There is no good reason to think a handheld would do well at over 200 dollars. There will not be a reason to think this unless Vita posts good numbers in the West.
In Japan it is currently a foregone conclusion.
It is theoretically possible for handhelds to do well at over $200, but in order to do that they would need the sort of library that would create a positive value proposition even at that price point. No such handheld has ever existed, and it's unlikely that any such handheld ever will.
Vita needs a price cut in order to reach a parity in terms of value proposition. No single game that Sony can land on that platform will make it a positive value proposition in Japan, especially not with the 3DS standing right there, offering a more enticing value.
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