.

We might even have differing ideas on what a success would be for 2 Years at a +$200 pricepoint. Do you think that ~25 Million in 2 Years would have been good at above $200 on pure profit? I think 25 Million in 2 Years would have been doable (And good) for the 3DS if it released with the strategy I said. You probably disagree and I understand if/why you do.



                            

Carl2291 said:
RolStoppable said:

Yes, I think the 3DS would have dropped like a rock after the holiday season, because the system was priced out of the massmarket range. The question isn't if a $250 launch for the 3DS could have been better executed (because it obviously could as your example shows), but rather if the $250 price tag could have sustained for well over a year or two, because that's what shows the success of a product.

In your scenario, Mario Kart 7 would have given the 3DS another boost, but what about the summer months of 2012? 3DS sales would have gone down and down and down, forcing Nintendo to drop the price by at least $50 for the holiday season. So once again, within a year the price needed to be dropped.

As it is, the 3DS at $170 still has problems to put up good sales outside of Japan (January NPD suggests 200k in the USA); and even in Japan they aren't overly impressive either.


If we're talking sustained as in 2 Years, then I admit I'm wrong. I don't think the 3DS would have been able to hold the $250 pricepoint for 2 Years. I think it would have been fine with a cut taking it to $200 though, maybe before the Holiday push of 2012... Especially with Mario ready for it. They would still have been bringing in huge profits and I think sales would have been alright leading up to the Holiday push, staying at the front of the pack for Weekly sales.

January NPD has been suggested to be wrong. Really wrong by almost everybody. Even Pachter is calling it out. Using that to try prove a point wont work this time around. I also think 75k in Japan is pretty good considering one game worth buying has been released since December.

We might even have differing ideas on what a success would be for 2 Years at a +$200 pricepoint. Do you think that ~25 Million in 2 Years would have been good at above $200 on pure profit? I think 25 Million in 2 Years would have been doable (And good) for the 3DS if it released with the strategy I said. You probably disagree and I understand if/why you do.

I agree with this strategy. At 250$ for the holiday 2011 period with Mario 3DL and MK7, plus the usual holiday push, it would've sold with a holiday spike as usual, yielding high profits. If you'll say "then why didn't it work with the Vita at $250?", the simple answer is that, at that pricepoint, it's the games that matter, especially true during holiday season. And then, come summer, a cut to 200$ would've sufficed to sustain momentum, coupled with some casual offerings (since casuals buy at lower price).

But as I said in my earlier post, Carl (opinion which was ignored by all of you elite posters), is that Nintendo needed to release the 3DS early 2011 so as to ensure its foothold and early start in the market as compared to its competitor. For that reason, the 250$ pricepoint post holidays 2010 was impossible to sustain. 200$ thus at a post-holidays launch would've been a reasonable price for the hand-held. Coupled with low-cost AAA software (like 2D remakes) and Nintendo AAA big names as well as casual offerings, that was the only solution for a post-holiday launch, to keep investors happy. Also, predictions would have needed to fall some 5 millions, to say 10mil. Rol argues that 10mil was not enough to promote generation leadership of Nintendo, I'm still researching that. He may be right, but there are new factors to consider this gen (Playstation brand greatly diminished, Nintendo portable HW finally capable of high-end SD graphics, stronger 3rd party relations with certain devs).